Countdown to March: Top seeds remain the same

After a somewhat bumpy weekend, not a lot has changed from Saturday.  Kentucky (South), Syracuse (East), Michigan State (Midwest), and Kansas (West) remain No. 1 seeds.  Ohio State’s home loss to Wisconsin drops the Buckeyes to No. 8 on the s-curve.  That means the Buckeyes are one spot from falling to a No. 3 seed.  Baylor, Marquette, and Georgetown are all in play for OSU’s spot heading into the final two weeks of the season.

Duke is next in line for a one-seed and does hold tie-breaker advantages over both MSU and KU thanks to head-to-head victories.  As we noted Saturday, however, the Spartans and Jayhawks both have outright leads in the Big Ten and Big 12.  Although Duke won the its initial matchup with North Carolina, the Blue Devils and Tar Heels are tied for the ACC lead.

February 27 Bracket Projection – Bracketology

Overall, we have just two changes to today’s bracket – plus some minor seeding adjustments.  Colorado State and Arizona slide out.  St. Joseph’s and Northwestern move in and join the First Four groupings in Dayton.  In Arizona’s case, the Wildcats were simply passed on the s-curve. Barely beating UCLA at home wasn’t enough t0 help UA hold its final at-large position.  Colorado State lost at San Diego State.  Not a bad loss, but it drops the Rams to 2-9 on the road.  St. Joseph’s (Creighton) and Northwestern (Seton Hall) also have better out-of-conference wins than CSU.

The margins separating these teams – along with several others – are very thin.  Expect the give and take to continue until someone plays their way in, or more likely, out.  Among those considered for the final spots, Northwestern was the only team without a sub-100 RPI loss.  In fact, all but two of the Wildcats’ losses have come to Top 40 RPI teams.  That alone won’t carry NW into the NCAAs, but it’s enough to give them a slight edge today.  Compared side-by-side, Northwestern has six (6) Top 100 wins while Miami has three (3).  That and a higher strength of schedule gives the Wildcats a small edge on the Hurricanes.

You’ll notice that both First Four winners are slotted into 11-seed locations.  As one at-large First Four game will be played Tuesday and one Wednesday, the Selection Committee will try to locate one to a Thursday-Saturday site and one to a Friday-Sunday site.  That is replicated here.  The only way that could be accomplished within the current bracket was to send them to Louisville and Columbus (plus both are close for travel from Dayton).  Washington and Southern Mississippi fall to the 12-seed line by virtue of the procedural bump.

March is three days away.  Enjoy the hoops.

Saturday bracket update: No. 1 seeds up for grabs

We are two weeks from Selection Sunday and only two of four No. 1 seeds appear to be locked in place: Kentucky and Syracuse.  Six teams are wrangling for those final two spots – most likely in the Midwest and West Regions.  While the South Region appears to be a more natural fit for Kentucky, it’s possible the Wildcats could be routed through St. Louis, which is a few miles closer to Lexington than Atlanta.  With Kansas and Missouri among the teams in contention for that region, however, it seems more plausible that UK will feed through the South.  Just something to keep in mind.

Duke, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Ohio State join KU and Mizzou as potential No. 1 seeds.  Both Duke and North Carolina and Michigan State and Ohio State play each other again in the regular season.  We could easily see a third matchup in the ACC and Big Ten conference tournaments.  So the race is far from over.  Conference championships (regular season and/or conference tourney) will likely prove decisive.

February 25 Bracket Projection – Bracketology

In today’s bracket, Michigan State (Midwest) and Kansas (West) grab the final No. 1 seed positions.  A quick note of explanation: Duke beat both the Spartans and Jayhawks on neutral courts in November.  Those are important victories that could ultimately work in the Blue Devils’ favor.  As of this bracket, however, Michigan State and Kansas have outright leads in their respective conferences.  That’s why MSU and KU have been slotted just ahead of Duke on the s-curve.  Safe to say, we have a lot of basketball left.   For those wondering, spots 5-8 on the s-curve are listed like this: Duke, Missouri, Ohio State, North Carolina.

Today’s update also features a unique situation in the First Four.  Dayton is among those teams - slotted against Texas in an opening round game.  There is no bracketing provision that excludes Dayton from playing on its home floor if the Flyers are indeed a First Four participant.  This was covered by the NCAA during the Mock Selection exercise in Indianapolis.  The winner of the Dayton-Texas game heads to Nashville for a matchup with Louisville.  The other at-large First Four game is Colorado State and Arizona.  That winner heads to Portland to battle Wisconsin.  As a point of reference, the Selection Committee will try to route one at-large matchup winner to a Thursday/Saturday site and one to a Friday/Sunday site unless no options are available.  One of the at-large games will be played Tuesday and one Wednesday.

Enjoy a great weekend of hoops.

