| Atlantic 10 |
| Locks: Temple | Should Be In: St. Louis | Bubble: Dayton, St. Joe’s, Xavier |
- Dayton (20-12 | 9-7) | RPI: 79 | SOS: 67 | – The Flyers have eight Top 100 RPI wins, including victories over Temple, Alabama, and Xavier. The Flyers have also beaten Ole Miss and Minnesota. But troubling losses – particularly defeats to sub-200 RPI teams Miami-OH and Rhode Island really hurt UD’s profile. A loss to Xavier in the A10 quarterfinals and a sinking RPI will probably push the Flyers into the NIT.
- St. Joe’s (20-13 | 9-7) | RPI: 70 | SOS: 54 | – St. Joe’s stayed in the bracket for a while thanks to good non-conference wins over Creighton and Drexel. They also beat Temple. But a loss to St. Bonaventure in the A10 quarterfinals – their second defeat to the Bonnies in two weeks – probably drops SJU below the cutline.
- Xavier (29-11 | 10-6) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 45 | – Non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Cincinnati continue to help the Muskies. And a come-from-behind win against rival Dayton in the A10 quarterfinals keeps XU in the picture. Xavier is 8-10 vs. the Top 100 which actually looks pretty good these days compared to other bubble teams. A victory over St. Louis in the A10 semis likely seals it for the Musketeers.
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| ACC |
| Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State | Should Be In: Virginia | Bubble: Miami-FL, NC State, Virginia |
- Miami-FL (19-12 | 9-7) | RPI: 59 | SOS: 43 | – Miami has a huge win at Duke and a victory over Florida State at home. But they are just 3-11 vs. Top 100 teams. They have also lost Durand Scott to indefinte suspension. That could work against the Canes. So will a quarterfinal loss to Florida State. Miami isn’t dead-in-the-water, but they will most likely need help. On a side note, the Canes were swept by NC State.
- NC State (22-11 | 9-7) | RPI: 49 | SOS: 32 | – The Wolfpack have a season sweep of Miami and a neutral court win over Texas. But a 1-7 mark vs. the Top 50 remains troubling – although Virginia and Miami are in the 50-60 range. NC state is 6-9 vs. the Top 100. The Wolfpack are right on the cutline at the moment. If they find a way to beat North Carolina in the ACC semis that would probably be enough. If the Wolfpack fall short, it may very well depend on how those final few spots shake out.
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| BIG EAST |
| Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati | Should Be In: Connecticut | Bubble: Seton Hall, South Florida, West Virginia |
- Seton Hall (20-12 | 8-10) | RPI: 62 | SOS: 44 | – The Pirates ended their season with a loss to Louisville in the second round of the Big East tournament Wednesday night. That’s 3 losses in 4 games – including dropped games to Rutgers and DePaul. Victories over VCU, St. Joe’s and Dayton will help, along with wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, and West Virginia. SHU finished 7-9 vs. the Top 100. That may keep SHU as one of the 37 best at-large teams, but these are anxious moments.
- South Florida (19-12 | 12-6) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 24 | – USF completed its season with an overtime loss to Notre Dame in the Big East quarters. Despite 12 regular-season Big East wins, only two were against Top 50 opponents (Louisville, Cincy). Outside the BE, the Bulls managed to beat Cleveland State, that’s about it. USF ended 5-8 on the road and just 6-10 vs. the top 100. They lost to Penn State and Auburn.
- West Virginia (19-13 | 9-9) | RPI: 51 | SOS: 14 | – The Mountaineers fell in overtime Wednesday to Connecticut and the wait continues. With victories over Kansas State and Miami-Fla outside the conference, the Mountaineers likely still have an inside track to a bid. They finised 9-11 vs. Top 100 teams and beat Georgetown, Cincinnati and South Florida in the Big East. A top 20 SOS will help. WVU had five losses to Top 35 RPI teams by a total of 11 points.
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| BIG 10 |
| Locks: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Northwestern |
- Northwestern (18-13 | 8-10) | RPI: 61 | SOS: 18 | – The Wildcats ended their season with a 1-10 mark vs. Top 50 teams and a 5-12 mark vs. Top 100 teams. NW has a marquee win over Michigan State and a bubble win over Seton Hall. The loss to Minnesota in the opening round of the Big Ten tourney will be hard to overlook, however. Close losses help Northwestern, but it’s looking less likely they will be enough to warrant an NCAA at-large bid.
