Big Ten dominates the latest Power 24 update

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By most statistical measures, the Big Ten is the No. 1 conference through the first month-plus of the season.  The league is first in the RPI, first in overall winning percentage, and its teams have compiled wins over top teams in other BCS conferences.  Thus, it’s no real surprise the Big Ten has six teams in this week’s Power 24 – led by Ohio State, which stays at No. 2.  Yes, the Buckeyes lost at Kansas but Jared Sullinger didn’t play.  Winning at KU is tough at full strength, so not having a potential first team All-American on the floor is a valid consideration.

December 12 – Power 24

Kentucky stays at No. 1.  Even though the Wildcats played a rather poor first half in Bloomington, they fought back and nearly pulled out a huge road victory.  No reason to drop UK for a one-point loss in an extremely hostile environment.  Syracuse holds firm at No. 3.  It would have been easy to move the Orange into the No. 1 spot once UK and OSU lost.  Syracuse may well prove to be the best team.  As of Monday, however, the Orange had yet to play a true road game.  We’ll re-evaluate the order once ‘Cuse plays at NC State this weekend.

Indiana and Illinois join the rankings this week.  Memphis and Arizona fall out.  Arizona remains close thanks to a tight road loss at Florida.  Memphis has tossed aside most of its non-conference chances, and will have a difficult time challenging for a Top 5 seed in March.  Congratulations to Murray State on its win at Memphis Sunday.  The Racers begin the week at No. 32 on the S-curve.  That would be an 8-seed.  Quite an accomplishment for a team from the Ohio Valley Conference.

 

North Carolina, Kentucky headline off-season Power 24

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With the entry deadline for the 2011 NBA Draft behind us, time for an updated Power 24 here at Bracketville.  The first two selections were pretty easy: North Carolina and Kentucky.  Harrison Barnes and a host of other talented Tar Heels return to Chapel Hill.  UNC came within a game of the Final Four this past March, and Carolina should be an early favorite to cut down the nets in 2012.  Close behind is Kentucky.  Yes, the Wildcats lost Brandon Knight, but Terrence Jones decided to stay and will be joined by yet another top-flight recruiting class.

If you think of the Top 4 teams as potential No. 1 seeds, the remaining slots belong to Syracuse and Ohio State.  The Orange return a host of talent and figure to open play in November as the Big East favorite.  Once Jared Sullinger decided to stay in Columbus, the Buckeyes became the team to beat in the Big Ten – again.

The rest of the Top 10 looks like this … Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, Vanderbilt, Arizona, and Memphis.

Wisconsin opens at No. 11 thanks to Jordan Taylor staying in Madison.  The Badgers are followed by Kansas, Alabama, Michigan and Florida in the Top 15.  Then we find Marquette, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Xavier and Missouri rounding out the Top 20.  The Big East will be good again – but not as strong as this past season.

Our final Power 24 spots go to … Florida State, Texas, Gonzaga, and UCLA.

You could easily make a case for several other teams.  Others considered were Baylor, Texas AM, George Mason, Michigan State, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Temple, Georgetown, Georgia, Colorado, and Butler.  Butler will again be good, but it’ll be hard to replace to replace both Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard.

San Diego State continues climb in Power 24/Bracket

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Through games played December 19, we seem to have a Big 3 in college hoops – Duke, Ohio State, Kansas.  Who belongs (and in what order) in the next six spots is more heavily debated.  In our latest Power 24 (Dec. 20), Connecticut takes spot No. 4 and projects as the final No. 1 seed.  By winning a top-heavy Maui Invitational, the Huskies have a solid non-conference profile.  How the Big East plays out remains to be seen.  Note: Power 24 reflects games through December 19 only.

Three more Big East teams – Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Syracuse – arrive next.  No real argument if you have a different order.  Georgetown has done the best work overall, reflected in its No. 1 RPI ranking (through Dec. 19).  Part of the Power 24 also projects ahead, so Pitt remains a slight step in front looking forward.  Syracuse has yet to play a true road game; we have to consider that point.

