Bracketology
Welcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology. This is where you will find bracket projections and seedings for the 2013 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication (update) the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape stands. The closer we get to Selection Sunday, the bracket reflects a more “season ending today” approach.
UPDATED: March 17, 2013 | 4:30 p.m. ET – FINAL BRACKET
Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.
FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)
- Tennessee vs. Saint Mary’s | East Region
- Boise State vs. La Salle | South Region
- JAMES MADISON vs. NO CAROLINA AT | East Region
- SOUTHERN vs. LIBERTY | Midwest Region
BRACKET PROJECTION …
| EAST – Washington, DC | MIDWEST- Indianapolis | |
| Lexington | Dayton | |
| 1) LOUISVILLE | 1) Indiana | |
| 16) JAMES MADISON / NC A&T | 16) LIBERTY / SOUTHERN | |
| 8) Illinois | 8) NC State | |
| 9) Wichita State | 9) San Diego State | |
| San Jose | Kansas City | |
| 5) UNLV | 5) Marquette | |
| 12) Saint Mary’s / Tennessee | 12) BELMONT | |
| 4) SAINT LOUIS | 4) Kansas State | |
| 13) DAVIDSON | 13) SOUTH DAKOTA ST | |
| Dayton | Austin | |
| 6) Notre Dame | 6) VCU | |
| 11) MISSISSIPPI | 11) California | |
| 3) OHIO STATE | 3) Florida | |
| 14) NORTHWESTERN STATE | 14) HARVARD | |
| Lexington | Philadelphia | |
| 7) UCLA | 7) CREIGHTON | |
| 10) Temple | 10) Minnesota | |
| 2) MIAMI-FL | 2) Georgetown | |
| 15) ALBANY | 15) IONA | |
| SOUTH – Dallas | WEST – Los Angeles | |
| Philadelphia | Kansas City | |
| 1) Duke | 1) KANSAS | |
| 16) LIU-BROOKLYN | 16) WESTERN KENTUCKY | |
| 8) Missouri | 8) Colorado State | |
| 9) MEMPHIS | 9) Cincinnati | |
| Austin | San Jose | |
| 5) Oklahoma State | 5) Arizona | |
| 12) Boise State / La Salle | 12) BUCKNELL | |
| 4) Syracuse | 4) Wisconsin | |
| 13) AKRON | 13) NEW MEXICO STATE | |
| Auburn Hills | Auburn Hills | |
| 6) Butler | 6) Pittsburgh | |
| 11) Oklahoma | 11) Iowa State | |
| 3) Michigan State | 3) Michigan | |
| 14) FLA GULF COAST | 14) VALPARAISO | |
| Salt Lake | Salt Lake | |
| 7) OREGON | 7) North Carolina | |
| 10) Villanova | 10) Colorado | |
| 2) NEW MEXICO | 2) GONZAGA | |
| 15) PACIFIC | 15) MONTANA |
NOTES on the BRACKET: Indiana is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Louisville, Duke, and Kansas. Next in line: Gonzaga, Georgetown, New Mexico, Miami-FL
Last Five teams in (at large): Oklahoma, Boise State, Tennessee, La Salle, Saint Mary’s
First Five teams out (at large): Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts
Next five teams out (at large): Iowa, Alabama, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Stephen F. Austin
Breakdown by Conference …
Big East (8): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova
Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois
Mountain West (5): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State
Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon, California
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Atlantic 10 (5): Butler, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Saint Louis
ACC (4): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Miami-FL
SEC (4): Missouri, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi
Missouri Valley (2): CREIGHTON, Wichita State
West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Conference Automatic Qualifiers … BELMONT (Ohio Valley), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), BUCKNELL (Patriot), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), VALPARAISO (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC), IONA (MAAC), NORTHWESTERN STATE (Southland), AKRON (MAC), FLORIDA GULF COAST (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), PACIFIC (Big West), JAMES MADISON (Colonial), ALBANY (American East), MONTANA (Big Sky), NORTH CAROLINA A&T (MEAC), LIBERTY (Big South), LIU-BROOKLYN (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)
There will be at least 2 conf. Usa teams thats a fact. Memphis , S.Miss will finish in top 35 pf rpi and utep will be in tje 40s due to their top 20 schedule. Indiana st. will only get in if tn tourney.
