First in-season Bracket Projection: Kansas at No. 1

No surprise that Kansas starts our bracket projections as the No. 1 overall seed.  The Jayhawks opened preseason discussions in the top spot and have stayed in place.  The remaining No. 1 seeds in our opening look-ahead: Texas, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Only Michigan State (a two-seed now) has changed, and don’t be surprised if the Spartans return to the top line in March.   See the full bracket in Bracketology.

A couple of things to keep in mind … our bracket projections are based on both performance and potential.  Hence, you may see a few teams in the bracket who haven’t started as quickly as anticipated.  We’ll know more as we work through December.  History informs us that young teams often start slow and have to work through a few misteps.  This opening in-season look tries to balance what we’ve learned in the first month, with what we see happening down the road.  There are some teams in the last five out who could easily be included, and vice versa.  You could make an argument for other teams as well.  Hopefully, the number of mid-major at-large candidates will grow.  Our next update is Monday, December 21.  Weekly updates start in January.  You can follow key wins and losses under Team Capsules.  Here’s to a great season … and, as always, send a rebound.

Kentucky moves to No. 3 in Power 24

Fresh off a solid home win over North Carolina, the Kentucky Wildcats move into the No. 3 spot in this week’s Power 24 at Bracketville.  Solid play overall, and the talented ‘Cats will continue to improve.  Say the same for North Carolina, which is definitely the best two-loss team.  A great schedule never hurts a program like Carolina.  The Tar Heels are still our favorite in the Atlantic Coast Conference.   As for the Top 5, it goes like this … Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Villanova.  The rest of this week’s Top 10 … Michigan State, Purdue, Duke, West Virginia, and Syracuse.  See the entire field in Power 24.  Who’s new this week? … Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Mississippi and Kansas State.

Remember, the Power 24 isn’t the same as a poll.  We base the rankings on both performance and potential.   As we learn more, potential is easier to evaluate.  There are some early fluctuations, but we don’t drop a team like Carolina out of the Top 10 just because they’ve lost twice.  Have a different opinion?  Send a rebound.  You can also follow Bracketville on Twitter.

Note to Big Ten: Send thanks to Illinois, Wisconsin …

As teams in the Big Ten Conference celebrate their first-ever ACC-Big 10 Challenge title (it took, ironically, 11 tries), the league might want to consider sending quick thank-you notes to Illinois and Wisconsin.  For starters, the young Illini – fresh off two stumbles in Las Vegas – rallied from 23 points down on the road in the second half to nip Clemson.  It’s especially interesting given that Illinois gave up a 16-point halftime lead in Vegas to Utah.  For seconds, the Badgers – picked 9th in the Big Ten – upset Duke at home.  The Kohl Center is a tough venue for anyone, but remember that until Wednesday night, the Blue Devils had never lost a game in the series.  If you had tried to predict games – which we did – it would have been difficult to suggest that both Illinois and Wisconsin would claim victories given location and opponent.

In other quick notes … Michigan continues to struggle.  The Wolverines should have handled Boston College at home.  Minnesota is also hurting – both on and off the court.  Miami is performing better than expected.  Carolina will be tough if they continue to get good guard play.  Duke is still looking for a consistent inside presence. Ohio State will compete with Michigan State and Purdue.  The jury is still out on Florida State.  Same for Maryland, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.  Maybe even for Penn State.  A weekend look-ahead on Friday.  As always, send a Rebound.

Hoops Marathon: Early-season Madness

It’s not March, but it had that feel.  Games all day and all night.  Credit ESPN with the idea and execution for a 24-hour hoops marathon.   Madness, you ask?  Well, the event tipped off at midnight and promptly rewarded those willing and able to watch with a double-overtime upset at Pauley Pavillion: Cal-State Fullerton 68, UCLA 65.  Next in line …. St. Mary’s dominated San Diego State 80-58.   Mark those down as potentially noteworthy wins for the Big West and West Coast Conferences.

Best for Last …

What a way to finish 24 hours of hoops!  Michigan State and Gonzaga traded blows as the Spartans won their 41st straight non-conference game at the Breslin Center, 75-71.  The Zags – who led much of the game – presented a stronger-than-expected challenge and showed why they’re favored to win the West Coast Conference again – and likely earn a seed in the top half of the bracket come March.  Meanwhile, the cupboard certainly isn’t bare at Memphis.  The Tigers took Kansas to the wire in St. Louis, missing a late 3-pointer.  KU did help Memphis a bit with 21 turnovers.  We can never read too much into November games, but here’s a takeaway: Don’t be surprised if Memphis challenges Tulsa in Conference USA and the league earns two bids to the Dance.

Afternoon | Evening observations …

Good win posted by Siena (59-53 over Northeastern).  Not spectacular, but one that won’t reflect negatively on the Saints in February or March … Georgetown escaped Temple 46-45 in what can only be described as something Big 10ish from last season.  A win’s a win, but the Hoyas still have plenty of work to do if they are going to bounce back as everyone expects.  Heard Doug Gottlieb of ESPN say he thinks G’Town may be running short on recruiting talent because of the Princeton-style offense run by John Thompson III.  Hard to say.  This same system took the Hoyas to the Final 4 in 2007 … Louisville played sloppy at times but has a lot of talent and potential.  They blew past a depleted Arkansas team 96-66 in St. Louis.  The Cards need to create a hectic pace.  Hofstra showed why the Pride figure to challenge in the Colonial, fighting Connecticut until the final moments.

ATR: Upsets welcome Bulldogs, Beavers …

Around the Rim (ATR) … this wasn’t the way Mississippi State or Oregon State imagined their season openers: Rider rode into Starkville on Friday night (the 13th no less) and rode out with an 88-74 upset of Top 25-ranked Mississippi State.  Meanwhile on the islands - actually the Duel in the Desert – the Islanders of Texas A&M CC stuck a few cactus needles in the Beavers and beat OSU 67-43.   Wake-up call anyone?  Remember, Syracuse lost a preseason home game to Le Moyne (Division II) and has since breezed past Albany and Robert Morris.

The good news?  It’s a long season.  Every team hits its bumps and takes its lumps.  Much better to be in November than February.  Consider too that Rider is a member of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) – the same league as Siena and Niagara: two teams easily capable of making the NCAAs.  Siena is the favorite and anyone who watched the Saints last March knows how dangerous they’ll be again.  They are a projected 8-seed in our preseason bracket.  The bad news?  Oregon State plays a suspect non-conference schedule.  Other than Texas Tech, there’s little substance before the Pac-10 opener at Washington on December 31.  How the Beavers perform in league play will ultimately determine their NCAA hopes.  But they don’t want to make a habit of acquiring questionable losses – particularly by 24 points.   Then again, maybe TAM-CC will be the next Cinderella.

Thoughts from opening Friday … Seton Hall needed a 28-foot three-pointer from Eugene Harvey at the buzzer to overtake St. Peters 53-51.  Pittsburgh survived Wofford 63-60 and Pac-10 favorite Washington nipped Wright State 74-69.  By the way, the Wright State Raiders are solid and should challenge Butler in the Horizon League.  BU is the heavy favorite, but WSU won’t go away quietly and an upset in the league tourney could easily open the door for the Horizon to put two teams in the Field of 65 again.   Some NCAA heavyweights start bumping into each other next week.   More to come then.   Remember to check the Schedule page for noteworthy games.  As always, send a rebound.