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| BIG 12 |
| Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, Kansas State, Iowa State | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Texas |
- Texas (20-13 | 9-9) | RPI: 48 | SOS: 19 | – The Longhorns beat Iowa State for a second time to give them 4 wins against Top 50 opponents. A strong SOS is helping, but like many other bubble teams, the Horns have a troubling mark against the Top 100 (4-11). Texas did not beat any of the Big 12′s best teams. The Longhorns’ best out-of-conference wins are UT-Arlington and UCLA. Tense times in Austin.
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| CONFERENCE USA |
| Locks: Memphis | Should Be In: Southern Mississippi | Bubble: Central Florida, Marshall |
- Central Florida (20-10 |10-6) | RPI: 55 | SOS: 76 | – We’ll leave the Knights on the at-large board, but they have certainly fallen off the pace and are probably done. They were blown out by Memphis in the C-USA tourney. A 3-7 mark vs. Top 100 teams isn’t helping.
- Marshall (19-9 |10-6) | RPI: 61 | SOS: 89 | – The Herd’s win at Cincinnati keeps looking better, and Marshall also handily beat fellow bubble team Iona. That said, UM may still need to beat Memphis and win the league’s auto bid. Beating Southern Miss in the semis improved Marshall to 4-4 vs. the Top 50. A Top 10 non-conference schedule will also be noticed.
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| MISSOURI VALLEY |
| Locks: Wichita State, Creighton | Should Be In: None | Bubble: None |
- Creighton won the automatic bid and ensured that the MVC will be a two-bid league.
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| MOUNTAIN WEST |
| Locks: UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Colorado State |
- Colorado State (19-11 | 8-6) | RPI: 27 | SOS: 5 | – The Rams have beaten UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico at home, and their power numbers are very strong, if not slightly inflated. The concerns are a 3-9 road record – CSU’s best road win is UTEP (No. 158) – and nothing out of conference other than a win over Montana. Losing to SDSU in the semifinals leaves the door open for Colorado State to be squeezed.
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| PAC 12 |
| Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington |
- Arizona (22-10 | 12-6) | RPI: 73 | SOS: 115 | – The Wildcats ended their regular season with a horrible loss at Arizona State but managed to reach the Pac-12 title game against Colorado. With a weak 1-3 mark vs. Top 50 teams, a runner-up finish may not be enough. Arizona’s best non-conference win is New Mexico State.
- California (24-9 | 13-5) | RPI: 36 | SOS: 83 | – With nine (9) Top 100 wins, Cal continues to have the best at-large resume of the Pac-12 group. At the same time, the Bears are 0-3 vs the Top 50 and have not beaten a team that would be at at-large team in the NCAA as of this update.
- Colorado (22-8 | 13-5) | RPI: 71 | SOS: 81 | – The Buffaloes’ profile is improving among the Pac-12 contenders. If that means much. Colorado has beaten Cal twice (after winning late Friday in the Paac-12 tourney), Oregon twice, and Washington once. Like everyone else here, however, there’s nothing outside the league. So CU’s best bet is to win the automatic bid.
- Oregon (22-8 | 13-5) | RPI: 64 | SOS: 94 | – A loss to Colorado in the Pac-12 quarters probably ended the Ducks’ at-large hopes. Oregon finished 0-4 vs. Top 50 teams and 5-8 vs. the Top 100.
- Washington (21-10 | 14-4) | RPI: 54 | SOS: 83 | – The Huskies will present an interest test case for the committee. They won the outright Pac-12 title. Historically, leaving out the Huskies would be rare, given the league’s stature as a BCS conference. But this is a historically bad year for the Pac-12, and Washington is 0-4 vs. Top 50 teams and 4-8 vs. the Top 100. Neither of those inspire confidence as an at-large selection.
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| SEC |
| Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt | Should Be In: Alabama | Bubble: Mississippi State, Mississippi, Tennessee |
- Mississippi State (21-11 | 8-8) | RPI: 74 | SOS: 71 | – The Bulldogs ended their season with a surprising loss to Georgia in the SEC’s first round. But with 7 Top 100 wins (7-9), and a non-conference win over West Virginia, MSU might be able to survive a very bubbly profile. Still, MSU (2-4 vs. Top 50 teams) is certainly in danger of being squeezed.
