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Bubble Banter: Cal, Stanford need course correction

March 8, 2014 Leave a comment

dave1It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Pac-12 teams in the Bay Area.  California has lost three straight and four of five.  Stanford has also dropped three straight.  Both schools are coming off home losses (Utah and Colorado), and both need a course correction to avoid problems on Selection Sunday.

Bubble Banter – March 8

Stanford’s win at Connecticut is worth mentioning first, and perhaps puts the Cardinal a tiny bit ahead of Cal at this juncture.  As for the rest of its resume?  Stanford is 6-10 vs. Top 100 RPI teams and has a losing record (9-11) against the Top 150.  When you factor in the three-game skid – which included missed opportunities against Arizona and Arizona State – there’s reason for concern.  Other than the win at UConn, Stanford’s best non-conference victory is either Northwestern or  Denver.

California has its home win over Arizona.  Impressive as that is, the Bears are 6-11 vs. the RPI Top 100 and two of those wins are against Washington (No. 95 as of this morning – March 8). Outside the league, they beat Arkansas in Maui and also beat Denver.   Having played a couple more Top 150 games, Cal is 11-11 by comparison.  During its three-game slide, Cal also missed opportunities against Arizona and Arizona State.

Safe to say, both the Bears and Cardinal have work to do at the Pac-12 tournament. Read more…

Bubble Banter: Pittsburgh, California have work to do

March 4, 2014 Leave a comment

dave1A month ago, Pittsburgh was a no-doubt NCAA Tournament team.  The Panthers had battled Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Virginia to the final seconds in close losses.  Their efficiency numbers suggested a team that could win in March.  All they needed was a couple of notable victories to validate their position.  The problem: those victories have yet to materialize.

Bubble Banter – Update

Instead, less than two weeks before Selection Sunday, we find a Pittsburgh resume with only one victory against a projected NCAA team: Stanford (in November).  Since then, the Panthers have managed four Top 100 RPI wins: Maryland (twice), Clemson, and NC State.  And Monday night, the Wolfpack returned the favor by beating Pitt on its home floor.  So where does this leave the Panthers?  As a team with some work to do between now and March 16.  The one thing helping Pitt beyond those close losses is the absence of any bad losses (to sub-100 RPI teams).  Will that hold up if the Panthers take an early exit from the ACC Tournament? Read more…

Inside the Bracket: Stretch run key for several teams

February 23, 2014 Leave a comment

dave1It’s not a surprise to say the current NCAA Tournament bubble is soft.  While we most often focus  on the cutline (last teams in, first teams out), a few notable programs may not be as secure as it seems.  With Selection Sunday only three weeks away, the stretch run could make a huge difference.  Here are a four teams (of several) that could be on that list …

Memphis – The Tigers needed overtime at home to survive Temple on Saturday night which kept a truly bad loss off of their resume.  Here’s the concerning part: a 4-6 record against Top 100 RPI teams – which actually extends to the Top 150.  This could be one of those years when a team with a losing record against the top half of Division I  earns an at-large bid, but it certainly leaves some doubt about the Tigers’ overall standing.  Part of that is due to a weak bottom half of the American Athletic Conference. Part of it is losses against league leaders – save victory at Louisville in early January.  Memphis is 1-4 against American contenders (Cincinnati, Louisville, Connecticut, SMU).  Three of their remaining games are against those same squads.  If the Tigers were to finish 1-7 (or 2-6) against that target, it could bring some stressful moments come league tournament time.

Kansas State – While it’s hard to envision a team with eight Top 100 wins missing the NCAA Tournament right now, it’s worth nothing that the Wildcats are 1-6 in true road games (their only win was at TCU). K-State has remaining road trips to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, neither of which will be easy.  If they were to lose both and drop a home game to either Baylor or Iowa State down the stretch, an early exit from the Big 12 tourney could create some few tense moments in Manhattan. Read more…

Non-conference SOS may hinder some Bubble teams

January 25, 2014 Leave a comment

dave1The return of Bubble Banter is still a couple of weeks away.  Let’s at least get to the mid-point of the conference season.

That said, there are some current bubble teams who may face a greater at-large hurdle than others.  The reason: a non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) the sticks out like red flag.  While there is never an absolute, recent trends indicate that members of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Selection Committee value a team’s non-conference schedule (and performance) – for two primary reasons.  First, it indicates a team’s willingness to challenge itself in the non-conference season.  Second, it provides a greater range of opportunities to compare teams with similar resumes. 

