Bracketology

64-thumbWelcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology. This is where you will find bracket projections and seedings for the 2014 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication (update) the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape stands. The closer we get to Selection Sunday, the bracket reflects a more season ending today approach.

UPDATED: March 16, 2014  |  5:10 p.m. (ET)  |  FINAL PROJECTION

Teams in CAPS represent the AUTOMATIC bid based on tournament results. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Nebraska vs. SMU | East Region
  • Dayton vs. BYU | West Region
  • TEXAS SOUTHERN vs. MOUNT ST. MARY’S | Midwest Region
  • CAL-POLY vs. COASTAL CAROLINA | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

SOUTH – Memphis                             WEST - Anaheim
Orlando   San Diego
1) FLORIDA   1) Arizona
16) ALBANY   16) WEBER STATE
8) George Washington   8) Memphis
9) GONZAGA   9) Pittsburgh
     
Spokane   Spokane
5) NEW MEXICO   5) Ohio State
12) NORTH DAKOTA ST   12) Dayton / BYU
4) Syracuse   4) San Diego State
13) MANHATTAN   13) TULSA
     
San Antonio   Raleigh
6) North Carolina   6) Kentucky
11) PROVIDENCE   11) Xavier
3) Iowa State   3) Duke
14) LA-LAFAYETTE   14) NEW MEXICO STATE
     
Milwaukee   St. Louis
7) VCU   7) Massachusetts
10) Arizona State   10) Iowa
2) Wisconsin   2) Kansas
15) NC-CENTRAL   15) MILWAUKEE
     
EAST – New York   MIDWEST – Indianapolis
Milwaukee   St. Louis
1) Michigan   1) WICHITA STATE
16) CO CAROLINA / CAL-POLY   16) TX SOUTHERN / MT ST MARY’S
8) Oklahoma State   8) Oregon
9) SAINT JOSEPH’S   9) Kansas State
     
San Diego   Orlando
5) UCLA   5) Connecticut
12) HARVARD   12) S.F. AUSTIN
4) Cincinnati   4) MICHIGAN STATE
13) WESTERN MICHIGAN   13) DELAWARE
     
San Antonio   Buffalo
6) Baylor   6) Oklahoma
11) Nebraska / SMU   11) Tennessee
3) Creighton   3) LOUISVILLE
14) MERCER   14) EASTERN KENTUCKY
     
Raleigh   Buffalo
7) Saint Louis   7) Texas
10) Stanford   10) Colorado
2) VIRGINIA   2) Villanova
15) AMERICAN   15) WOFFORD

NOTES on the BRACKET: Florida remains the overall No. 1 seed followed by Arizona, Wichita State, and Michigan.

Last Five teams in (at large): Xavier, Nebraska, Dayton, SMU, BYU

First Five teams out (at large): Florida State, Minnesota, California, Arkansas, Missouri

Next five teams out (at large): Green Bay, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, NC State, Toledo

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State, Oregon, Colorado

Atlantic 10 (6): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, George Washington, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska

ACC (5): Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

Big East (4): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence

SEC (3): Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … TULSA (C-USA), EASTERN KENTUCKY (Ohio Valley), LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (Sun Belt), AMERICAN (Patriot), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), MILWAUKEE (Horizon), WOFFORD (Southern), NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC), MANHATTAN (MAAC), STEPHEN F AUSTIN (Southland), WESTERN MICHIGAN (MAC), MERCER (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), CAL-POLY (Big West), DELAWARE (Colonial), ALBANY (American East), WEBER STATE (Big Sky), NC-CENTRAL (MEAC), COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South), MOUNT ST. MARY’S (NEC), TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

  1. December 15, 2013 at 7:13 pm

    It is interesting to me to see how much the bracket can change in just the first month of the season. I’m interested to see your next update.

    This is what mine would look like as of now: http://bracketbriefer.blogspot.com/2013/12/bracket-brief-for-december-15-2013.html

  2. Henry Muto
    January 27, 2014 at 7:28 pm

    Michigan lost to Charlotte ? I just noticed that. They probably don’t even take a hit for that as far as seeding now that they won these last few games.

    • Dave Ommen
      January 27, 2014 at 8:44 pm

      Yes. By now, that game is largely irrelevant, especially when you consider how the team was adjusting to a new season.

  3. Henry Muto
    February 22, 2014 at 8:47 pm

    Why is Alabama State in your bracket now and Southern out ?

  4. Henry Muto
    February 22, 2014 at 8:49 pm

    I see why now….this is messed up that we don’t know if they are eligible or not

    *Southern is ineligible for postseason play but sanctions may be lifted before postseason play begins.

  5. Henry Muto
    February 23, 2014 at 4:21 pm

    SMU has probably just locked up their bid with a win at UCONN for the sweep

    • Dave Ommen
      February 24, 2014 at 8:23 pm

      Assuming they don’t lose out or drop a game to UCF and at Memphis and then take another bad loss in the opening round of the American tournament, you’re probably right. But with an NC SOS hovering around 300, the Mustangs shouldn’t give the Committee a reason to look at their completely blank non-conference season. That type of non-conference schedule has proven costly if a team ends up near the cutline.