Only 1 C-USA team made it.
Nothing is a fact until all of the games have been played. This is a great site to speculate based on what has happened so far to determine what the tournament would look like. I have been following this site for a few years now and nobody is more accurate – so for those teams in the CUSA who want to be an at large have some more work to do to overtake other teams.
I hate Southern Miss’s credentials but a top 35 RPI has to get you a top 12 seed, eh?
Matt, Southern Miss’ credentials are a problem. Their RPI is inflated given the nuances of how it works. By this morning (Jan. 19) it had dropped to 45, and will likely continue to take a hit as Conference USA isn’t blessed with depth. It has only 4 four teams currently in the Top 100 (Memphis, East Carolina, UTEP). So. Miss likely needs to win the C-USA regular season title outright (and do so without many more losses) to have a realistic shot at an at-large berth. So. Miss’ best win thus far is Western Kentucky.
In my opinion, it is more than just RPI. There are a lot of other factors that go into it such as wins against Top 50, Top 100, Top 150, road wins, and overall strength of schedule. So, a RPI of 35 looks good what is behind those numbers?
Minnesota 7? Huh? Losses to duke, Indiana, Michigan. 12 wins over top 102. # 10. Rpi. Probably a 3-4 seed now.
Jack, thanks for your interest. At the time the bracket was released, the Gophers had lost four straight games. Outside the Big Ten, Minnesota’s top wins are Memphis, Florida State and Richmond – only one of which (Memphis as an auto qualifier) currently projects as an NCAA team. That said, I would expect the Gophers to climb back toward the 4-5 line. As it was, they were No. 25 on the s-curve on Monday – which is the highest 7 seed.
I predict gophs go 6-3 2nd half of big 10 probably a 4,5,or 6 seed in conf. tourn, unless they collapse completely a solid 5 in ncaa. need more consistency off the bench
Your latest brackets have a flaw because it shows that you have included North Carolina in your bracket yet they are not there, because there is one too many teams in your last five in.
Nick,
Thanks for reading. You were correct. I have made the correction and as it worked out, yes, Virginia is now the first team out. Sometimes those things happened working late a night.
Dave
So glad to see you didn’t include UVA or Maryland. How some people think those two teams are in is beyond me. Big win by Charlotte last night.
Who’s your team? NC State or UNC? Just asking because UVA beat them both. Virginia is in the top 4 of the ACC, played Miami closer than any other team on their floor and just spanked GT by 30 today. After the Duke game, and the ACC tourney, they’re in as a 10 seed.
Nope Virginia didn’t make it too many early bad losses. 0-3 vs CAA = no dance.
If Memphis continues to win, even wins out including the conference tournament and ends up 31-3, how high of a seed do you think they will get? I’m from memphis and I’ve watched this team progress since early in the season. I believe they are a top 10 team in the country right now and I’m not just being biased. They play very well as a team and are extremely talented. It’s an all around team effort in which any given night, one man could lead the team but you never know who it will be. Weak schedule but just the way they play makes me think they could go really far this year given a good seed a favorable line up in the tournament.
Depends on what else happens. But much like last year, Memphis seed may disappoint some fans. Conference USA isn’t very good overall and the Tigers have yet to beat a team that will definitely be in the NCAA tournament (So. Miss is best win). Best guess would be a 6-7 seed if your scenario unfolds. Would be very comparable to Murray State last year. The Racers were a 6 seed. This is just how it looks today.