- Mississippi (21-10 | 8-8) | RPI: 65 | SOS: 66 | – The Rebels are alive in the SEC tourney and have moved onto the bubble after a win over Tennessee on Friday. A 1-6 mark vs. Top 50 teams is an issue, and a 6-11 mark vs. the Top 100 looks like a half-dozen other teams. A win over Miami-Fla could help some, but Ole Miss probably has to upset Vandy to have a realistic at-large chance.
- Tennessee (17-14 | 10-6) | RPI: 84 | SOS: 31 | – How the Committee evaluates the arrival of Jarnell Stokes in early January will be a major factor for the Vols. That said, Friday’s loss to Ole Miss drops UT’s RPI into very dangerous territory. There’s also 14 losses overall. The Vols beat Florida twice, and topped Vandy and Connecticut. But a 3-11 mark away from home is concerning.
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| WEST COAST |
| Locks: St. Mary’s, Gonzaga | Should Be In: None | Bubble: BYU |
- BYU (23-8 | 12-4) | RPI: 43 | SOS: 99 | – BYU failed in its attempt to beat Gonzaga a second time and finished 1-4 vs the Zags and St. Mary’s. If the Cougars miss the NCAAs that will be one reason why. Their best non-conference victories are Nevada and Oregon. Good wins, but perhaps not enough to make an NCAA bid hold up. BYU is a team that could easily be squeezed if bids get tight. Their resume is complete. It will be a long wait until Selection Sunday.
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| BEST OF THE REST |
| Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Drexel, Iona, Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee State, Oral Roberts |
- Drexel (27-6 | 16-2) | RPI: 66 | SOS: 213 | – The Dragons may prove to be the ultimate “eye test” team for this year’s Selection Committee. Drexel had won 19 straight games before losing in the CAA championship to VCU. They were also the outright regular-season champions of the Colonial. Strictly by the numbers, Drexel finished 1-2 vs. Top 50 teams and just 4-3 against the Top 100. While they lost to St. Joseph’s and Virginia, Drexel beat Cleveland State by 20 on the road. All the Dragons can do now is wait and hope a few other things fall their way.
- Iona (25-7 | 15-3) | RPI: 41 | SOS: 144 | – The Gaels ended their season by losing to Fairfield in the MAAC semifinals. Now, it’s a long wait until Selection Sunday. Iona has to hope that wins over Nevada and St. Joseph’s hold up and that a few things go their way. The Gaels finished 1-1 vs. the Top 50 and 5-3 vs. the Top 100. Losses to sub-200 teams Siena and Hofstra may ultimately doom Iona to the NIT.
- Long Beach State (21-8 | 15-1) | RPI: 37 | SOS: 130 | – The 49ers nearly completed a perfect Big West season. And while early wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier help, they aren’t as strong as once thought. LBSU played the No. 1 non-conference schedule but went 0-6 vs. Top 50 teams and just 2-7 vs. the Top 100. Several close losses will help, but how much?
- Middle Tennesse State (24-6 | 14-2) | RPI: 57 | SOS: 181 | – The Blue Raiders’ chances are very slim after losing in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt tournament. Their best wins are Ole Miss, Akron and Belmont. But they ended the season with back-to-back losses to Western Kentucky and Arkansas State (both sub-200 teams). MTSU ended 0-1 vs. Top 50 teams.
- Oral Roberts (27-6 | 17-1) | RPI: 50 | SOS: 191 | – ORU beat Xavier, Missouri State, and Akron (BracketBusters) in non-conference play, although XU was without several players. But a loss to Western Illinois in the league tournament semis puts a damper on the Eagles’ at-large hopes. They finished 0-2 vs. Top 50 teams and just 3-3 against the Top 100. ORU has to hope a dominate season in the Summit is enough.
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Not sure Cleveland State can get an at large but after a huge road win and an 8-1 road record including a win at Vanderbilt and a win at Kent State they should be on the fringe at least. What will hold them back is none of the 3 losses were to NCAA teams. They lost to Hofstra when they played 3 games in 3 days (this was the 2nd of those games). They lost at South Florida and they lost at home to YSU. Last year they went 14-4 in conf and didn’t sniff an at large so not sure this year will be any difference except this year they do have that impressive Vanderbilt win on the road but Vanderbilt was missing one of the better players.
