S-Curve

This year we are including the full s-curve with our bracket updates. As time permits I’ll try to update the list more frequently. The actual s-curve is updated daily. Early in the season, teams tend to move more freely and quickly as the overall body of work is smaller. Below are two tables used to display the current s-curve – a tool used by the Selection Committee to seed teams into the bracket.

A couple of things to note:

Teams listed in ALL CAPS are those currently deemed to earn the automatic conference bid to the tournament (with the exception of teams that use abbreviations like UCLA, LSU). While conference play has begun for many teams, some teams have yet to begin league play; projected champions are based either on the current league leader, projected champion, or current record/RPI leader.

Updated: March 16, 2014 | FINAL

To make it easier to follow, I didn’t use an actual “S” shape on the table; rather the highest seed on each line is to the left.

MARCH 15 S-CURVE RANKINGS | 1-68
1. Florida 2. Arizona 3. WICHITA ST 4. Michigan
5. VIRGINIA 6. Villanova 7. Kansas 8. Wisconsin
9. Iowa State 10. Duke 11. Louisville 12. Creighton
13. Michigan State 14. Syracuse 15. Cincinnati 16. San Diego St
17. NEW MEXICO 18. Ohio State 19. UCLA 20. Connecticut
21. North Carolina 22. Baylor 23. Oklahoma 24. Kentucky
25. Texas 26. VCU 27. Massachusetts 28. Saint Louis
29. Oklahoma State 30. Oregon 31. Memphis 32. Geo Washington
33. GONZAGA 34. Kansas State 35. Pittsburgh 36. SAINT JOSEPH’S
37. Colorado 38. Stanford 39. Arizona State 40. Iowa
41. PROVIDENCE 42. Tennessee 43. Xavier 44. Nebraska
45. Dayton 46. SMU 47. BYU 48. HARVARD
49. NO DAKOTA ST 50. S.F. AUSTIN
51. MANHATTAN 52. W. MICHIGAN 53. TULSA 54. DELAWARE
55. LA-LAFAYETTE 56. NEW MEXICO ST 57. MERCER 58. E. KENTUCKY
59. NC CENTRAL 60. AMERICAN 61. MILWAUKEE 62. WOFFORD
63. WEBER STATE 64. ALBANY 65. CO CAROLINA 66. MT ST MARY’S
67. TX-SOUTHERN 68. CAL-POLY

This is where the FIRST OUT at-large teams begin. While Florida State (in this case) isn’t rated lower than Texas Southern, automatic qualifiers have to be ranked within the Field of 68. That’s why I’ve compiled the s-curve this way. Other sites choose to compile the list differently. Either way is fine. To me, it’s just easier to see the clear break from which teams are IN and which are close but in the next tier.

S-CURVE RANKINGS | 69 – 84
69. Florida State 70. Minnesota 71. Arkansas 72. California
73. Missouri 74. NC State 75. Green Bay 76. Georgia
77. Southern Miss 78. Illinois 79. Georgetown 80. St. John’s
81. Clemson 82. Mid Tennessee 83. Utah 84. W. Michigan

Hopefully, you enjoy this new addition to Bracketville. Thanks for you continued interest. Please share your thoughts. That’s a huge part of the fun as we work toward Selection Sunday.

  1. Henry Muto
    January 14, 2014 at 6:48 pm

    Always enjoy bantering back and forth with you about the seedings and who is in and out.
    It’s too early for me to try and figure this all out so I will wait until Feb to start looking closely at this while enjoying the games. Last year I got all 68 teams right for the first time ever something I will probably never do again.

  2. Henry Muto
    January 21, 2014 at 5:07 pm

    Xavier interesting case compared to Cincy….Xavier has better RPI 21 vs 23. Xavier has more top 100 wins (9 to 5) and Xavier crushed Cincy on a neutral court by 17 pts but Cincy is 15th and Xavier 30th on the S curve.

    Cincy has 3 top 50 wins to Xavier’s 1 (which was beating Cincy)

    Not saying right or wrong here just saying interesting especially since Xavier put a beat down on Cincy (I know just 1 game but what a game it was)

    • Dave Ommen
      January 21, 2014 at 7:12 pm

      I actually have Xavier’s RPI at 31 and Cincy’s at 20, but that’s not really critical. To me, the differences are these … Cincinnati’s two biggest wins (Pittsburgh and Memphis) were away from home – Pitt (neutral), Memphis (road). The Bearcats worst loss (if you will) was at The Pit in New Mexico. And both losses came a month ago. Xavier’s best win is Cincinnati. They also have two somewhat ugly losses (by a big margin to bubble team Tennessee, and against USC). The other thing I would say is that the distance between s-curve spots at this point in the season is not as large as it would be a month from now. Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon have all fallen double-digit spots in a week. If anything Xavier might be undervalued but right now, most of their wins are against teams outside the Field, if that makes sense. Could change quickly – as would their profile.