I don’t really think it matters where they get seeded. Yes their best win is southern miss, but not a lot of people watch these guys. They are extremely good. In our first loss vs VCU we didn’t have Geron Johnson due to a suspension. His first game was in our 2nd lost against Minnesota. Since those back to back losses, the chemistry in the tigers back-court is crazy good. In the win against southern miss, the tigers had 27 assists on 33 made field goals. Extremely team oriented ball. Our only other loss was against Louisville and I can honestly say we lost because of the terrible display by the refs. Having 5 tigers foul out in one game is the worst I’ve ever seen in a college basketball game. The tigers were up by 16 and every time there was a foul called the refs would go to the moniter to look at it, which slowed down any momentum memphis was able to gain and allowed Louisville to get back into it. Better seeding would help the tigers but regardless I think they are poised to make a run. 16 and counting. 0 true road losses. I don’t care who you are playing that’s hard. Just ask Kansas who got beat by TCU. (1-12) in the big 12 with THAT win
Good call on this one Dave you nailed it they went 30-4 (only loss at Xavier) and got a 6 seed (I had them as an 8 seed)
Where’s the love for Boise State? They’re 6 and 6 in the second highest rated league in the rpi. They should be ahead of the Kentucky, Virginia, and Arizona State’s of the world. Plus, if a third team makes it from the SEC it will be Tennessee based solely on their non conf strength of schedule. If you think back over the years they reward teams that play tough schedules early in the season. I remember when Colorado beat Kansas st three times one season and got left out with a winning record in conf because they had such a weak non conf schedule. Also I think they will reward teams like Akron, Middle Tenn, LA Tech, and Belmont if they lose in their conference tournaments especially because the bubble is so weak this season…..so it will be a mute point anyhow….Thoughts
Nick, all fair points. I actually like Boise; had them in the bracket for quite a while earlier in the season. And they aren’t far from an at-large spot. The issue right now is that the Broncos are 1-4 vs. the top teams in the MTW (beating UNLV at home). Wyoming’s fall hasn’t helped. BSU has 6 MTW wins but only one against an NCAA team. The good news is that Boise has 3 quality MTW chances left – San Diego St, Colorado St, and UNLV. There is a very small difference among the bubble teams right now. The losses at Utah and Nevada are a factor, but Boise can overcome those down the stretch.
Memphis as a 6 seed ? Seems way too high (even before the X loss tonight). They have only 2 top 50 wins both vs an over inflated RPI 34 Southern Miss team. (Not sure how Southern Miss has RPI of 34 with their profile they have beat no one). Memphis has 0 wins vs teams currently in the field right now as at large teams. Tennessee is a bubble team that is their best win the rest of their wins are a collection of non notable wins.
Like Is said above I got this one a little wrong I had Memphis as an 8 seed I really didn’t think they should have been a 6 seed but the committee disagreed with me on this one. Memphis didn’t really beat anyone of note they had 0 wins vs against at large quality teams.
If Akron wins out but loses in the MAC championship game, do they get an at-large?
Would love to see it, Stewart. Hope it works out that way (if your scenario unfolds). That said, Akron doesn’t play in a vacuum. It’s hard to know what the at-large pool will look like if there are conference tournament upsets. If I had to take a guess – based on what we know today – I would give Akron about a 60-percent chance if they win out and lose in the MAC final – especially if the loss is to Ohio. Would help to beat the Bobcats a second time tonight.
Colorado big overtime win
on the road today. This gets them an 8 9 seed orhigher.How can we count out Kentucky yet? Is the SE conference that weak?
Louisville should be a 2.
I would have liked to see if they had that chance as well but they lost at Buffalo and as unfair as it is that probably ended their at large hopes even though BCS schools rank up 10-12 losses and lose to teams like Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Auburn, ect in their conf.
I’m a Louisville fan, and I’m not really angry about it by any mans, but why is Louisville so squarely on the three line? I know that they lack a signature win, but their only losses are to RPI top 25 teams. Just not seeing it with the Zags ahead as a two, they have OKST and KSU on the resume… and that’s it.
