S-Curve
This year we are including the full s-curve with our bracket updates. As time permits – and the tournament nears – I’ll try to update the list more frequently. Off site, the s-curve is updated daily. Below are two tables used to display the current s-curve – a tool used by the Selection Committee to seed teams into the bracket.
March 17 update: Final s-curve (2013)
With the Big Ten championship game ended late, the s-curve was finalized mid-afternoon in advance of the final projected bracket. I’m not sure one more game would have mattered.
A couple of things to note:
Teams listed in ALL CAPS have earned an automatic bid to the tournament. The highest remaining seed in a conference tournament will be used as the champion (in most cases) until all the automatic bids have been updated.
Updated: Sunday, March 17 | 5:30 p.m. | For games through Sunday, March 17
To make it easier to follow, I didn’t use an actual “S” shape on the table; rather the highest seed on each line is to the left.
| MARCH 17 | S-CURVE RANKINGS | 1-68 | |||
| 1. Indiana | 2. LOUISVILLE | 3. Duke | 4. KANSAS |
| 5. GONZAGA | 6. Georgetown | 7. New Mexico | 8. MIAMI-FL |
| 9. OHIO STATE | 10. Michigan State | 11. Michigan | 12. Florida |
| 13. Wisconsin | 14. Syracuse | 15. Kansas State | 16. SAINT LOUIS |
| 17. Marquette | 18. Arizona | 19. Oklahoma | 20. UNLV |
| 21. Notre Dame | 22. Pittsburgh | 23. Butler | 24. VCU |
| 25. OREGON | 26. CREIGHTON | 27. UCLA | 28. North Carolina |
| 29. NC State | 30. Colorado State | 31. Missouri | 32. Illinois |
| 33. MEMPHIS | 34. San Diego State | 35. Wichita State | 36. Cincinnati |
| 37. Villanova | 38. Minnesota | 39. Colorado | 40. Temple |
| 41. Iowa State | 42. California | 43. Oklahoma | 44. MISSISSIPPI |
| 45. Boise State | 46. Tennessee | 47. La Salle | 48. Saint Mary’s |
| 49. BELMONT | 50. BUCKNELL | ||
| 51. AKRON | 52. NEW MEXICO ST | 53. SO DAKOTA ST | 54. DAVIDSON |
| 55. VALPARAISO | 56. NORTHWESTERN ST | 57. FLA GULF COAST | 58. HARVARD |
| 59. MONTANA | 60. PACIFIC | 61. IONA | 62. ALBANY |
| 63. W. KENTUCKY | 64. LIU-BROOKLYN | 65. JAMES MADISON | 66. SOUTHERN |
| 67. NO CAROLINA AT | 68. LIBERTY | ||
This is where the FIRST OUT at-large teams begin. While Kentucky (in this case) isn’t rated lower than Liberty, automatic qualifiers have to be ranked within the Field of 68. That’s why I’ve compiled the s-curve this way. Other sites choose to compile the list differently. Either way is fine. To me, it’s just easier to see the clear break from which teams are IN and which are close but in the next tier.
| S-CURVE RANKINGS | 69 - 77 | |||
| 69. Kentucky | 70. Middle Tennessee | 71. Virginia | 72. Maryland |
| 73. Massachusetts | 74. Iowa | 75. Alabama | 76. Southern Miss |
| 77. Arizona State | 78. Stephen F. Austin | ||
Hopefully, you enjoy this new addition to Bracketville. Thanks for you continued interest. Please share your thoughts. That’s a huge part of the fun as we work toward Selection Sunday.
Please explain why everyone has so much love for UVA. I don’t dislike theCavaliers, but I don’t see how a team with so many bad losses can be so close to getting in.
