ATR: Sweet 16 overview …

A week into the Madness.  Time for the Sweet 16.  Other than Arizona, not a lot of surprises this year.  In fact, the top three seeds in all four regions are represented.  Take out the aforementioned Wildcats and chalk has largely ruled the tournament after two rounds.  That in mind, here’s my Sweet 16 breakdown …

WEST REGION

Connecticut vs. Purdue – The Boilermakers are playing some of their best basketball, largely because they’re healthy.  But for Purdue to pull an upset the Boilers will have to have an explosive night from beyond the arc.  Remember, the Huskies also play in-your-face defense, and generally don’t foul.  UConn also appears very motivated and focused on both ends.  Pick: Connecticut.

Missouri vs. Memphis – An interesting game that seems destined for scrambling, wild plays, big runs, and lots of free-throws.  How will Memphis handle the 40 minutes of pressure?  Can Missouri get quality shots against a tough Memphis D?  It probably comes down to turnovers.  If Mizzou forces Tyreke Evans into a lot of mistakes, the lower-seeded Tigers can win.  My bet?  Memphis makes enough plays to get the job done.  Pick: Memphis.

Bracket Picks: One road to the Final Four …

Time to put in on the line.   Just know that having some knowledge about putting together an NCAA bracket projection and successfully picking actual tournament games are two separate things.  That said, here’s my picks round-by-round, region by region … but first, the Final Four: Louisville, Connecticut, Duke, North Carolina …

NCAA upsets and teams to trust (or not) …

Ready for the Madness? Just about time for the fun to begin. My thoughts on teams I don’t trust and those who might be undervalued are below, as are my thoughts on potential first-round upsets. Of course, I reserve the right to be completely wrong by Thursday night – or Friday. I’ll have my full picks posted Wednesday night.

Teams I don’t trust … Arizona, Arizona State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Michigan, Florida State, Texas

Teams I think are undervalued … Purdue (now healthy), West Virginia, Cleveland State, Marquette, Siena

Best chances for an early upset …

• (11) VCU over (6) UCLA
• (12) Wisconsin over (5) Florida State – note FSU vs. Northwestern
• (11) Temple over (6) Arizona State
• (10) Maryland over (7) California
• (13) Cleveland State over (4) Wake Forest – CSU won at Syracuse

I’ll try to provide thoughts and notes throughout the tournament. Disagree? Have a thought? Send a Rebound – Dave

Bracketology – 2009 Results

Thanks again to everyone who stopped in and participated in BRACKETVille’s first year online. It was great fun. Here is a quick recap of my performance compared to the actual NCAA bracket …

• Correctly identified 33 of 34 at-large teams (I don’t count correct predictions of automatic bids). I missed Arizona in favor of Penn State based on several factors, one being that PSU won two meaningful road games (@Michigan State, @Illinois) and Arizona was 2-9 in true road games (@Oregon, @Oregon State).
• I had 34 teams on the correct seed line.
• I had another 21 within one seed of actual. That’s a total of 55 teams either on or within one of their actual seed. Those missing by more than one seed line: VCU (13 vs. 11), Boston College (10 vs. 7), Utah (7 vs. 5), Clemson (5 vs. 7), Cleveland State (11 vs. 13), Cornell (16 vs. 14), Xavier (6 vs. 4), Mississippi State (11 vs. 13), East Tennessee State (14. 16).
• Correctly identified all three top seed lines. I flipped UNC and Pittsburgh in the East vs. South.

I’ll provide some thoughts about the matchups and offer some picks for the actual bracket soon. I’ll also do some blogging updates during the tournament. During the “off-season” I hope to make some upgrades and expand the blog.

If you have suggestions, please send a rebound. – Dave

Bracketology: Selection Sunday – Final

Just over an hour until the Selection Committee reveals is 2009 Field of 65 and the Madness Begins.  It has been great fun going online for the first time.  I think everyone whose taken a peak, sent a rebound, and been part of the fun.  Hopefully, you’ve enjoyed BracketVILLE ‘09.

FINAL BRACKET is now posted in Bracketology.

I will not be surprised nor disappointed at the results.  How each committee member evaluated several flawed teams will be interesting.   Here are the my final results …

LAST 5 IN: Dayton, Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Penn State

LAST 5 OUT: Creighton, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Arizona, Auburn

Mississippi State took a final spot by beating Tennessee in the SEC title game.  I ultimately stuck with Penn State because of its 6 wins over Top 50 RPI teams (most on the bubble) and two big road wins that no one else had.  This overcame a horrible non-conference SOS. 

Over the years, I’ve been pretty successful – missing more than one at-large team only once in seven years.  But it’s truly more about the journey.  I have great respect for the men and women who make the decisons and do not necessarily try to predict what they will do.  Have thoughts – please Send a Rebound.

I’ll provide my tournament picks this week.  And a recap either later tonight or Monday.  – Dave the Bracketguy.