Reminds me of when we were in C-USA and ranked #4 and got a four seed. But anyway, if Louisville wins in the dome Saturday, do they move up to a two? And is a 1 seed realistic?
Ethan, as of tonight, Louisville is No. 10 on the seed line (s-curve). So that’s two spots away from a two-seed. Too your other notes: Louisville has lost to Notre Dame (No. 40 RPI) and Villanova (No. 55). Assuming the Cards don’t lose at DePaul, yes, a win at Syracuse would most likely push the Cards back to the two-line. To get a one-seed, UL may need to win the BE tourney, depending on what else happens. As for Gonzaga, I think ultimately they will end up as a two-seed out West – most likely being passed by another Big Ten team, Kansas, or the Big East champ (depending on who it is).
Minn. got important win over IU. have 3 games left with B10 bottom feeders although Purdue is always a tough place to play. running the table could get them a 4-5 seed in NCAA. if they can keep up the intensity
Georgetown is the East Region host so they can’t play in that region.
You are correct. Good catch. Missed it this week. Thanks for your interest!
Minnesota10? #1 SOS. #1 nonconference Rpi. 4 wins over top 20. That is #1 in the nation non conference Rpi. Oh yeah. 13 top 100 wins. Rpi. #14. Clearly better than 10. It is about the whole season. I think u emphasize recent games far too much. Committee doesn’t.
Jack I love the gophers, but the inconsistency is killing them, and they seem to think the zone D is a new invention, until they solve this problem, and they will face it again against purdue, they should consider them selves lucky to be in at all, a loss at purdue and a poor showing in the b10 tourney could punch their ticket to the NIT
Cincy over Minnesota ? They are not close using any metric. I’m not sure u are putting proper effort into this. Explanation needed
First, thanks for your interest. If you noticed the s-curve you would have noticed that Minnesota was seven spots ahead of Cincinnati. However, because of conference conflicts and bracketing rules, there was no room for Minnesota on its true seed line (9). Same for Cincinnati (Big East). Those two had two switch seed lines. It happens more than you think. That said, while Minnesota will be evaluated on its whole body of work (like everyone else), the seeding process includes many factors – including how a team might be playing. Minnesota could easily climb. Two other quick notes: Minnesota is 3-6 in road games and the Gophers’ only non-conference win against a projected NCAA team is Memphis. While Top 100 wins are quality wins, not all are the same. Little nuances like that are taken into consideration. In reality, often very little separates teams from seeds 7-10. As you referenced RPI, it’s an organizational tool and not necessarily a seeding tool. Middle Tennessee and Belmont were 25-26 on the RPI rankings today (March 2). I doubt either of those teams – if they make it – will be a 7 seeds. Just an example.
I very much appreciate your explanation. It doesn’t begin to justify a ten. You continue to use nonconference as negative for a team #1 in the NATION in nonconference Rpi. I know Rpi is one metric. But they are number 1. And they have 4 top 20 wins. Also if u check the bracket matrix, u r on an island at 10. Rpi would be a 4. If u want to slide to a 6-7. Fine. 10 is just too high in my opinion. Again, I do appreciate your time and work.
Jack
I have Kentucky ahead of Tennessee.
Here is my Kentucky vs Tennessee breakdown
They split season series H2H.
Kentucky is 11-5 and Tenn is 9-7 in the SEC.
Kentucky 20-9 with worst lost vs RPI 84 (Texas A&M).
Tenn just 17-11 with worst lost swept by RPI 128 (Georgia)
Kentucky won at Ole Miss and Tennessee was swept by Ole Miss.
Both teams lost at Arkansas
Both teams RPI is about same Kentucky slightly ahead.
