Inside the Bracket: Teams (names) behind the numbers …

It’s always an interesting exercise when you take a team’s name away from its numbers.   To demonstrate, let’s look at some numbers used by the NCAA Selection Committee to select and seed teams for the tournament.  We’ll refer to them as Team A, etc. during the first part of the exercise, and reveal the names at the end of the column.  Data comes from collegerpi.com (through Feb. 7).

Let’s go Inside the Bracket …

Team           Road    RPI 1-50    Top 100    Losses 100+    SOS    NC-SOS   Field wins

Team A         2-5         3-3           6-3             142, 144            48           90             3

Team B         2-3         5-5           7-6                139                20           121            4

Team C         8-3         3-1           5-3                151                94           137            2

Team D         5-2         4-3           6-3                 NA                85            208           4

Team E         3-3         0-4           3-7                 NA                83             94            0

Team F         6-1          3-1           6-2                NA                123          166            2

Team G        3-3          3-4           5-6                 NA                79            226           2

Team H        7-2          2-2           8-3                 NA                35            41             2

We purposely didn’t include overall Division I record (through Feb. 7) or conference record to make it more difficult to identify the teams in question – even though both are important factors.  Field Wins refers to victories over teams currently projected to make the NCAA tournament (from our latest bracket projection).  For simplicity, we didn’t include teams from non-BCS conferences who were in the bracket as automatic qualifiers.  SOS refers to strength of schedule and NC-SOS refers to non-conference strength of schedule.

Using the data above, how would you rank the teams?  Everyone will have a different opinion on which criteria is most important.  That’s why the actual selection process involves a series of confidential voting procedures.  Committee members debate, make arguments, discuss concerns, etc.  Then, it’s put to a vote.  A certain number of votes are needed for teams to move “IN” the bracket or to be placed on a seed line.  I’m looking forward to learning more about the process during the NCAA Mock Selection event next week in Indianapolis.

Are quality wins your most important criteria?  Road record? How do you factor in losses to sub-100 teams?  These are just a few considerations.  Something else to note: take away wins over teams ranked below 200 in the RPI (lower third of Division I).  Sometimes, that gives you a different insight into how well a team’s overall record matches its performance.  We’re not picking on Murray State – an excellent team having a remarkable season. But let’s use the Racers as an example.  If you remove Murray’s 12 wins against teams ranked 200 or lower, the Racers’ D-1 record is 8-0.  That’s why it will be difficult for Murray State to earn a protected seed.

Time to reveal the names behind the numbers.  See if it changes your opinion of how you ranked them …

Team A: Florida … Team B: Illinois … Team C: Creighton … Team D: San Diego State … Team E: Washington … Team F: St. Mary’s … Team G: Kansas State … Team H: Southern Mississippi

The purpose of the exercise isn’t to make you change your mind.  Rather, it’s designed to provide an insight into a team’s evaluation without the potential bias associated with the name on the jersey.  Hopefully, you found the exercise informative.

January 2 Bracket: Syracuse leads Countdown to Selection Sunday

Welcome to 2012:  Time to renew our Countdown to Selection Sunday.  Today begins our weekly journey toward the Field of 68 and March Madness.   I’m grateful for a continued partnership with NBC Sports.  You can find our bracket projections, bubble banter, and some of our inside the bracket features at Beyond the Arc, too.  With that, let’s take a peek into our first bracket of 2012 …

Conference play will help separate the pretenders and contenders.  Right now, the difference between seed lines and even our final IN and OUT selections is minimual – splitting hairs, really.  What we do have is a starting point.  Several teams in the current bracket will likey play their way out.  Others will move up and in.  Everything is fluid.

January 2 – Bracket Projection

Schedule of key games this week

Team Capsules for key wins/losses

Today’s No. 1 seeds are Syracuse (East), Kentucky (South), North Carolina (Midwest), and Ohio State (West).  We can argue the order, but no one will be surprised to see those four at the top of a regional in March.  Duke and Baylor are next in line.  Several others could push their way into contention.  We’ll have to see how it plays out over the next month.

The Big Ten has nine teams in this bracket, although seven or eight are more realistic in March.  While the strength of the conference (Big Ten is No. 1 in the RPI) will help, there are too many variables to think 9 of 12 teams will end up in the field.  Of course, that all depends on what happens elsewhere.  Will we have a surprise team in the Big 12, ACC or SEC claim an extra spot or two.  There will also be upsets in conference tournaments.  Leagues to watch for extra bids include the Missouri Valley, Atlantic 10, Conference USA, and the West Coast.

Thanks for your interest and let’s enjoy our ride to Selection Sunday.

Inside the Bracket: At-Large picture – Part II

Just in time for Christmas, here’s Part II of the at-large landscape.  This version focuses on teams from the BCS conference along with those from the Mountain West, Conference USA, and Atlantic 10.  As we noted in Part I, conference season begins in full force next week, and a lot of basketball remains.  The goal is to provide a quick peek into the at-large picture ahead of Bubble Banter in February.