Bubble Banter: West Virginia continues slide toward bubble trouble

Marquette rallied in Morgantown Friday night and handed West Virginia its seventh loss in nine games.  The Mountaineers are sliding, and headed straight toward potential bubble trouble.  Not that WVU is alone.  Mississippi State and Southern Mississippi have created their own issues.  Southern Miss has lost back-to-back games to Houston and UTEP – which follows an earlier loss this month to UAB.  Mississippi State has lost four straight and now leaves home for two straight SEC road games – starting at Alabama.  It’s never easy to close out an NCAA bid.

February 24 Bubble Banter

Championship Week is shaping up to be quite interesting.  What are the odds that conference favorites all win their tournaments?  Less that fifty percent, most likely.  That means we’ll have a few bid stealers before Selection Sunday.  It’s almost March.  Who’s ready for a little Madness?

Enjoy a great weekend of hoops.  I’ll try to have more frequent updates as we go through the final two weeks.

Michigan State joins No. 1 seed line in latest bracket

Fresh off road wins at Ohio State and Purdue, the Michigan State Spartans have not only grabbed first place in the Big Ten but also a No. 1 seed in this week’s bracket projection.  MSU is 7-3 vs. teams currently ranked in the Top 25 of the RPI, which is two more such victories than Duke or Kansas.  The Spartans also own the nation’s second best overall strength of schedule, and haven’t lost in the month of February.  Kansas falls in at No. 5 on the s-curve, follwed by Duke, Ohio State, and North Carolina.  Kentucky, Syracuse, and Missouri are the other No. 1 seeds today.

The middle and bottom portions of the bracket remain very unsettled.  Other than New Mexico, it was an interesting week in the Mountain West, as both UNLV and San Diego State lost multiple games.  The Lobos are now alone in first place.  As for the bubble, it’s as weak as ever.  If teams like Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee State, Oral Roberts, and Iona don’t win automatic bids, it will interesting to see how many (if any) of those schools might grab an at-large.  Championship Week is shaping up as a week that could shake-up the bracket .

Bubble Banter will be updated later in the week, and it will provide a better glimpse into where we stand.  Most teams currently on the 8-seed line or below have potential issues with their at-large resumes.  Some cases are stronger than others, but there’s a reason they are located in those spots on the s-curve.  We could still see a lot of fluctuation.

Here are a few final thoughts from the Mock Selection exercise last week in Indianapolis.  A team’s entire body of work is evaluated.  Games in November count the same as February or March … Head-to-head results are considered, but only as one part of a team’s profile.  Just because Team A beat Team B doesn’t necessarily mean Team A has a better overall profile … One good win or one bad loss doesn’t define a team’s season … During our evaluations, a team’s league record was rarely discussed … Strength of schedule (particularly out of conference) was a significant consideration for teams whose overall body of work was somewhat questionnable … Teams did receive consideration for players who missed part of the season (not brawl/fight related) … Sometimes the “eye test” is important, which is why Selection Committee members watch so many games … Discussions can be very insightful.  While voting is private, open debate about particular teams is beneficial duing the evaluation process.

Enjoy a great week of hoops.  We’re just three weeks away from Selection Sunday.

The Mock Bracket and Day 2 wrap-up from Indy

Those of us fortunate enough to have participated in the NCAA Mock Selection process learned first hand that there’s no such thing as a perfect bracket.  Even with 37 at-large bids available, there’s always team No. 38.  You can’t escape tough decisions.

Committee Chair Jeff Hathaway said he and his fellow Selection Committee members realize the scrutiny involved with putting together what we know as March Madness.  It’s one reason why the NCAA has made the process more transparent in recent years.  The Mock Selection exercise is just one example.  This year, the NCAA’s official RPI, Team Sheets, and Nitty Gritty reports are available online at www.ncaa.org.  Anyone with a computer and an internet connection can view the same reports and data used by committee members.  You can even find the Principles and Procedures for Establishing the bracket at the NCAA site.

Here are few quick notes from Friday:

Seeding the Field of 68 isn’t completed until all 68 teams are selected.  Team A doesn’t have be placed as an 11 or 12 seed just because it was one of the final at-large teams selected.  As “scrubbing” of teams is completed, the s-curve changes.  During our mock exercise, we ultimately moved a few teams around on the s-curve before we began placing them into the bracket.  NCAA team members said this is a common occurrence.  Teams move up or down during the final rankings, and sometimes those teams are moved a seed line to accommodate the bracketing process.

Greg Shaheen of the NCAA said the Selection Committee often spends up to 40 hours “scrubbing” teams during the seeding process.  You may disagree with where a team ends up, but it’s not because every team wasn’t thoroughly evaluated.  As a reference, we spent about an hour and a half “scrubbing” through the seed lines.

A group of committee members is assigned specifically to the bottom quadrant (Seeds 13-16).  Although 13-16 seeds are often automatic qualifiers, Hathaway stressed that it’s important for every team to be evaluated and seeded correctly.