      • Henry Muto
        January 22, 2014 at 10:32 pm

        Another thing I missed saying – Xavier SOS 17, Cincy 88 at this moment in time.

  3. Henry Muto
    January 22, 2014 at 4:32 pm

    http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/nitty-clear

    This updates the RPI within minutes after every complete game and is identical to the NCAA version (I have compared them many times on Monday’s and they are always identical in rankings)

    Currently Cincy and Xavier are 22/23 on the RPI of course it changes every day.

  4. Henry Muto
    January 22, 2014 at 5:09 pm

    Shocking loss for Harvard last night I don’t even know why they scheduled that kind of game on the road during the conference season. I guess they didn’t expect to lose. That loss while not crippling to making the tournament because they were not getting an at large anyway it is crippling to their seed I believe.

  5. Henry Muto
    January 22, 2014 at 10:15 pm

    Ohio State’s RPI still around 16 and has losses to 3 really good/great teams. The Nebraska loss was bad and they have a top of top 100 wins but not “wow” wins…..went from a lay up at the buzzer away from winning at Michigan State to be 16-0 and a #1 seed all the way to #7 seed in your S-Curve. Quite a fall.

  6. Henry Muto
    January 25, 2014 at 11:52 am

    I love the S-Curve I actually usually only look at the S-Curve and don’t even look at the bracket projections and this year with the NCAA saying they will try to stick with the S-Curve more than in years past I think it means a lot more how they get seeded on the S-Curve.

    This is your best function on the site I think it gives a clear picture of where you feel a team stands where a bracket a team can be moved a seed line.

    Hopefully this year I can get all 68 teams again (last year 1st time I ever got all 68 right). I am not in the bracket matrix but for the past 10 years I have scored myself and seen where I would have stood. I would have actually came in 1st in the bracket matrix back in 2006 but of course there was only like 10 people listed with scores back in 2006 so not that hard.

    Every day I come on the site to see if the S-Curve is updated then print it out if it is and then track the games played by teams from that point forward until S-Curve is updated again.

    I actually have taken vacation every year since I started my current job back in 1994 to have my own committee time and make my own bracket I take the Wed-Selection Sunday off each year and make my own bracket and watch all the conf tournament games I think the conf tournament games leading to selection Sunday may actually be more fun then the 1st 4 days of the tournament (though its pretty close)

  7. Henry Muto
    January 25, 2014 at 11:57 am

    1 though about the S-Curve maybe you should use a different color like Red for teams that are auto bids instead of capitals or maybe do them in italiacs then they would not be confused with teams that are like BYU, ect. Just a tought.

  8. Henry Muto
    February 1, 2014 at 12:28 pm

    I don’t see how Kentucky and Louisville can be only apart by 1 on the curve.
    As of Saturday morning before any games played using the official RPI numbers.
    Kentucky RPI 19, Louisville RPI 39
    Kentucky SS 5, NC SS 9, Louisville SS 78, NC SSW 168
    Kentucky 3 top 50 wins, 8 top 100 wins, Louisville 2 top 50 wins, 3 top 100 wins
    Kentucky’s 3 wins over top 50 (Louisville, Tenn, Providence)
    Louisville’s 2 wins over top 50 (Connecticut, Southern Miss)

    Kentucky dominates Louisville in every area including beating them head to head.

    You have Kentucky ranked too low and Louisville ranked too high based on this info.

    Kentucky has a Non Conf SS of 9 and overall of 5 yet it seems your giving them no credit for this schedule.

    • Dave Ommen
      February 1, 2014 at 1:58 pm

      Henry … In my opinion, you’re emphasizing UK’s schedule and RPI given some other aspects of their resume. For example … Kentucky was 1-3 in road games entering today (Feb. 1) – the best win being Vanderbilt. If you consider Providence and Tennessee bubble teams, then two of UK’s three best wins against borderline NCAA competition – both at home. Yes, they beat Louisville at home, but Indiana beat Wisconsin at home, too. Kentucky’s non-conference SOS number is solid, but dig beyond the surface just a little: Four of those Top 100 wins were Eastern Michigan, Belmont, Boise State, and at Vanderbilt – none of those teams (other than perhaps Boise St) have any chance for an at-large bid at this point. Do I think Kentucky has the potential to be a Top 3-4 seed? Absolutely. Does their resume support that right now? I would say no. That’s just my opinion. A road win at Missouri today would certainly help.

