Bubble Banter: Big weekend for several teams

Our current NCAA tournament bubble isn’t necessarily any weaker, but it certainly isn’t shrinking.  Games this weekend should help clear up a few spots – although it hasn’t happened yet.  Right now, there are 25 teams listed as projected locks, with another seven teams in strong position to claim a bid (Should Be In).  When you add in the 31 automatic qualifers (minus projected locks), that leaves us with about 16 spots.  Some of the bubble teams are in stronger position than others.

March 3 Bubble Banter update.

A few quick thoughts about the weekend …

• Connecticut and Mississippi State are the two BCS teams currently in our bracket that most need victories this weekend. Connecticut hosts Pittsburgh and Mississippi State hosts Arkansas.
• Cincinnati should punch its ticket by winning at Villanova.  A loss would make the Bearcats’ Big East tournament opener more important.
• Northwestern needs to win its game at Iowa, but that won’t be easy. The Hawkeyes have been a tough out at home.
• Washington can wrap up a Pac-12 title by winning at UCLA.  That won’t guarantee the Huskies a spot, but it would certainly help.
• Virginia travels to Maryland with a two-game losing streak.  A loss would drop the Cavaliers to 8-8 in the ACC and make UVA’s opening round ACC tournament game much more intense.

Enjoy a weekend of college hoops.  Several teams will punch NCAA dance tickets.

Bubble Banter: West Virginia continues slide toward bubble trouble

Marquette rallied in Morgantown Friday night and handed West Virginia its seventh loss in nine games.  The Mountaineers are sliding, and headed straight toward potential bubble trouble.  Not that WVU is alone.  Mississippi State and Southern Mississippi have created their own issues.  Southern Miss has lost back-to-back games to Houston and UTEP – which follows an earlier loss this month to UAB.  Mississippi State has lost four straight and now leaves home for two straight SEC road games – starting at Alabama.  It’s never easy to close out an NCAA bid.

February 24 Bubble Banter

Championship Week is shaping up to be quite interesting.  What are the odds that conference favorites all win their tournaments?  Less that fifty percent, most likely.  That means we’ll have a few bid stealers before Selection Sunday.  It’s almost March.  Who’s ready for a little Madness?

Enjoy a great weekend of hoops.  I’ll try to have more frequent updates as we go through the final two weeks.

Bubble Banter update: One month until Selection Sunday

The latest edition of Bubble Banter projects 32 teams as either “locks” or teams that “should be in” with a month of action remaining until Selection Sunday.  With 68 total spots available (including 31 automatic qualifiers), there are roughly 14 spots available and 37 teams on the bubble.  As clarification, several teams listed as bubble teams could win automatic bids; so the number is still somewhat fluid.

February 10 Bubble Banter

This is especially true for teams like Harvard, Oral Roberts, Long Beach State, and Nevada.  Harvard can lock up a bid within a couple of weeks because the Ivy League doesn’t have a conference tournament.  ORU, Long Beach State, and Nevada will all be favorites to win their league tournaments.  The real test for the Selection Committee begins when (or if) these teams fall short of being an automatic qualifier.  How do their resumes compare against fellow bubble dwellers – such as Minnesota, Northwestern, Mississippi, Arizona, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Xavier, Central Florida, and a host of others.  Hopefully, we’ll sort a few things out in the next three weeks.

Until then, we’ll note these changes from last week: La Salle, Stanford, Oklahoma, and Marshall have been removed from the bubble.  Any or all could potentially return, but for now, their profiles are too far down the at-large board.  Teams joining the bubble include Illinois, Pittsburgh, and Wyoming.  Wyoming moves up to join Colorado State and New Mexico in the Mountain West.  Illinois drops down thanks to an ongoing slide and projected tough finish in the Big Ten.  Pitt joins largely due to the return of Tray Woodall.

Enjoy a great weekend of hoops.

Bubble Banter 2012: Connecticut among teams with work to do

When the Super Bowl ends on Sunday night, the sports world will turn its attention toward March Madness.  We’ll begin to think more seriously about No. 1 seeds, brackets, and oh yea, those teams on the bubble.  Must be time to debut Bubble Banter.

As it’s still more than a month from Selection Sunday, the bubble picture remains quite fluid.  If we could see into the future, the March 3rd edition of Bubble Banter will likely look much different than today’s version.  If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, several teams currently on solid ground will slip in the next four weeks.  There will also be teams which work their way into the at-large discussion.

February 3 Bubble Banter

First, a couple of housekeeping notes.  To keep the bubble reasonable, we’ve been generous with teams listed as Should Be In.  We’ve also been realistic about which teams we’ve listed on the bubble.  So if your team is missing, it’s not personal.  There just isn’t enough resume material to be a realistic at-large candidate at this point in time.  Take for example, Drexel, VCU, Old Dominion, and George Mason of the Colonial.  The highest RPI of that group belongs to Drexel (No. 79).  Here are the other numbers – VCU (91), George Mason (107), Old Dominion (125).  All four teams are 10-2 in CAA play.  Great league records, but none of the profiles includes a Top 50 RPI win.  Drexel has three sub-100 RPI losses, and the Dragons’ best win is VCU.  Could any of these teams pull an upset? Sure, but right now the CAA champion is closer to a 14 seed than an at-large bid.

Among BCS teams, defending champion Connecticut is a surprise guest on the bubble list.  The Huskies have lost four straight and 6 of 8 games – including losses to Rutgers and Tennessee.  While UConn would likely be in the Field of 68 today, their outlook is somewhat suspect.  Without a quick turnaround, the Huskies four-game slide could easily become seven.  That would most certainly put UConn in a very dangerous position.

Debate is always fun, and we’re about to move into high gear.  Enjoy a great weekend of hoops.  March is just around the corner.

Inside the Bracket: Bubble update and the Big East

Welcome to Bracketville

Four days until Selection Sunday.  The next 48 hours are like Saturday at the Masters: Moving Days.  The Big Ten, ACC, and SEC join the post-season tournament party with a host of teams trying to make a final impression on Selection Committee members gathered in Indianapolis.  We also have the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and Pac-10 moving into quarterfinal action.  Every bubble team gets its day on the court.

March 9 Bubble Banter | updated at 11:30 p.m. ET

Away from the bubble,  it’s all about seeding.  A couple of spots on the s-curve might make the difference between playing closer to home or being sent cross-country.  We also have at least one No. 1 seed up for grabs.  In the west, all eyes will be on BYU - what statement will the Cougars make at the Mountain West tournament?

With Marquette’s win over West Virginia Wednesday night, it looks all but certain that 11 Big East teams will earn bids to the NCAA tournament. A couple will limp in – Villanova and Georgetown – but we’ll have a first (besides the First Four) during the 2011 Madness.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Villanova, Georgetown, and Marquette in 8-9 games (unless the Eagles keep winning or we get confirmation that Chris Wright is returning for the Hoyas).

Any upsets this year?  Last year, we went down to the wire with Mississippi State in the SEC tournament.  What if Utah State loses in the WAC?  What about UAB if they fall in the Conference USA final?  It looks like we still have 10 spots available.  For the latest, follow along on Twitter @BracketguyDave.  March Madness. Gotta love it.