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Here at Bracketville, you’ll find insights and updates, in-season information, unique Bracketville power rankings, and forward-thinking predictions for the NCAA Tournament. We’ve had three great seasons online and look forward to another adventure in 2011-2012. We’ve also partnered with NBCSports.com to provide bracket projections. Our results from 2011 are below.
SEASON OPENING UPDATES ..
BRACKET PROJECTION | Updated: Monday, JANUARY 23
POWER 24 | Monday, JANUARY 23.
2012 Conference Tournament schedules | October 14
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2011 RECAPS
From last spring: 2011 Projection Results | How did we do ?
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Latest bracket update: Missouri grabs top spot in West Region
Fresh off a win at Baylor, the Missouri Tigers grab the final No. 1 seed this week and head West. Kansas is this close behind as current leader of the Big 12. As we wrote Sunday in an Inside the Bracket column, the current landscape for No. 1 seed options includes the aforementioned Tigers and Jayhawks, plus Baylor and Duke. This week, it was a choice between Mizzou and KU. Arguments could be made either way, and there’s no right or wrong answer. Mizzou and KU still face each other twice, so it will be settled on the court – exactly how it should be. Don’t assume Baylor is out of the picture either. The Bears have re-matches with both the Jayhawks and Tigers. There’s also the Big 12 tournament.
With Duke’s loss to Florida State, the Blue Devils sit at No. 7 on the S-curve, sandwiched between Baylor (No. 6) and North Carolina (No. 8). Those are your two seeds – along with Kansas – for the January 23 bracket.
Schedule of key games to watch this week
The bracket remains fairly fluid in the middle, which isn’t uncommon. We had some interesting results the past eight days, and that trend is likely to continue. Conference play often provides an ebb and flow. Same with those teams hovering aroud the cutline. Bubble Banter will return in early February, and that figures to be quite an adventure. This week’s Last 5 IN – St. Louis, NC State, Marshall, Iowa State, and Oregon. The First 5 OUT – Stanford, Northwestern, BYU, Mississippi, Arkansas.
Not a lot of projected changes at the bottom of the bracket. Nevada moves in as the representative from the WAC. The Wolfpack would be a fringe at-large candidate and could stay there if they win the league in dominant fashion. Time will tell. Enjoy another great week of hoops, and thanks for your interest.
Inside the Bracket: No. 1 seeds and Quick Takes from Saturday
When a new bracket appears on Monday, Kentucky, Syracuse, and Ohio State will remain as No. 1 seeds. Yes, Syracuse lost at Notre Dame on Saturday, but the Orange were not headed to the NCAAs with a perfect record. That’s unrealistic when you play in a Top 10 RPI conference. It’s more likely that Syracuse will have two or three losses by Selection Sunday. If that’s the case, SU could/should be a No. 1 seed. The question: Which teams are currently in the hunt for the final No. 1 seed? Data comes from collegerpi.com.
The best candidates right now are Duke and three teams from the Big 12: Missouri, Kansas, and Baylor. Some people will point at Duke’s home loss to Florida State and discard the Blue Devils. Just keep in mind that Duke is 4-2 vs. Top 25 RPI teams – including non-conference wins over Michigan State and Kansas. The Blue Devils have also beaten Michigan, Virginia, and Davidson - a team that won at Kansas - and boast the nation’s No. 1 strength-of-schedule. Duke may or may not be one of the best four teams, but the Blue Devils’ overall resume is still pretty strong. We’ve seen it before: if Duke wins both an ACC league and/or ACC tournament title, the Blue Devils could again be a top seed.
Missouri boasts an impressive 18-1 record and is coming off a strong road victory at Baylor. By comparison, the Tigers’ are 2-0 against Top 25 (RPI) teams and 3-1 vs. the Top 50. Missouri’s best additional wins: Illinois, California, Iowa State, and Texas. Of those, only Illinois is a confident NCAA pick at this juncture. As a footnote: Missouri’s non-conference SOS ranks No. 260 – Duke’s non-conference SOS is No. 3
Kansas leads the Big 12 and dominated Baylor in Lawrence. KU still plays Missouri twice, so that will be a huge factor in the final analysis. The Jayhawks are 5-3 vs. Top 50 teams and 8-3 vs. the Top 100. That ties them with Duke (and a few others) for the most Top 100 wins, and is only behind Syracuse (10 Top 100 wins). KU’s losses are on neutral courts to Duke and Kentucky, plus a home loss to Davidson. The Jayhawks have wins over Baylor, Ohio State (no Jared Sullinger), Georgetown, and Kansas State. Those are four tournament level teams.
Baylor had a tough schedule this past week, visiting Kansas and hosting Missouri. A split (road/home) would have been expected. Instead, Baylor lost both and is now two-games back of Kansas. Overall, Baylor is 7-1 away from home and 4-1 in true road games. Those are strong numbers. Road wins include Kansas State, Northwestern (by 27), and BYU. There are questions about Baylor’s ability to win physical games, but the Bears’ resume to date remains impressive. Their only losses are to teams mentioned here as potential No. 1 seeds. Read more…
Baylor joins No. 1 seeds in January 16 bracket projection …
It really wasn’t that difficult determining the No. 1 seeds this week. It came down to Ohio State and Duke after North Carolina absorbed a 33-point loss at Florida State. While individual head-to-head results aren’t a huge factor in final selection or seeding, the Buckeyes soundly beat Duke in Columbus during the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. It’s enough of an edge to move forward realizing we still have two months of basketball before Selection Sunday. Duke is close behind the Buckeyes, though, with a strong number of Top 100 RPI wins. Your No. 1 seeds this week: Syracuse (East), Kentucky (South), Baylor (West) and Ohio State (Midwest). The South Region is a more natural base for UK and the mileage difference between Atlanta and St. Louis is minimal, so that’s why we have the Wildcats placed in Georgia. It also makes more sense to slot Baylor toward Phoenix than St. Louis or Atlanta. It’ll be interesting to see how the Selection Committee views those decisions.