  9. Henry Muto
    February 1, 2014 at 1:35 pm

    I can’t believe 14-7 NC State is in the field lost at home to NC Central and RPI 58, Non Conf SS of 107, Only 3 top 100 RPI wins. I know we need 68 teams but this is not NCAA worthy.

    • Dave Ommen
      February 1, 2014 at 2:07 pm

      I can’t believe NC State is the field right now either. But 36 at-larges are required. As a side note, NC State has 4 Top 100 wins and they have a road win at Tennessee. Again, picking out any one result is hazardous. The loss to NC Central (which is an AQ qualifier right now) was way back in November. At least they are .500 in conference. Take a look at SMU instead, the Mustangs have just one Top 100 win and lost at South Florida (which by the RPI is worse than NC Central). Do I think NC State will ultimately make the field? Probably not. But their very average resume is right there with a bunch of others at the moment.

  10. Henry Muto
    February 1, 2014 at 4:15 pm

    Got to love these people SMU is just 2-4 vs top 100 and you get this after 1 big home win.
    “SethOnHoops Seth Greenberg
    SMU is on their way to the dance in year two. Larry Brown not a good coach he is a great coach.”

  11. Henry Muto
    February 3, 2014 at 6:07 pm

    Kentucky at 19 still seems low to me I would have them ahead of Saint Louis, Oklahoma State, Virginia and Oklahoma.

    Kentucky has RPI of 13 and 3 top 50 wins and 8 top 100 wins
    Saint Louis has RPI of 27, only 1 top 50 win and 5 top 100 wins
    Oklahoma has RPI of 18, 3 top 50 wins, 5 top 100 wins and a home loss to Louisiana Tech
    Virginia has RPI of 16, 5 top 50 wins, 8 top 100 wins but losses to Green Bay, VCU and Tenn by 35 pts
    Oklahoma State has RPI of 24, 3 top 50 wins, 7 top 100 wins

  12. Henry Muto
    February 14, 2014 at 5:04 pm

    Every year everyone says this year is a weak bubble but I have to tell you this may be the weakest ever to see teams like West Virginia and Saint Joseph’s in the field. Also the Pac 12 just beats each other round robin style so they all end up making it in when maybe none should. This should be the year a La Tech can make the field with how bad these power conf teams are.

  13. Henry Muto
    February 14, 2014 at 5:04 pm

    It was Belmont that beat UNC not Davidson actually. I still think Davidson could give a 1 seed a run for their money.

  14. Rolltimber
    February 17, 2014 at 10:22 am

    Indiana State has the 4th most true road wins in the country, may end up 26-7 on the year. I do not believe they should be penalized for losing 3 games against virtually unbeatable opponents this year. Nobody has beaten Wichita St, and St Louis is entirely underrated. Add two single point losses and you have a team that is a couple possessions or homer calls away from being 22-4 right now.

    • Henry Muto
      February 22, 2014 at 11:42 am

      Indiana State has only 1 win vs top 100. No team has ever got a bid I believe with less than 3 top 100 wins. Their Non Conf SS is 204. They didn’t play anyone.

  15. Henry Muto
    February 22, 2014 at 11:41 am

    Michigan State continues to lose and continues to stay right at 6 so your saying if you have an injury you can just lose your games and it has no effect on your seed.

  16. Henry Muto
    February 22, 2014 at 1:20 pm

    Should Syracuse still be #1 on the S-Curve ? Losing to a horrific 6-19 BC team at home should count as 3 losses. Not only that they barely won vs Pitt and NC State. I can still see them as a 1 seed but not #1 overall.

  17. Henry Muto
    February 22, 2014 at 1:59 pm

    Bad losses seem to not matter much anymore BYU has a ton of them still in the field. North Carolina has a bunch.

  18. Henry Muto
    February 22, 2014 at 2:38 pm

    Keep in mind 1 of Green Bay’s losses were without star 7 footer Alec Brown. With how terrible the bubble is and Green Bay beating Virginia and barely losing to Wisky if Green Bay finishes 14-2 in the Horizon and losses in the tile game they should get strong consideration.