Largely because Virginia is 6-0 vs. Top 100 teams. Not a lot of other “bubble” teams have that sort of mark. Does that eliminate UVA’s high number of “bad” losses? No. But teams are evaluated based on their entire resume. Quality wins count, too. And a victory at Wisconsin is of particular note. The “bad” losses are what’s keeping UVA on the bubble. Every Committee member will have a different opinion, but the Cavs will be discussed. The other thing hurting UVA that you didn’t mention is a non-conference SOS ranked No. 321. Historically, that has proven tough to overcome for bubble teams. It’s really in UVA’s hands. Win enough quality ACC games down the stretch (and avoid further bad losses) and the Cavs will make it. Otherwise, those losses and SOS will likely prove costly. Might be a very close call that comes down to an upset or two in conference tournaments.
UCF is ineligible for the NCAA tournament so curious as why you have them on the S-Curve at 92 ?
Just a mistake. They will not be in the next update.
I think that last night, the 27th helped the Iowa Hawkeyes, I know they have a bad loss to Nebraska but Maryland lost, ASU lost, Indiana State lost, Oklahoma lost, Charlotte lost. That should move the Hawks up a bit….????
Texas Southern can’t be in the NCAA Tournament due to Probation.
I like the S-Curve I print it out on every update and then track each teams wins and losses from that point. Now that we are about to start conf tournaments how often will you be updating the S-Curve ?
Thanks. I’ll probably update the latest sometime on Tuesday – to reflect the final of Monday’s games.
Love the S-Curve. As a Kentucky fan I think you actually have them too high no doubt they must beat Florida to have any chance. I don’t get Joe Lunardi’s last 4 out he has Southern Miss and Baylor there ? Makes zero sense Baylor is 16-13 and like 1-8 vs top 50 and a 4-10 vs top 100. Southern Miss has 0 top 50 and 1 top 90 RPI win. How can those 2 teams be in the last 4 out ?
As an Ohio State fan they are getting close to a 3 seed. I think you can make a case for them in front of Marquette based on Ohio State has not had a loss outside top 50 RPI while Marquette has a really bad loss by RPI standards @ Green Bay 171.
How can Tennessee be 41 and Kentucky be 50 on the S-Curve ? Both teams have nearly the same resume…they split H2H…Kenutcky has a better record 12-6, to 11-7. Kentucky has the higher RPI. Both teams have approx same quality wins. Both beat Florida and Missouri at home, both split H2H…Kentucky won at Ole Miss (Tenn got swept by Georgia and Ole Miss), Tenn beat Wichita State at home. Kentucky 50 RPI, Tenn 55 RPI. Don’t tell me Tenn has more RPI 50 wins because Kentucky sits at 50 instead of 51 that doesn’t matter only matters the quailty wins.
You need to move Kentucky up or Tenn back no way they are 9 apart no way.
Henry … First, nine spots at that point of the s-curve is not nearly the “difference” it appears. Second, head-to-head results not nearly as important as most people think, a very small part of a team’s resume, and only really considered if you were directly comparing Team A to Team B for one spot. But if you go that route, Tennessee beat KY’s current team by a large margin. Third, take a closer look at the resumes. The Vols have 9 Top 100 wins compared to UK’s 7. Tennessee also had a tougher in-conference SOS and currently has 4 wins against projected NCAA teams, while UK has three (Editor’s note: originally I mistakenly typed two; thanks to a reader this was caught and corrected). And outside of the league, the Vols’ wins over Wichita State, UMass and Xavier are better combined that UK’s single win over Maryland. You might be right, but I think if today were Selection Sunday, Tennessee would be ahead of UK, and while the gap overall is relatively small, it’s probably more than a couple of spots. I appreciate your interest and participation.
Actually Kentucky has 3 wins vs tournament teams. (Florida, Missouri, Tennessee) while you say Tennessee has 4 wins vs tournament teams (Florida, Missouri, Wichita State, Kentucky).
Kentucky also has a win at Ole Miss a team that could be considered a tournament team as they are right there on your edge. Kentucky did finish as #2 seed and Tenn #5 seed and Kentucky has 21-10 record vs Tenn 19-11 record, Kentucky has 12 SEC wins vs 11 SEC wins. Kentucky is RPI 50 and Tenn RPI 55…if you want to throw all those Kentucky advantages out the window then I guess Tenn is ranked higher. Either way I can’t see how Tenn who was 49 on your list beats Missouri moves all the way to 41 when Kentucky beats Florida (a better win) and only moved from 51 to 49.