This is my favorite time of the year thank god Jan is over and we are in bubble land now!
These next 4 weeks leading up to Championship is always fun. I can’t wait for Championship week that is 1 of the best weeks of the year leading up to Selection Sunday but it goes too fast sometimes yet I can’t wait for it to get here.
Thanks for doing all the work you do!
Bracket Busters screwed Cleveland State this year big time. 11 AM what in the heck ? I mean come on they were in the top 5 RPI for home teams and get the worst time slot. Also the draw is terrible in terms of they are playing preseason CAA favorite in Drexel who has a terrible RPI like 80 and they have won 16 out of their last 17 games so this is a double whammy for CSU if they win they won’t move up much in RPI since they are at home playing a team with 30+ RPI lower while if they lose it will end what little hopes they have at an at large (because you know if your a mid major you need to go 27-5 just to have a chance!)
I don’t see any chance for CSU getting at large bid short of running the regular season table. It isn’t right and it isn’t fair but that is life in the eyes of the committee. CSU really needed a game against Wichita State, Long Beach State or Nevada not sure how we got so screwed.
Huge choke job by Xavier up 11 with 6 mins left a complete meltdown at the end of the game. How will the committee look at the losses when X was without their starters after the fight ? I think no one knows this answer.
According to Joe Lunardi Cleveland State can not get an at large bid even if they win out and go to the conf finals finishing at 28-5. That be pretty sick if they were left out if that happened.
John T (Eagan, MN)
Cleveland State wins out but loses conference championship – can they get an at-large?
Joe Lunardi (4:41 PM)
Probably not…
Cleveland State has 11 road wins…no othe team in the nation has that many. Shouldn’t that count for something ? I don’t understand how CSU wins out and then loses the finals and finishes 27-5 vs Div 1 teams and has a win at Vanderbilt and a win vs Akron and would possibly be 5-1 vs top 100 and they would take teams from the BSC schools that are in 6th,7th and 8th place.
If CSU wins finishes the season as you suggest, I think the Vikings will be in the mix for an at-large berth. But it’s far from a lock. It depends on what else happens in conference tournaments. Here’s part of the concern. If you remove CSU’s wins against teams ranked 170 or lower in the RPI (bottom half of D-1), the Vikings’ record is a somewhat pedestrian 9-4. It’s not Cleveland State’s fault that Butler and Detroit, in particular, have not lived up to expectations and have become RPI drains in Horizon League play. But it’s part of the equation. Teams can be helped or hindered by league play – just look at the Pac-12. It may very well come down to CSU’s BracketBusters game with Drexel. The Vikings probably have to win that game. As a Butler grad, I embrace the so-called mid-majors. But we’ve also seen teams get squeezed on Selection Sunday.
I agree CSU must beat Drexel in the bracket buster game just to have any chance. If they lose they are dead in the water for at large. I don’t think they will go unbeaten the rest of the way though their schedule is pretty tough. I don’t care what the RPI says they have tough games against Valpo, Butler, Wright State, Detroit, Drexel and stil have to go to Green Bay and Milwaukee. If they win every one of those games they deserve an at large for sure. I don’t think people realize just how tough those teams are. Detroit has been playing great lately. Milwaukee is a good team. Green Bay is 9-2 at home I believe. CSU will probably lose at least 1 of those road games against the Wisconsin teams. All that really matters is Thursday night for now though they MUST win at home vs Valpo to take a 2 game lead in the Horizon conf and split their season series with Valpo because having the #1 seed means everything in the Horizon league as CSU has never hosted the tournament before since they went to the new rule of #1 seed hosts and gets a double bye and the might have to do it without 1 of their best players in D-Brown who missed the last game with a groin injury.
How is Creighton ranked so high anyway ? Yes they beat San Diego State but after that what ? Northwestern next best win ?
The double standard…it is ok for Florida State to lose to 8-16 BC and at home to Princeton but a mid major can’t lose such games.
Arkansas 0-7 on the road with an RPI around 60 (or lower after losing to Georgia)
Cleveland State 11-2 on the road (most road wins in the nation coming into this week)
Yet Arkansas is on the at large bubble and CSU is not…this is the kinda stuff that is annoying as a fan of mid majors
0-7 on the road and they are in at large field in some brackets truly amazing to me.