Tenn has the home wins over Florida, Wichita State, Kentucky (Swept by Ole Miss, Swept by Georgia)
Kentucky has home win over Missouri, Tennessee and at Ole Miss (Lost at home vs Texas A&M, Baylor)
Keep in mind that much of Kentucky’s resume was compiled with Nerlens Noel. Now that he is out for the year, the Selection Committee will be evaluating Kentucky based on its current roster, including overall wins and losses. So while previous performances aren’t completely discounted, UK will have to re-establish its NCAA profile.
Kentucky’s best 2 wins came with Noel out Missouri and Florida. Both teams missed the cut when both flamed out in the 1st round of the SEC tournament. If either could have made a run they would have got in like Ole Miss who was in once they made the finals…next year UK will be a power house again and fighting for a #1 seed no more bubble crap.
Just wanted to point out that Texas Southern is ineligible for the post season.
Boise State and San Diego State have identical records in conference and non-conference, yet one is an 8 seed and other is the 5th team out? This is a team that is currently 40th RPI, but they can’t make the field of 64?
Chris, thanks for your interest. Keep in mind, the bracket you’re referring to was posted before Boise State beat Colorado State over the weekend. That victory has moved Boise into the next bracket update. Also, it’s worth mentioning that SDSU has avoided any sub-100 RPI losses. Boise has lost to both Utah and Nevada. Boise’s non-conference SOS ranked No. 220 (today); by comparison, San Diego State’s was 128 (not great, but significantly better). SDSU has also played a slightly tougher schedule (to date) within the conference (37th, vs. 57th). As long as Boise can split its last two games, the Broncos will likely stay in the Field of 68. Think of it this way, too … the difference between the final 8 seed and the last team in is only about 15 spots apart on the seed list (s-curve). And the teams in between often have very similar profiles.
“While upsets are fun, the actual tournament will be better if teams like Akron, Belmont, Bucknell and Middle Tennessee win their league… ”
Exactly. For the conf tournaments if you like a great NCAA tournament you want to root for the best teams in each mid major conf to win their conf tournament (unless of course the team you root for is in that tournament)
How many bad losses does it take to knock out Virgina ? 7 losses vs RPI 125+ teams including dreadful 0-3 vs terrible CAA.
How in the hell do u have Mizzou has a 9 seed and going down . Really? I really think that Mizzou is so much better then let’s say KU. If Mizzou had any luck they would only have 4 losses. Watch out for them in the tourney
Matthew, Missouri hasn’t been falling. Just stable in recent weeks. A 2-7 road record is an issue with regard to seeding; no home games in the tourney. Luck (or not) aside, Missouri is 3-3 vs. Top 50 teams. By comparison, Kansas is 9-3 vs. the Top 50. I’ll agree that Missouri seems to be playing a bit better of late, and they can improve their seeding with a win at Tennessee and a good showing at the SEC tournament.
Oh ya do u relize that every college team has a bad road record
You mean like Louisville (8-3), Gonzaga (10-1), Georgetown (6-3), Indiana (6-2), Pittsburgh (5-3), Oregon (6-3), Saint Louis (6-3), New Mexico (8-3), Michigan State (6-5), VCU (8-2), etc. I’m not being negative toward Missouri. Tigers certainly have potential to be dangerous. Like a lot of teams, they have been inconsistent. But when you’re breaking down profiles, the Tigers road record is something the Committee will potentially take into account when it comes to seeding.