January 16 Bracket Projection – through games Sunday, January 15
Schedule of key games this week.
The toughest part of this bracket (as usual) was determining the last few teams in. Take, for example, Cincinnati. Since a troublesome opening month and a brawl with Xavier, the Bearcats have played basketball worthy of NCAA consideration. But we can’t just forget November and December, and neither will Selection Committee members in March. Cincinnati played a non-conference strength-of-schedule ranked No. 323, and has one victory over a team that today would be in the NCAA tournament (at Georgetown). Positives include a 4-1 record in true road games and a 4-1 mark in the Big East standings through Sunday’s games. According to CollegeRPI.com, UC began the day with an RPI of 107. A team with that overall profile would not be an at-large team in March. What the past three weeks have done is move Cincinnati into consideration, which is a long way from where the Bearcats were in late December. As for the remaining teams along the cutline, all have flaws. We focused on quality wins, schedule strength, and wins over teams in the projected field as determining factors.
It’s still a bit early to be overly concerned with league standings. Conference pecking order will be more important once we hit the midway point in late January or early February. Look no further than Kansas State: the Wildcats opened Big 12 play with Kansas, Missouri, Baylor and Oklahoma. K-State lost to Kansas and Baylor, and beat Missouri. And the Baylor game was a close one in Manhattan. So a 1-3 mark (despite a somewhat surprising loss at Oklahoma) isn’t nearly as bad as it might look. The Wildcats play Texas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech in their next three. Let’s reserve judgement on K-State’s league standing until the schedule evens. That goes for a lot of teams.
Enjoy another great week of hoops. And thanks for your interest at Bracketville.
Inside the Bracket: Why Pac-12 teams face an uphill climb toward NCAA selection …
The Pac-12 Conference is on a familiar path: There’s trouble brewing as we move toward Selection Sunday.
The Pac-12 currently ranks 9th in Conference RPI at CollegeRPI.com (through January 12 games). That’s behind the Mountain West (6), Atlantic 10 (7), and Missouri Valley (8). Curious enough, as a conference, Pac-12 teams have records of 3-11 vs. the Mountain West, 3-2 vs. the Atlantic 10, and 0-1 vs. the MVC. Against BCS leagues, the Pac-12 is 10-19. The best of those efforts is a 3-3 mark against the ACC (4th in Conference RPI).
For all those numbers, the more important reality remains individual team performances. Stanford, California, and Arizona are the best at-large hopefuls right now. Of those three, Stanford has the top at-large profile with non-conference wins over Colorado State, Oklahoma State, and NC State. How confident should the Cardinal be about those wins pushing them into the NCAA field? Hard to say. Colorado State and NC State are potential at-large contenders, but we can’t say those are definite NCAA level wins. Meanwhile, Stanford’s non-conference strength-of-schedule ranks No. 267.
California’s best win is at home to Denver, one of the two best teams in the Sun Belt. The Bears have lost to the other potential non-conference NCAA teams on its schedule: Missouri (neutral), at San Diego State, and at UNLV. Only the SDSU game was close.
Arizona has non-league wins over St. John’s and at WAC leader New Mexico State. The Wildcats finished 0-4 vs. other NCAA-level teams on their non-conference schedule (Mississippi State, San Diego State, Florida, Gonzaga).
For those wondering about Washington, Oregon, and UCLA … Washington’s best non-conference win is UC-Santa Barbara; Oregon’s is at Nebraska, and UCLA’s is Richmond. Could Pac-12 teams win games in the NCAA Tournament? Sure. But it looks unlikely that more than 2 or 3 teams will make it. And those teams need to separate and put together strong conference records. Either that, or win the Pac-12 tournament.
Seton Hall, West Virginia among biggest movers in January 9 bracket
Another week closer to Selection Sunday, and Seton Hall and West Virginia are the week’s biggest movers. Michigan State and Indiana also climb, anchoring 2-seeds in the East (Indiana) and Midwest (Michigan State). Our No. 1 seeds remain the same: Syracuse, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State. Baylor would be next in line.
Bracket Projection - January 9
Power 24 – January 9
Schedule of Key Games
The bracket is still very fluid. And there’s a very fine line between the final few teams selected, and those among the first teams out. One of the biggest factors used this week was non-conference strength-of-schedule and overall strength-of-schedule. Those number can play a key role among those final teams. So if you’re wondering why a team like Cincinnati remains out – besides a lack of quality wins – look no further than a non-conference SOS that ranks No. 317 – among the bottom 25 in college hoops. Other teams with that issue include Oregon State (No. 325) and Wyoming (No. 318). We’ll have more on that later during an Inside the Bracket column.
We’ll also talk more about the Pac-12, which retains three teams this week, but none higher than a 10-seed: Stanford. Arizona is among our Last 5 teams in. Could those teams win a game or two? Absolutely. Washington is very talented, too But the Huskies have to make the Field of 68 first.
The Big Ten remains the conference leader (No. 1 in the RPI) and has eight teams in the bracket today. Minnesota (now 0-4 in the Big 10) drops out; and Northwestern is just one line on the s-curve above the play-in games in Dayton. That’s largely due to an early win over Seton Hall and no bad losses. That said, the Wildcats will not make the NCAAs if they continue to lose home games.
Enjoy the latest bracket. More to come this week.
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