    • Nick Tursi
      February 23, 2014 at 11:28 am

      If Green Bay wins out and loses the horizon title game they will definitely be an at large team. Remember Middle Tennessee last season?

  19. Henry Muto
    February 24, 2014 at 4:25 pm

    It still says FEBRUARY 17 S-CURVE RANKINGS | 1-68 on the top

    • Dave Ommen
      February 24, 2014 at 8:17 pm

      Noticed that earlier. Thanks for letting me know.

  20. fartoogoneagain
    February 28, 2014 at 4:10 pm

    For a team that has lost 5 of their last 8 and beat no ranked teams this year, Pitt seems awfully high on the S-curve. This is the flaw of RPI….lose to really good teams and beat a lot of average teams gets you a pretty high score. Pitt might lose two of their final three games.

  21. Henry Muto
    March 1, 2014 at 11:11 am

    Louisville has only 4 top 100 wins they are currently 0-0 vs teams ranked 51-100.

    They only have 4 total losses which is why they are seeded so high but to only have played 8 total games vs top 100 is what most mid majors schedules are like.

    RPI – Kentucky 14, Louisville 27
    SOS – Kentucky 4, Louisville 101
    NC SOS – Kentucky 11, Louisville 101
    vs top 50 RPI – Kentucky 3-4, Louisville 4-4
    vs 51-100 RPI – Kentucky 10-3, Louisville 0-0
    vs 101-200 RPI – Kentucky 3-0, Louisville 9-0
    vs 201+RPI – Kentucky 5-0, Louisville 11-0

    Head to Head Kentucky wins (at home)

  22. Henry Muto
    March 2, 2014 at 1:25 pm

    How did you pick Southern Miss for the bid ? Middle Tennessee has the best record going into Sunday and beat Southern Miss head to head in their only meeting ? After today it will be a 3-4 way tie again so are you just using RPI ?

    • Dave Ommen
      March 2, 2014 at 1:37 pm

      In these odd quirky situations with unbalanced schedules, sometimes that’s the most efficient way to do it; so yes.

  23. ruechalgrin
    March 2, 2014 at 4:00 pm

    How are Cal and Tenn. in ahead of Dayton and Providence?

    Looking at RPI, top 50 wins, top 100 wins, road/neutral record, head-to-head = all Dayton ahead of Cal; Cal has one less bad loss than Dayton and a better major win.
    Cal = 51 RPI; 3-9 top 50, 3-0 51-100 (so 6-9 top 100); 12-2 101+; road/neutral 6-8 with best Oregon away 33, then Stanford away 41, then neutral Arkansas 57
    Day = 48 RPI; 3-5 top 50; 4-1 51-100 (so 7-6 top 100); 13-3 101+; road/neutral 8-5 with best Gonzaga neutral 25, then Cal neutral 51, then away Ole Miss 92.

    Same analysis with Tenn and Dayton. Dayton wins top 50 wins, top 100 wins (in percentage, but tied in total); both have 3 bad losses; Dayton 8-5 road/neutral versus 5-8 Tenn. Both have 3 bad losses.

    Could do a similar analysis with Providence.

    • Dave Ommen
      March 2, 2014 at 4:47 pm

      Thanks for your interest. All of your notes help explain in part why these teams are bunched around the cutline. It’s going to be an important two weeks for all of those teams.

  24. Henry Muto
    March 2, 2014 at 6:28 pm

    Just for an FYI if all 4 teams in Conf USA end up tied to end the year at 13-3 the seeding for the C-USA tourney will go like this. Currently they are all tied at 12-3 and this would also be the seeding if the season ended today same as if they all end 13-3 since they don’t play each other again.

    #1 – La Tech
    #2 – Tulsa
    #3 – Middle Tennessee
    #4 – Southern Miss

    The way it breaks down is La-Tech and Tulsa went 2-1 while MT and Southern Miss went 1-2 vs each other. LA-Tech beat Tulsa giving them the #1 and Tulsa #2. MT beat Southern Miss giving MT #3 and leaving Southern Miss with #4.

  25. Henry Muto
    March 8, 2014 at 3:24 pm

    Time to drop Kansas that is their 8th loss no way they get #1 seed now

    • Dave Ommen
      March 9, 2014 at 7:56 am

      Short-term, most likely. Keep in mind, however, Kansas played the game at West Virginia without Joel Embiid. That will be considered; especially if some other teams for that final No. 1 seed slot lose between now and Selection Sunday. Not sure KU will climb back up, but given their overall schedule, it’s not impossible.

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