How do you put Missouri behind Illinios and VCU?? Both teams have 7seeds in your bracket and Mizzou beat both team, on neutral courts non the less. You say that the NCAAs aren’t home games, but the Tigers have proven that they can win on nuetral courts against good teams. VCU, Illinios, and kinda Stanford. MUs road record isn’t impressive, no doubt about it, but minus @Ole Miss and @ Florida, both of which the Tigers beat in Columbia btw, the tigers have been competitive in every other road game they lost, and also, those two blow outs were without a complete roster including their teams heart and soal, Laurence Bowers. Bowers is just starting to look like he is close to his old dominant self too. Having had issues throughout my entire life with my MCL, ACL & LCL, they don’t heal over night. Even when you are able to start doing athletic things, you are not all the way back for months, plural. He is finally looking close to himself. Finally, you mentioned that Mizzou, “seems to be playing a bit better of late.” Have you watched Missouri play at all over the last month? They look SIGNIFICANTLY better of late. They are finally starting to gel. Example, at home against South Carolina, Mizzou looked horrid. They were down 13 points with under 10mins to go in the second half. It took a late run for us to squeak out that win. Last week, Mizzou went to play the Gamecocks @ their place, and if you follow Missouri and their, “road . . . issue,” you would know that the Tigers dominated that game from start to finish, against a team that they nearly were upset by at home, and everyone knows that Mizzou is money at home, ie Florida and their unbeaten record in Columbia. You can say what ever you want about Mizzou, but it seems to me that you don’t follow them very closely other than their basic RPI stats. If you watched this team religiously like I do, you would see that their team, that has only one player returning from last years squad who recorded even 1min of play in a game last year, that is finally getting back to 100% healthy and coming together as a cohesive unit that is finally showing signs of team chemistry rather then playing like a collection of selfish transfers trying to make a highlight reel. For real, you watch out, the Tigers are going to be an extremely scary team come tourney time. If I were a fan of another school primed to make the tournament, I wouldn’t want to see Mizzou on my side of the bracket. Not only are they finally getting healthy and playing better ball as a unit, but I think the Tigers Resume should have them placed over multiple teams that you have seeded higher then the Tigers. The best examples that I have are obviously VCU and Illinios, whom we have beaten on nuetral courts, which NCAA games ARE played on. I really hope the Tigers prove people wrong, I just hope that they aren’t screwed by their biased seed and have to play a 1seed in the round of 32, although I do believe that even if that were to happen, the Tigers would still hold their own. Sorry to drag on, I am obviously passionate about MIZZOU!!! M-I-Z
Max, love your passion. Just a quick note. The Committee considers a team’s whole body of work. Head-to-head matchups are a very small component. Right now, we wouldn’t continue to seed Butler ahead of Marquette and Indiana just because the Bulldogs beat those two teams on neutral courts, right? We wouldn’t rank Illinois ahead of Gonzaga at this time just because the Illini won on the ‘Zags court, right?. I have actually seen Missouri play several times. Could the Tigers make a deep run? Sure. But it’s fair to say they have been inconsistent – especially away from home. Win at Tennessee this weekend and add a couple of games at the SEC tourney and I’m sure the Tigers’ final seed will improve both here – and more importantly – when the actual bracket is revealed.
Dave got these right Missouri was behind both VCU and Illinois for seed and Missouri tanked to end the year….5, 7 and 9 seeds for those 3 teams.
Mizzou in my opinion will get a better seed if they continue to play well through the SEC tournament. I see your view on VCU and Illinois but the seeding process is more than if you beat the other teams, but on other factors as well. What is great about the tournament is that Mizzou will have their chance to prove to everyone how good they are no matter where they are seeded in the tournament. The most democratic way in sports!
TRUE A LOT OF 7-10 TEAMS COULD MAKE A RUN, BUT THEY ARE WHAT THEY ARE, NEVER KNOWING WHICH TEAMS WILL SHOW UP. IF I HAD TO PICK A FINAL 4 RIGHT NOW DUKE,MIAMI,INDIANA AND MICHIGAN ST.
Note: under the new rules the national champion is whoever eliminates Notre Dame. That is why it is appropriate to refer to Xavier as the “defending National Champion Musketeers”.
I think UMich can get Gonzaga’s #1 seed if they can win the tourney, but they will have to be consistent and share the ball. I think Indiana game Sunday shouldn’t be counted against them like it has but without watching the game and seeing the box score or highlights, you could make that judgement. But could VCU knock off a UMich, Mich St, or an Indiana team?