Lock it up for Witchita State they are in
The bubble is weak enough, we may have to consider adding South Florida (14-10). The Bulls are 8-4 in the BE after a win over Providence.
14-10 South Florida ? RPI of 80 entering the week. 1-6 vs top 50 with the 1 win a home game vs sinking ship Seton Hall. Best non conf win Cleveland State.
That 8-4 is a weak 8-4 their 8 wins come against teams bottom half of the league all 8 of them.
Have always been a fan of Pitt, but do not understand how they can be picked over South Florida…. weak sked and all, but they appear to be closing fast with a great BE record.
When this was written, Pitt was riding a winning streak with Tray Woodall back. That is no longer the case, and it will be reflected when Bubble Banter is updated again later this week.
So Bama “only” has a 9-8 record Vs Top 100
But, “on the plus side” for Mississippi State is their 7-7 record Vs the top 100???????
Thanks for reading so thoroughly. Remember, however, that Alabama has to be evaluated on its current team. Tony Mitchell isn’t returning; he’s been suspended for the remainder of the season. The point being made is that yes, a 9-8 record vs. the Top 100 is good, but only two of those wins are against teams currently projected to make the NCAA filed (Wichita State, Purdue). Those wins came in November at the Puerto Rico tipoff. Mississippi State’s 7 Top 100 wins include victories over 4 teams that on the s-curve would be in as of Friday, Feb. 24. Sometimes, numbers by themselves can be a bit deceiving. It wasn’t meant to be a straight comparison.
I just checked 1 guys bracket and he had Illinois in the field…………..WOW
I guess South Florida is going to make it wow what a win at Louisville with 12 conf wins I can’t see them left out now depsite 11 total losses
UCONN’s last 3 wins are against Pitt, Nova and DePaul and they are getting in…sad really
Amazing that Washington is going to get in they have a mid major profile and by the numbers really not even as good as some of them.
Washington has only 1 top 150 RPI road win (at #68 Arizona by 2 points)
Only has 1 RPI top 65 win (Home vs Oregon a non tourney team)
Only 3 RPI top 100 wins (Oregon and Arizona x 2)
Their only saving grace only 1 RPI 100+ loss (at UCLA)
Many mid majors would not get in the dance with this profile but Washington will
Henry, Washington may or may not get in, but it won’t be because they are in the Pac-12. All of your points are well made. But I don’t believe the Committee values majors over mid-majors at all. Reality is, there are distinct advantages (and some disadvantages) of playing in a so-called power conference. That’s not the Committee’s issue to deal with. BCS teams have more opportunities for “RPI” wins, that’s for sure (in most years). That’s why you have to work with the data you have. Otherwise it becomes speculation. Now, if Washington wins an outright Pac-12 title, that could work in their favor. Some Committee members value that more than others – and everything is done by vote so no one person or persons says they are “in.”
Entire Pac 10 stinks! 1-29 or something like that vs RPI top 50 non conf I heard. If that is true how any get in is beyond me.
So brutal I wanted Iona and Middle Tenn in the dance I always want the best mid majors there to have a better chance to pull an upset. These tournaments are maddening. I like how some give the #1 seed a chance to host the touranment instead of letting an entire season go to waste.
Unreal another #1 seed goes down in Oral Roberts only 5 losses all year until the post season. These #1 seeds are all falling before their conf title games as well. This make 3 now Iona, Middle Tennessee and now Oral Roberts.
A crying shame we won’t get to see these teams in the dance.
Was really looking forward to Oral Roberts vs South Dakota State now we don’t get to see that.
I think these mid majors need to look at what the Horizon and other confs do give the #1 seed a bye to the semis and give them home court they earned it.
Joe Lunardi has Washington still in the field. He is basing this off of history that he has never found a team that has won a BCS regular season title and they have never missed the big dance.
I say screw that crap you have to look at the resume and theirs sucks bad and should be out.
1 top RPI 75 win and 0 wins vs top 100 RPI out of conf.
Washington’s resume just got worse as Colorado defeats Oregon 63-62 which means Washington will end up with 0 top 50 RPI wins.
Dude, you need to relax. Mid-majors are mid-majors for a reason. It would be wise to accept this already.