Bubble Banter

Welcome to Bubble Banter.

Bubble Banter highlights the teams we believe are on the NCAA Bubble, teams that have locked up spot in the Field of 68, and teams that Should Be In but are not “locks” at the time of the update. RPI and SOS data is credited to InsideRPI at ESPN.

RPI data is for games played through Friday, March 15.

UPDATED: Saturday, March 16 | 9:00 a.m.

Total Spots (68): Number of teams in the Field.

Automatic Bids (31): Liberty (Big South), Harvard (Ivy), Creighton (MVC), Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), Belmont (OVC), Davidson (Southern), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), James Madison (Colonial), Gonzaga (West Coast), Iona (MAAC), Valparaiso (Horizon), LIU-Brooklyn (NEC), South Dakota State (Summit), Bucknell (Patriot) …

• Projected Locks (34): Teams who project to have secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
• Should Be In (3): These teams are in solid position to receive an at-large bid.
• Bubble: (21): Teams remaining who are projected to be under consideration for at-large selection.
• Spots Available (10): Estimated number of openings after Automatic Bids, Locks, and Should Be Ins are considered.
• RPI and SOS: RPI and SOS data are updated through games completed on Friday, March 16.

Atlantic 10
Locks: Butler, Saint Louis, VCU | Should Be In: None | Bubble: La Salle, Temple, Massachusetts
La Salle (21-9 | 11-5) | RPI: 40 | SOS: 79 | – The Explorers must sit and wait after losing to Butler in the A10 quarterfinals. Perhaps the biggest plus on their resume is a victory at VCU. The concerns are just three Top 50 wins (and 6 Top 100). Will the road win at VCU and home wins over Butler and Villanova be enough, along with 11 conference wins? Hard to say. Massachusetts (21-10 | 9-7) | RPI: 53 | SOS: 85 | – Hope remains for the Minutemen after knocking off Temple Friday night. And while an 8-8 mark against Top 100 teams looks good on the surface, they have just two against the Top 50 (including Temple). That could be a problem. Outside the league, UMass beat Ohio, Providence, and Harvard, but those aren’t going to move the needle. Beating VCU is the next step. Temple (23-9 | 11-5) | RPI: 41 | SOS: 58 | – It may not matter that Temple lost to UMass on Friday. The Owls resume was probably good enough already. They are 10-6 against the Top 100 and have non-conference wins over Syracuse and Villanova to go along with victories over VCU, and Saint Louis. The Owls are probably safe, but we can’t quite move them off the bubble.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Miami-FL, NC State, North Carolina | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Maryland (22-11 | 8-10) | RPI: 62 | SOS: 111 | – Well, the Terrapins beat Duke for a second time and face off against North Carolina in the ACC semifinals. Do they have another big game? Funny thing is, the Terps have not faired well against teams not named Duke. They have beaten the Blue Devils twice and NC State once. That’s pretty much their resume. When you factor in a bad NC SOS and poor road record, it may very well take an ACC title to make it. But that’s only two wins away. Virginia (21-11 | 11-7) | RPI: 74 | SOS: 127 | – The Cavaliers ended an up-and-down season with a serious thud Friday afternoon in the ACC quarterfinals against NC State. They went 4-2 against Top 50 completion and 8-3 vs. the Top 100. That’s the good. The bad includes seven losses to teams ranked 100 or lower in the RPI and a non-conference schedule ranked No. 294. When put together, it’s a resume that spells trouble. The Cavaliers played 15 games against teams ranked 150 or lower in the RPI (losing 4 of them). If they are left at home on Selection Sunday, that will be a major reason why.
BIG EAST
Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame | Should Be In: Cincinnati | Bubble: Villanova
Villanova (19-13 | 10-8) | RPI: 51 | SOS: 16 | – Taking care of St. John’s was probably enough for the Wildcats. Victories over Georgetown, Syracuse, Louisville and Marquette should cover their profile issues – such as an average (or worse) non-conference season and a couple of questionable losses. Few other bubble teams can boast such high-end wins.
BIG 10
Locks: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois | Should Be In: Minnesota | Bubble: Iowa
Iowa (21-12 | 9-9) | RPI: 78 | SOS: 124 | – The Hawkeyes put together a game effort against Michigan State on Friday before a furious Spartan rally likely ended their NCAA hopes. Yes, Iowa has four Top 50 wins, but all were at home. Plus, they are 6-10 vs. Top 100 teams. Are the Hawkeyes playing well enough for consideration? Yes. Does their resume – which includes a very poor non-conference SOS number – suggest an at-large bid? Most likely not. Given the carnage around the bubble, could the Committee vote on the “eye test?”
BIG 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Baylor (17-14 | 9-9) | RPI: 68 | SOS: 19 | – The Bears’ suffered another heartbreaking loss, this time in the B12 quarterfinals against Oklahoma State. And it’s one that will very likely send them to the NIT. The Bears simply lost too many games. They finished 3-11 vs. Top 50 teams (5-11 vs. the Top 100). Iowa State (22-11 | 11-7) | RPI: 45 | SOS: 41 | – Beating Oklahoma didn’t move the Cyclones off the bubble, but it did keep them on the right side of the cutline. Which means Friday’s loss to Kansas probably doesn’t hurt the Cyclones chances. Of course, we target Saint Mary’s for losing three times to Gonzaga, but that’s a topic for another article. With so many bubble teams losing, it’ll probably work out. But they won’t rest easy until their name is called on Sunday. Oklahoma (20-11 | 11-7) | RPI: 42 | SOS: 17 | – The Sooners have made their bubble life a bit more interesting and not in a good way. Odds are they will stay (or sneak) in the Field of 68, but it’s no longer a guarantee. With the loss to Iowa State, the Sooners finished 3-7 vs. Top 50 teams and all of those wins were at home. A victory over Ohio was their top non-conference victory. It may come down to this: is beating Kansas and having a strong SOS good enough?