Nah, no way Michigan gets a one seed over Gonzaga, Duke or IU…maybe Louisville, Penn State loss really kills their chances.
Dave: I’m curious…you have Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, MSU in order as your two seeds. Yet, Kansas going west and Georgetown Midwest. Why wouldn’t Kansas get the south region as the top two seed and Georgetown east as those are closest sites to them geographically and they have priority?
How in the h… do you pick N.C.State(5th in ACC ) to be in over Virginia (4th in ACC) and when Virginia beat them heads up?
Steve, the Committee looks at a team’s entire profile. Head-to-head wins aren’t really that important – should Wake Forest be in ahead of UVA because of a heads-up win? And conference standings aren’t what they used to be – teams don’t all play each other twice. There’s also Virginia’s seven losses to teams ranked below 100 in the RPI (4 below 150 – including No. 317 ODU) and a non-conference schedule strength ranked No. 304. By comparison, NC lost to just one team below 100 in the RPI (also Wake Forest), and had a non-conference SOS ranked No. 76. Now, Virginia also has a lot of quality wins – which is why they are even in the conversation for an at-large berth. They can still make it, but NC State’s profile overall is better at this point.
I understand all of that, if it was one or the other I could see it, just not both. They played pretty much same conferance teams and won heads up, just saying……..
Gonzaga doesnt have the SOS as UMich. If UMich could win the BIG tourney it will be a one seed. UMich is on Indiana’s side of the BIG bracket and if they faceoff in the semi, Michigan should win that if they get there. UMIch will be atleast the second 2 seed, they’re one of the top 5 teams in the nation. Also VCU has all the right parts for a Final Four appearance again.
Kevin, keep this in mind about Gonzaga. Their non-conference schedule – which they can control – was very aggressive. They played Kansas State, Oklahoma, Davidson, and Clemson on neutral courts. They hosted Illinois, Baylor and West Virginia. And they played true road games at Oklahoma State, Washington State, and Butler – which they lost on a last-second shot. Of those, only WSU was an easy target – no one thought West Virginia would be as down as they were. Basically, Gonzaga was better than every Big 12 team it played. They beat Kansas State by 16 and Oklahoma by 23. The ‘Zags finished 10-1 in road games, when they are everyone’s target in the conference. Michigan lost at Penn State and had a non-conference schedule strength ranked No. 195. No one is arguing that the Big Ten isn’t significantly tougher than the WCC. But Gonzaga met every challenge and took on every challenge. As to your other points, Michigan can certainly make a run to the Final Four. As for VCU, they are tough to prepare for, but rely heavily on forcing turnovers. I’m not sure they can sustain that; we’ll see.
In 4 different brackets, Memphis is a 5,7,9,10 – somebody is really wrong
Hard to team to seed. Haven’t posted a high-level win. Based on last year (with a similar profile) an 7-10 seed is most likely. Believe it or not, there’s not a lot of difference among those seed lines. My best guess would be an 8/9 game. It’ll come down to how strong the Committee views Conference USA.
North Carolina will be higher than an 8 seed. They started the week 28th in the AP poll, and now are in the ACC Championship game. Not to mention the commitee likes teams that finish strong, Carolina has definetely done that. I think if they knock off Miami today they could be as hight as a 5 seed, it they lose I think they land on the 7 line.
No UofK?
They don’t usually put both the SWAC and MEAC in the First 4 together I noticed the last 2 years always 1 of them has been in the regular field.
I think Southern won’t be in the first 4 based on that.
Can you explain why the Lobos aren’t being considered as a #1 seed, since they have a #2 RPI and have dominated the #1 RPI conference (MWC)? I’m not from NM, but I do appreciate great defense. Look at their conference! All the teams in the top 5 were only one loss on their home court, and the 6th team only lost two games. To be so domineering you have to be a great team.
I got all 68 teams right for the 1st time ever!!! Been doing this for 20 years now.
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/messages/chrono/41007829