Henry, you are correct, I meant to type 3 on UK’s wins vs. projected tournament teams (I’ll correct it with an editor’s note). We’ll just have to agree to disagree on what you perceive as a huge difference between 41 and 50. Given the current bubble, I don’t consider that a large separation. Also, resumes are constantly re-evaluated and sometimes one additional quality win (like Missouri) yesterday makes more of an overall impact on a team’s resume than it appears on the surface. Nothing happens in a vacuum. It was more a function of Tennessee’s position moving ahead of others at that point in time. Temple’s win over VCU today will likely cause a similar affect when the s-curve is updated again. By beating VCU, Temple’s current positive relative to other bubble teams improved more than one position. It wasn’t that beating VCU at home is necessary a “five slot” win (or however it turns out). Conference standings used to matter a lot more when conferences played round-robin schedules. Iowa had an easier B10 schedule and finished ahead of Illinois and Minnesota in the B10 tournament standings. Most who follow the process closely wouldn’t rank the Hawkeyes ahead of the Illini or Gophers based on overall resumes at this point. As a final quick note, Florida has proven to be a very unreliable road team in the SEC – especially in close games.
Baylor should be ahead of KY. Better wins and won head to head with Noel.
Brian, again head-to-head matchups are overused to evaluate teams. The margin between the two is small. But if you look at the entire resume, UK has more Top 100 wins. Baylor also lost 3 sub-100 games (Texas, Northwestern, Charleston). UK lost just one (Georgia). Again, we’re talking very small margins at this point, which is why the bubble is so fluid. By this time next week, the two could easily be reversed. We’ll see.
You mean 17-13 Baylor who has a 5-10 top 100 mark ? The only reason they have 3 top 50 wins is Kentucky moved from 51 to 50. Baylor lost at home to Charleston and Northwestern not only are those bad losses those are terrible because they were at home to sub 150 ranked teams.
17-13 that is too many losses for a team with only 2 wins vs sure fire touranment teams. I don’t even see Baylor as on the 1st 4 out.
Henry….I am not saying either should be in….but I think Baylor has a better resume. You can’t just strictly look at top 100 or 50 wins because that could be misleading (i.e., team beat 5 teams from 46-50 vs. team beat 3 from 1-3). Baylor has more quality wins and the head to head win. They were better then and are MUCH better now with Noel. However, again….neither should get in.
Funny 7of the future new big east 7 or by July be 12 butler, creighton,st Louis, vcu ,g,town villanova,Marquette
I think Kentucky will get in right now if season ended today and I think if Kentucky makes SEC semifinals they have a good chance.
Also be interesting to see where MTSU lands now….20 something RPI and not get in? Seems hard to believe.
SMC vs. MTSU?? Gonna be interesting for the committee on those two.
Kentucky should be ahead of Saint Mary’s for sure on the S-Curve, Saint Mary’s has 1 win vs an NCAA at large quality team and Kentucky has 3. Kentucky should also be in front of Tennessee in my opinion but that is splitting hairs. Boise State is listed as out on Joe Lunardi’s sheet.
That’s Lunardi’s (opinion). Boise State is making the tournament period.
Ole Miss swept Tennessee and made the Finals and Tenn lost in the quarters. Thinking Ole Miss is in and Tenn is out.
Ole MIss in and TN out….the rest is right. Easiest year to pick the bracket. Seeding is irrelevant this year.
If MTSU replaced TN…then I think I nailed the bracket 100%
Got all 68 right….one thing i realized a few years ago is that the committee does not value the conference champ. games at all. the “in” teams are set before the they really even start. only take out the last team if there is an upset. Just like the chairman said…Ole Miss was already in before the day started….didn’t matter. MTSU was in before it started.