Pre-season Bracket Projection: Midnight Madness edition

Welcome to Bracketville

Welcome back, college hoops.   Time for a little pre-season fun, Midnight Madness style.

After a rather interesting off-season - my Top 5 story lines here – let’s take an updated look the new 68-team bracket.  Quick note of caution … selecting and seeding teams for a bracket projection in March is easier than estimating what might happen over the next five months. So consider this effort what it is:  a mix of what we know, what we expect, and a lot of guesswork.

UPDATE (11/6/2010): The Midnight Madness edition is now longer available.  It has been replaced with our Season-Opening edition – a few minor tweaks/updates included.  Below is the rest of the column regarding the Midnight Madness edition.  

If there is common ground, it’s that defending champ Duke should open the season as the No. 1 team.  No exception here as the Blue Devils remain the overall top seed.  From there, we start tweaking.  Joining Duke on the top line are: Purdue, Michigan State and Pittsburgh.  The Panthers made the biggest leap, but coach Jamie Dixon is bullish on his team and we’ll buy it.  The uncertainty surrounding star recruits at Kentucky (Enes Kanter) and Kansas (Josh Selby) are also considerations.  Both the Wildcats and Jayhawks lead a group of solid No. 2 seeds along with Ohio State and Kansas State.  Syracuse, Villanova, Florida and Memphis fall into the three-line.  Talk about powerhouse names.

First Four:  The new format begins with four games in Dayton.   Projected matchups … New Mexico vs. Dayton | Louisville vs. USC | Lehigh vs. Vermont | Jackson State vs. S.F. Austin.  In this scenario, New Mexico, Dayton, Louisville and USC are the last four at-large teams in the field.  Lehigh, Vermont, Jackson State and S.F. Austin are projected as the lowest four ranked teams on the S-curve.

Last 5 IN: Northwestern, New Mexico, USC, Louisville, Dayton.  First 5 OUT: Maryland, Connecticut, Northern Iowa, St. Louis, Notre Dame.

We all know there will be a surprise or two along the way – especially in conference tournaments.  One could easily argue that Illinois and Virginia Tech missed last year’s tournament because New Mexico State (WAC) and Houston (C-USA) won their league tournaments.  It happens almost every year and teams on the bubble this March will face the same fate – even with the expanded field.  Someone will always be the first team out.

For those new to Bracketville, links for the Schedule (upcoming key games), Bubble Banter, and Conference Tourneys will be updated as warranted.  Team Capsules highlights key wins and losses for schools under consideration.  If you want to know how we did last season, check out 2010 Projection Results.

Take a look.  Send a rebound.  Differences of opinion are part of the fun.  Follow college hoops on www.nbcsports.com; I’m excited about our second year of partnership.  Follow along on Twitter and e-mail us a bracketville.hoops@gmail.com.  More to come.  The regular season is just around the corner.

Top Five stories from a busy NCAA summer …

Welcome to Bracketville

Ready again for college hoops?  In anticipation of the Midnight Madness bracket projection here at Bracketville, time for a quick peek at the Top Five stories from the NCAA off-season. Let’s go …

No. 5 – Kyle Singler returns to Duke: Matched with Nolan Smith and super-recruit Kyrie Irving, Duke will try to match Florida’s back-to-back titles in 2006-2007.  Prior to the Gators’ run, the Blue Devils pulled off the repeat in 1991-1992.  Not sure it’s going to happen, but the crazies from Durham have been a front-runner since May.

No. 4 – Tom Izzo stays at Michigan State: After a lengthy back-and-forth with the Cleveland Cavaliers, one of college hoop’s finest decides to stay in East Lansing.  Forget that LeBron James bolted for Miami, Izzo made the right choice.  He’s a college guy and has an amazing track record at Michigan State.  Think about this … which is hard to remember, when MSU made the Final Four or missed it?  By the way, the Spartans could easily make a third straight trip. 

No. 3 – Recruiting issues at UConn and Tennessee: What a mess for two noteworthy programs.  How much the allegations, potential penalties, and turmoil affect on-court performance remains to be seen.  But it’s not looking good for the Huskies or Volunteers.  Teams have been known to unite in difficult times; they’ve also been known to fall apart.  Given the uncertainty ahead, the latter seems more likely. Update: The NCAA is also now sniffing around at Baylor

No. 2 – Player eligibility: While Dee Bost is back at Mississippi State (albeit with a nine-game suspension), Kentucky and Kansas await major decisions regarding two high-profile recruits … Enes Kanter (UK) and Josh Selby (KU).  The NCAA outcome could certainly change the fortunes of either squad.  Guess here is that both play this season.  How much remains to be seen.  Update: There’s also the case of LaceDarius Dunn at Baylor.  Suspended, somewhat reinstated, but unknown.  The Bears could be a middle-of-the-pack team without him.

No. 1 – Tournament expands to 68 teams:  Better than a once-debated 96-team field, the NCAA added three more at-large bids to create its newest format. Dubbed the First Four, Dayton will host a series of four “play in” games to finalize the traditional 64-team field. The First Four will match the four lowest rated S-curve teams and the last four at-large teams. For the first time, the NCAA Selection Committee will have to reveal its final at-large teams.

As always, rebounds are welcome.  Follow along on Twitter, or send an e-mail to bracketville.hoops@gmail.com.  Here’s to another great season of college hoops.  Tell your friends.  Thanks for visiting Bracketville.