Bracketology: Final spots go “On the Road”

So here it is.  We have about a dozen teams fighting for precious spots as we  turn the page toward March.  Make no mistake, plenty of games this weekend have huge bracket and bubble implications.  Our schedule page has all the details.  As you review our latest bracket keep in mind two things:

1. Road wins provided a tie-breaker in close calls
2. Road games remaining played a role in team expectations.

For the latest Bracketville ‘09 projections, check out Bracketology.

Why the caveat?  Penn State remains among that last five in largely because of wins at Michigan State and at Illinois (however low scoring).  Virginia Tech moves past Maryland because the Hokies have won games at Clemson, at Wake Forest, and at Miami.  UNLV has wins at Louisville and @ BYU.

Around the Rim: How injuries impact selection/seeding

Losing Dominic James to a broken foot certainly hurts Marquette. He was part of a dynamic three-guard offense and an exceptional defender. You hate to see any player injured – it’s especially tough when the player’s a senior on a team having an excellent season. We wish him a full recovery.

Just how does James’ injury affect Marquette come Selection Sunday?  That will depend largely on how the team plays without him over the next couple of weeks.  Not only is it bad timing because of the NCAA Tournament, but the Golden Eagles are also entering the toughest part of their schedule.  As the Selection Committee accounts for James’ absence, they will have to not only evaluate wins and losses, but assess the team’s overall performance without James.  If Marquette performs well, seeding effects will be minimal. Should the Golden Eagles struggle, where best to place them in the Bracket will be a much tougher decision.  Will they be a four seed?  Five?  Or without James are they a six or seven seed?  Hard to say.  We’ll know a lot more prior to the Big East Tournament in New York.

Latest Bracket: A lot of sorting out to do …

It should be a race – or perhaps a train wreck – over the next couple of weeks.  Look at teams seeded 8-lower right in our latest bracket projection (2/23) and you’ll know why.  Some of their profiles look like swiss cheese.   That said, we’ve done our best to assess performance to date with remaining potential.  On the positive side, it makes this closing stretch even more exciting.  Can you believe some conference tournaments start next week?

Our newest NCAA bracket projection is now posted in Bracketology.

Potential is a big concern for a team like Maryland. At 17-9 and 6-6 in the ACC, the Terrapins are a classic bubble team. 

Bubble expands as we enter crunch time

The NCAA Tournament bubble is expanding right now.  That’s probably not a big surprise.  History suggests it might even become more fluid in the next seven days before teams play their way in or out heading into conference tournaments.  More on the tournaments to come.

Bubble Banter is now updated through all games on Sunday, February 22.  See where team’s stand.

Around the Rim: Bracket Buster implications

In terms of NCAA Tournament importance, this year’s Bracket Busters was a bit light regarding at-large selection, save these teams: Butler, Davidson, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Siena.  For the Bulldogs, Wildcats, Aggies, Gaels and Saints, the 2009 Bracket Buster plays out like this …

Butler Bulldogs – The win at Davidson gives BU another quality out-of-conference win on the road (Xavier was the other).  The Bulldogs also beat UAB (a potential bubble team) and played close at Ohio State – when David Lighty was healthy.  Granted Stephen Curry was not 100 percent for this one, the Butler’s “D” locked him up.  There are no guarantees, but this win will help the Bulldogs on Selection Sunday.