We’ve seen teams with adequate conference records – or even stellar conference records in some mid-major leagues – be left out on Selection Sunday because of an unimpressive (or ugly) non-conference SOS.  Which current bubble teams might be facing similar SOS trouble in March?  Here’s 10 potential candidates – with their NC SOS numbers through games played on Thursday, January 23 (data from ESPN’s Insider RPI). Read more…

Saturday update: Race for final spots resumes

March 16, 2013 Leave a comment

dave1If anything, Friday complicated an already complicated bubble picture.  The SEC could end up with five teams or two.  Both are in play at this point.  How will the NCAA Selection Committee handle Middle Tennessee State and Saint Mary’s?  And how will they compare those teams against La Salle, Boise State, and even Oklahoma?  These are questions we can try to answer, but none of us has a vote that matters.

Heading into action on Saturday, there are three particular wildcards in play: Southern Mississippi, Maryland, and Massachusetts.  Any of those could still earn automatic bids to the Field of 68.  And that might be what it takes.  Vanderbilt is more of a longshot, but the Commodores are a victory over Ole Miss from playing for an SEC title.  We’ve seen this type of mayhem before.  We also can’t completely forget about Akron should the Zips lose in the Mid-American championship game to Ohio.  Clear as mud, right?

March 16 Bracket update  |  10:50 a.m.

March 16 Bubble Banter update  |  9:00 a.m.

March 16 s-curve update  |  11:30 a.m.

We’re going to start here for now:  the Last 5 IN today are Boise State, Tennessee, La Salle, Saint Mary’s, and Middle Tennessee.  The First Five OUT are Ole Miss, Kentucky, Alabama, Massachusetts, and Virginia.  All of these resumes have issues.  Which issues the collective Committee values more could help shape the final at-large spots. Tomorrow is a new day. We’ll review everything again and see how it looks.

Enjoy the games.  Selection Sunday is almost here.

Inside the Bracket: March 15 s-curve / bracket updates…

March 15, 2013 Leave a comment

dave1Several bubble teams ended their seasons – and likely their NCAA tournament aspirations – on Thursday.  That’s good news for those bubble teams who either didn’t play, or those like Iowa State, that posted important victories.  Today might be even an more important day.  The SEC quarterfinals are full of bubble action: Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss take to the court.   Two of those probably survive.  At least that’s the way it looks right now.

March 15 Bracket Projection  |  11:30 a.m. ET

March 15 s-curve update  |  7:20 a.m.  ET

As of this morning, this is where I believe we stand:  Last 5 IN … Oklahoma, Boise State, La Salle, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky  |   First 5 OUT …  Virginia, Middle Tennesse State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Iowa.

Beyond the bubble, several important seeding games are on tap today.  Louisville (vs. Notre Dame) and Georgetown (vs. Syracuse) are still battling for a potential No. 1 seed.  Kansas, New Mexico, Miami-FL, and the Big Ten heavyweights also take the floor.  Here’s to another great day of college hoops.

Bubble Update: A long wait for Saint Mary’s, Middle Tennessee

March 12, 2013 Leave a comment

dave1It’s going to be a long wait for Saint Mary’s and Middle Tennessee.  The Gaels lost to Gonzaga for a third time Monday night, and the Blue Raiders fell in the semifinals of the Sun Belt.  Which leaves both in agonizing limbo until the NCAA Selection Show this Sunday.   An already tough job for members of the NCAA Selection Committee in Indianapolis just became that much tougher.

March 12 Bubble Banter   |  12:30 p.m. ET

Overall, the bubble remains very fluid with only a few days to go.  At the very least we have five or six spots up for grabs.  Right now, it looks like as many as 11 spots have yet to be confirmed.  Some teams in those spots are better positioned than others.  Conference tournament results are going to matter, probably more than usual.

Pending results in the Pac-12 and Mountain West tournaments are particularly intriguing.  While California and Oregon remains as teams that “Should Be In” today, neither can be considered locks.  Colorado opens with Oregon State, a team that just beat the Buffaloes.  Another loss to the Beavers could make things a bit more interesting.  Not that Colorado won’t make it, but there would certainly be a few anxious moments ahead.  In the Mountain West, Boise State and San Diego State square off in the quarterfinals.  And while it’s probable that both make the Field of 68 regardless, the loser won’t be quite as certain – especially if we have an upset winner or two elsewhere.

Enjoy the week of Madness!

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