Reaching No. 8 is San Diego State – putting the Aztecs in line for a No. 2 seed in the West Region.  SDSU would love games in Tucson and then Anaheim. In comparison, San Diego State has won four true road games and played six total games away from home – opening with five straight outside San Diego.  Wins at Gonzaga and over Wichita State and St. Mary’s look to be NCAA-caliber.  Their next two are in Las Vegas – making it eight road/neutral games in non-conference play.  That type of challenge will pay big dividends in March.  When you factor in the overall strength of the Mountain West – especially at the top – there’s no reason to think SDSU can’t earn a No. 2 seed.  A No. 1?  That may depend more on what happens in the Big 10, Big East, and Big 12.  What the Aztecs also need is for BYU, UNLV and New Mexico to continue playing well.  As of December 20, the Mountain West ranks No. 6 in conference RPI (according to CollegeRPI.com).

December 20 Bracket Projection

Weekly bracket updates return January 3.  Other than some seeding evaluations, not a lot of changes from the December 6 bracket.  Drexel is one new arrival, replacing Butler.  We’ll have a much better feeling about the Bulldogs’ at-large chances after the Diamond Head Classic this week in Honolulu.  The field includes Baylor, Florida State, Washington State, and Mississippi State.  Oklahoma State is the other new addition.  The once-beaten Cowboys (10-1) may not survive the Big 12, but they have done more than Cincinnati (No. 329 non-conference schedule).  The Bearcats may well regret a two-month hiatus to start the season.  With no marquis wins out-of-conference, it’ll take some hefty work in the Big East to be in the discussion on Selection Sunday.

Other teams who are just on the doorstep: Xavier, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi, VCU, Maryland, Virginia Tech, UCLA, and South Carolina.  We also can’t sleep on Marquette, Iowa State, and Missouri State.  Have a different opinion?  Rebounds always welcome.  E-mail at bracketville.hoops@gmail.com and follow on Twitter at twitter.com/BracketguyDave.

Power 24 update: Duke, OSU hold top spots

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Duke and Ohio State remain 1-2 in our latest Power 24.  Kansas moves up to No. 3.  The Jayhawks put together an impressive second-half against Memphis in New York, and now await the arrival of Josh Selby on Saturday.

This is where it gets a bit more tricky.  Fresh off a virtual road win against Pittsburgh, Tennessee vaults into the No. 4 spot, followed closely by Connecticut.  Both the Vols and Huskies have impressed – and surprised.  Tennessee because of all the off-court issues surrounding head coach Bruce Pearl.  Connecticut because few of us anticipated Kemba Walker would carry his team to a Maui championship and beyond.

View our December 13 edition of Power 24.

Any number of teams could claim spots this week.  The only changes: Temple returns following its win over Georgetown, and Washington leaves after falling a point short at Texas A-M.  It’s not a bad loss, but the Huskies (Washington variety) have missed on most of their “good win” chances – beating only Virginia in Maui.

Louisville sits at No. 25 – one spot out of the rankings.  Good win last weekend over UNLV, but like all of the Cardinals’ wins to date, it was at home.  Louisville hasn’t yet left its new KFC Yum! Center surroundings.  That changes on a Dec. 23 trip to Western Kentucky.  By comparison, UNLV (No. 17 this week) has played just four home games; winning five away from Vegas, including two true road games and three at the 76 Classic.  At this point, UNLV’s overall body of work is more impressive. 

Rebounds always welcome.  Next Power 24 update and bracket update will be Monday, December 20.

Power 24 Update: Gonzaga slides out …

Our latest Power 24 update has a surprise.  Gonzaga just misses, coming in at No. 25.  How is that, with a 21-5 record and No.23 non-conference strength of schedule?  In synopsis, two of the ‘Zags best wins are against league foe St. Mary’s.  Their other quality wins – Wisconsin and Cincinnati (Maui) and Illinois (Jan. 2) all came a while ago.  The Bulldogs were crushed by Duke and lost at home to Wake Forest.   Then there are the two hiccups to San Francisco and Loyola-Marymount in the past three weeks.  Gonzaga is a solid team, but now lands as the highest No. 7 seed on our S-curve.

February 22 Power 24

No big changes at the top … Kansas remains No. 1 – followed by Syracuse, Kentucky and Purdue.  Welcome to the Richmond Spiders, who come it at No. 24 – one spot ahead of Gonzaga.  Rebounds are always welcome.  New bracket projection out later today.