  6. Henry Muto
    February 23, 2014 at 7:44 pm

    On another site someone has Southern Miss as a 9 seed I told him even if they won out and lost in the CUSA finals they would not be an at large and he disagreed saying this…

    “I think many bracketologists who have So. Miss out have it wrong. Conference USA is a two bid conference right now only if another team other than So. Miss wins the conference tournament. As of now, So. Miss is in regardless if they lose out in the conference tournament final. Of course this can change quickly if So. Miss doesn’t win out until the conference tournament final. So a 26 win Southern Miss team won’t make the Big Dance? Conference-USA is a two bid conference if So. Miss loses the champ final”

    I told him a team with only 1 top 50 win (North Dakota State) and 3 sub 100 losses and 0 wins vs at large/even bubble teams means no bid in my opinion even with 26 wins.

  7. Henry Muto
    February 23, 2014 at 7:58 pm

    Harvard takes back their spot in the bracket with Yale getting smoked at Columbia. With Yale having to go to Princeton and Penn next weekend this could be the begging of the end for them even if they sweep Harvard they may not even get to a tie.

  8. Henry Muto
    February 28, 2014 at 9:04 pm

    Oregon with the gift of suspensions and barely won I still don’t think they are worthy based on 1 real top 50 win and 1 gift top 50 win they barely won.

  9. Henry Muto
    March 1, 2014 at 2:07 pm

    Florida Gulf Coast is going to be the #1 seed why do you have Mercer in the bracket over them ? You usually go by the team who holds the tie breaker in conf as the team to get in.

    • Dave Ommen
      March 1, 2014 at 6:55 pm

      Because at the time of the update Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast split their head-to-head meetings in the regular season and Mercer has the better RPI, which is the primary tiebreaker at this point in determining the AQ spot in the bracket.

  10. Henry Muto
    March 1, 2014 at 6:29 pm

    I think Green Bay should be an at large team if they lose in the Horizon championship game. The bubble is weak this year and this team beat Virginia who just won the ACC regular season championship and they barely lost to Wisconsin by 3. Also 1 of their 2 conf losses was without 1 of their 2 star players when Alec Brown was out so if the big boys get a break for guys being out in losses that should count for the little guys too.

  11. Henry Muto
    March 8, 2014 at 9:17 pm

    Well there goes Belmont losing it is really sad to see the best team in these smaller conferences play that whole season for nothing.

    • Dave Ommen
      March 9, 2014 at 7:54 am

      At least they receive an NIT bid now. If you want to pass blame, that goes to the conference. Conference tourneys are not required. Leagues have tournaments to generate revenue and have championship games on TV. Sometimes, this is the fall-out from that. If conference want their best representative, they should designate their regular season champion as the one who receives the automatic bid. That said, it’s unfortunate that sometimes a smaller league’s best team isn’t represented.

      • Henry Muto
        March 9, 2014 at 5:58 pm

        Well this now makes Green Bay, Belmont, Florida Gulf Coast and High Point as #1 seeds that have lost. Green Bay is the most disappointing as they could have got to the sweet 16 with the right bracket.

  12. Henry Muto
    March 9, 2014 at 5:57 pm

    Remember this Ohio State win over Michigan State was a full strength Michigan State team so here is hoping the committee gives full credit for this win as in 18-1 Michigan State record type win and not credit as if Michigan State was 23-8 as they stand now. Every other Big 10 team got to play MSU when they were not full strength.

    • Ben
      March 13, 2014 at 8:40 am

      Illinois played MSU at full strength and beat them at the Breslin Center.

  13. Henry Muto
    March 9, 2014 at 7:33 pm

    Disappointing weekend. We have now lost 6 #1 seeds.

    Green Bay, Belmont, Florida Gulf Coast, High Point, Vermont and Davidson.

  14. Wayne
    March 10, 2014 at 9:22 am

    It would have been nice to see how those teams performed in the main tourney, but you have to win to get in for these smaller conferences. I don’t see any of those teams making it now.

  15. Henry Muto
    March 13, 2014 at 9:59 pm

    Amazingly all 4 of the SWAC teams left are eligible for the NCAA tournament. Southern fell to 6-12 Prairie View and Pine Bluff fell as well so instead of the Semi-finals possible being for the NCAA bid the finals will be.

  16. Dan
    March 15, 2014 at 5:45 pm

    hmm. seems like people are afraid to move up teams like sf Austin and Toledo to the 8-9 line. I have Harvard, Toledo, and sf Austin on the 8-9 line. also have north dak st on the 10 line.

  17. Henry Muto
    March 15, 2014 at 9:17 pm

    This is probably the first Selection Sunday we will have no potential bid stealer at all playing to make things easier on the committee. All 8 teams playing on Sunday are locks not counting the Sun Belt.

  18. March 16, 2014 at 12:48 am

    Going to be hard to pick the final 4-6 teams this year. The first 62 are always easy, but the this year is especially difficult because there is not a single bid stealer. I could easily see SMU, BYU, Dayton, Colorado, Xavier, Pitt, and Tenn left out. Green Bay, LA Tech, and even Clemson could get in. Gonna be hard to pick more than 66 right.

    On another note….Weber St. will not be a 16 seed. They will be Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary, Albany, Cal Poly, Coastal, and American.

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