CONFERENCE USA
Locks: Memphis | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Southern Miss
Southern Miss (23-8 | 12-4) | RPI: 32 | SOS: 86 | – Other than some decent computer numbers Southern Miss doesn’t have much too offer. And losing to Memphis for a third time doesn’t help. But their in the C-USA final. So one win is all it takes.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Locks: Creighton | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Wichita State
Wichita State (26-8 | 12-6) | RPI: 38 | SOS: 100 | – While the Shockers are not a lock, they should be in pretty good shape at this point. They reached the MVC title game and split the regular season with Creighton. They also won at VCU and Air Force and beat Iowa on a neutral court outside league play. With eight Top 100 wins, the odds are in their favor.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Locks: New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Boise State
Boise State (19-10 | 9-7) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 66 | – It’s going to a long way for the Broncos who lost their quarterfinal matchup with San Diego State. They have 4 Top 50 wins – perhaps the most important a victory at Creighton. Boise lost both matchups with New Mexico and beat UNLV, Colorado State, and SDSU at home. The negatives are losses to Utah and Nevada and a No. 200-plus non-conference schedule. A First Four appearance is certainly possible.
PAC 12
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Oregon | Should Be In: Colorado | Bubble: California
California (20-11 | 12-6) | RPI: 54 | SOS: 39 | – Losing at Utah to open the Pac-12 tourney wasn’t ideal for the Bears. While five Top 50 wins look good, they are a somewhat light 6-10 vs. the Top 100. Outside the conference, Cal’s only Top 100 win was at Denver. Are road wins at Oregon and Arizona enough? Probably, given the rest of the bubble. But the Bears are not as comfortable as they were.
SEC
Locks: Florida, Missouri | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee
Tennessee (20-12 | 11-7) | RPI: 57 | SOS: 47 | – The Volunteer have garnered a lot of debate. And that will only intensify with Friday’s SEC quarterfinal loss to Alabama. Here’s the good: three top 50 and nine Top 100 wins that included Kentucky, Florida, and Missouri. They also have solid non-conference victories over Wichita State, Massachusetts and perhaps Xavier. The concerns are two losses to Georgia, an otherwise uninspiring SEC overall, and the fact that all but one of the aforementioned victories came at home. Alabama (20-11 | 12-6) | RPI: 60 | SOS: 92 | – The Crimson Tide picked up a must-win against Tennessee on Friday afternoon. That probably won’t be enough by itself, as ‘Bama only had two Top 50 wins (barely) prior to beating the Volunteers (Villanova and Kentucky). Next up is Florida. Win that one and the Tide will get a more serious look. Four sub-100 losses remain an issue. Kentucky (21-11 | 12-6) | RPI: 56 | SOS: 73 | – Dropping a lop-sided game to Vanderbilt to open the SEC tournament isn’t the sort of statement the Wildcats wanted or needed to make. It’s hard to know if UK’s resume will hold up. They only have three Top 50 wins and one of those (Ole Miss) was with Nerlens Noel. If the Committee was using the SEC tournament to help separate teams, it may not end well for the Wildcats. Mississippi (24-8 | 12-6) | RPI: 50 | SOS: 143 | – A late rally – with Missouri’s help – keeps the Rebels alive. It gives them eight Top 100 wins. At the same time, their only Top 50 wins are against Missouri (twice). Is that and a sweep of Tennessee enough to push or keep Ole Miss in the Field? They have an ugly non-conference SOS of 260-plus. We also can’t forget two very bad, and recent, losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State. Here’s another interesting little note: Ole Miss lost to Middle Tennessee. Could the Selection Committee takes MTSU instead?
WEST COAST
Locks: Gonzaga | Should Be In: None | Bubble: St. Mary’s
Saint Mary’s (26-6 | 14-2) | RPI: 33 | SOS: 102 | – Let’s just say its’ going to be a long, agonizing wait until the NCAA Selection Show. The Gaels lost for a third time to Gonzaga -which basically leaves SMC with one win against an NCAA team – Creighton at home. Other than that, the Gaels’ only non-conference wins are Utah State and Harvard. Within the WCC, the Gaels swept BYU. Since this will be a topic of discussion for Middle Tennessee State, it’s worth noting 17 of SMC’s wins came against teams ranked 150 or lower in the RPI.
BEST OF THE REST
Locks: Belmont | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Middle Tennessee, Akron
Akron (24-6 | 14-2) | RPI: 49 | SOS: 138 | – The Zips have reached the MAC title game, so there’s still hope for at-large consideration if they lose. The best idea would be to beat Ohio and make it official. Beyond that, Akron beat Middle Tennessee at home. Middle Tennessee (28-5 | 19-1) | RPI: 29 | SOS: 134 | – A solid RPI and strong non-conference SOS ranked No. 8 in the nation are the real highlights for the Blue Raiders. Credit MTSU for a good effort. But … in its “up” games, MTSU went 2-3 (and we’re considering Vanderbilt and “up” game). They beat Ole Miss, but lost handily to Florida and Belmont. The loss at Akron was close – no shame there. Can one notable win (Ole Miss) carry the Blue Raiders? They have looked the part. At the same time, 21 of their wins came against teams ranked 150 or lower in the RPI (although most were mandated by conference play).