It’s too early to lock any teams into the NCAA Tournament.  For the purposes of time and space, however, we’re not going to dwell on the at-large possibilities for teams like Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse, Duke, etc.  If January turns sour, then we’ll catch up on those teams in February.  Let’s go Inside the Bracket:

Kansas State – The Wildcats play Long Beach State on Sunday for the Diamond Head Classic title in Honolulu.  A victory would add LBSU to a win list that includes Alabama and Virgina Tech (road).  K-State lost a neutral court game to West Virginia.  While the rest of the non-conference resume is light, the Wildcats enter Big 12 play in pretty good position.  West Virginia and Virginia Tech are both potential bubble teams, so a split is okay.  The key will be finding victories against Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri and finishing among the top four or five in conference play.  Kansas State opens at rival KU on January 4.  After that, it’s Missouri and Baylor at home.  So the Wildcats can set an NCAA footprint early.

Texas AM – If you take a closer look at the Aggies, one thing becomes apparent: an NCAA bid is in serious jeopardy.  The Aggies non-conference schedule strength (No. 337) is dreadful, and TxAM’s best win is St. John’s.  Furthering the issue is a lopsided loss at Florida and follow-up home loss to Rice.  It will take some serious work in the Big 12 to overcome the Aggies’ start.  That work begins at Baylor on January 2.  Flashback: Colorado (last March).  The Buffaloes won some big games in the Big 12 but were left home on Selection Sunday thanks to a non-conference SOS that mirrors the Aggies’ in 2011-12.

Inside the Bracket: At-large Picture – Part I

Let’s go Inside the Bracket for a look at which non-majors have put themselves in a position to be in the at-large discussion next March.  There is, of course, a lot of basketball yet to be played, so things may look a bit different when we launch Bubble Banter in February.  We’ll call this Stocking Stuffer Part I.  Part II will feature a look at major conference teams that could be on or near the bubble come March.  Note: For this discussion, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and Conference USA teams will be featured in Part II.

At-Large Picture – Part I: Teams to watch …

Murray State  -  The Racers have beaten Southern Mississippi at the Great Alaska Shootout, Dayton at home, and Memphis on the road.  Those were the three biggest challenges on Murray’s non-conference slate.  The victory at Memphis figures to hold the most weight, although the Tigers have not looked much like a Top 20 team this season.  Road Bumps: The Ohio Valley Conference isn’t very strong and will certainly be an anchor to Murray’s RPI and overall strength-of-schedule.  The Racers have also played three non-Division I opponents – two of those scheduled at home.  If Murray can finish its non-conference slate unbeaten, the Racers should be able to absorb a loss or two in the OVC.  Any more than that, plus a loss in the OVC tournament, would make it interesting.  How Southern Miss, Dayton, and Memphis finish the season will also be a factor.

Creighton – The Bluejays’ victory at San Diego State could pay big dividends in March.  Beating Northwestern (Dec. 22) will be important, too.  That would leave Creighton 2-1 against its best non-conference opponents (CU lost at St. Joseph’s).  Given the Bluejays status as Missouri Valley favorite, the outlook for an at-large bid is favorable if the scenario above unfolds.  Road Bumps: Playing on the road in the Valley is never easy, but it will be important for Creighton to avoid “bad losses” along the way.  It will also help if CU separates itself with or above Northern Iowa and Wichita State at the top of the standings.

Northern Iowa – While the Panthers are off to a strong start – including a 4-1 record away from home, they lack a marquee victory.  UNI’s win at Old Dominion was solid but the Panthers followed it up with a double-digit loss at St. Mary’s – another potential bubble team.  The game with Ohio (Dec. 20) figures to be huge for both schools.  Road Bumps: Northern Iowa will need to keep pace – and beat – both Creighton and Wichita State during the Missouri Valley season.  Much like Creighton, UNI will need to avoid “bad losses” to those at the bottom of the league standings.

Big Ten dominates the latest Power 24 update

Welcome to Bracketville

By most statistical measures, the Big Ten is the No. 1 conference through the first month-plus of the season.  The league is first in the RPI, first in overall winning percentage, and its teams have compiled wins over top teams in other BCS conferences.  Thus, it’s no real surprise the Big Ten has six teams in this week’s Power 24 – led by Ohio State, which stays at No. 2.  Yes, the Buckeyes lost at Kansas but Jared Sullinger didn’t play.  Winning at KU is tough at full strength, so not having a potential first team All-American on the floor is a valid consideration.

December 12 – Power 24

Kentucky stays at No. 1.  Even though the Wildcats played a rather poor first half in Bloomington, they fought back and nearly pulled out a huge road victory.  No reason to drop UK for a one-point loss in an extremely hostile environment.  Syracuse holds firm at No. 3.  It would have been easy to move the Orange into the No. 1 spot once UK and OSU lost.  Syracuse may well prove to be the best team.  As of Monday, however, the Orange had yet to play a true road game.  We’ll re-evaluate the order once ‘Cuse plays at NC State this weekend.

Indiana and Illinois join the rankings this week.  Memphis and Arizona fall out.  Arizona remains close thanks to a tight road loss at Florida.  Memphis has tossed aside most of its non-conference chances, and will have a difficult time challenging for a Top 5 seed in March.  Congratulations to Murray State on its win at Memphis Sunday.  The Racers begin the week at No. 32 on the S-curve.  That would be an 8-seed.  Quite an accomplishment for a team from the Ohio Valley Conference.