ATR: Carolina-Cats, bracket news, and reality checks

Around the Rim (ATR) … Our first in-season bracket projection will be posted on December 7.  As a reminder, we don’t build projections based solely on if the season ended at projection time.  Bracket projects are based on performance and potential.  Early projections are weighted more on potential; later brackets more on performance.

Games of the weekend: North Carolina at Kentucky is the headliner.  In a Bracketville preseason poll, the Wildcats were solid favorites to win the NCAA title.  So this is an early chance for UK to reinforce its status.  So far the ‘Cats have been a bit shaky; note the early squeekers with Miami-OH and Stanford.  Then again, remember how different Carolina looked against Syracuse and Michigan State?  If I were making a pick, Carolina wins a close one at Rupp.  Other games of note:

• Kansas @ UCLA – Do the Bruins have any fight left?
• Arizona @ Oklahoma – These could end up being two bubble teams; especially surprising for the Sooners.
• Villanova @ Maryland – The Terrapins have managed to miss on most of their early opportunities.
• Miami @ Boston College – An ACC game in early December?  Yes.  Winner gets a leg-up.
• Washington State @ Kansas State – Which of these teams will compete for the NCAAs?
• Iowa State @ California – Bears really need to put something noticeable in the win column.
• St. John’s @ Duke – Red Storm looks for some cred.
• Penn State @ Temple – This one would benefit the Owls more.
• St. Mary’s @ Utah State – If it were February, we’d call this a BracketBuster game.

Ten observations from November …

The turkey’s just about digested.  So is a weekend of football … and college hoops.  This opening month we’ve seen Jams, Invitationals, Tip-Off’s and Classics.  We’ve seen some great finishes, surprise blowouts, even a little feel of March Madness.  But what’s it all mean?  To members of the NCAA Selection Committee, every game counts.  Wins in November count as much as those in February.  What’s harder to gauge is how early performance will predict later success.   In 2001, Ball State sent shock waves through Maui before losing to Duke in the final … yet the Cardinals missed the NCAAs and finished well off the pace in the Mid-American Conference.  Last year, who would have guessed that Georgetown would be in the NIT after opening Big East play with a win at Connecticut?  Early is early.  But here are 10 observations from November …

Power 24 welcomes four new members …

Before getting all worked up, remember that our Power 24 isn’t like a typical poll.  One loss – or one win – does not necessarily change a team’s overall outlook.  To date, performance data is shallow.   Some teams have played good competition,  some haven’t.  Case-in-point: Kentucky’s best win is Stanford and they almost lost at home to Miami-Ohio; does that mean the Wildcats aren’t a top-flight team?  That’s one reason why the Top 5 teams for November 30 haven’t changed … Kansas, Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, and Villanova. 

We do welcome four new members: Florida (13), Texas A&M (18), Florida State (20), and Cincinnati (22).  Butler and Louisville are two of the teams slipping aside for now.  Arguably, and least one will be back in the Power 24 come January.  Check it out and let me know what you think.  Rebounds are always welcome.

ACC / Big 10 Challenge: Who wins?

Maybe this is normal.  There sure has been great interest in the 2009 ACC/Big 10 Challenge.  So the question is, who wins?  Before you answer, consider that the Big 10 has never won this event.  There are 11 games and the ACC has managed to win at least six every year since the series began.  Is 2009 different?  I’d have to say … yes.

Here is a matchup of each pairing and who has the EDGE:

• Virginia @ Penn State  |  EDGE: Penn State (slight)
• Maryland @ Indiana    |  EDGE: Maryland (moderate)
• Michigan State @ North Carolina  |  EDGE: Michigan State (slight)
• Northwestern @ NC State  |  EDGE: NC State (slight)
• Virginia Tech @ Iowa  | EDGE: Va. Tech (slight)
• Wake Forest @ Purdue  |  EDGE: Purdue (moderate)
• Boston College @ Michigan  |  EDGE: Michigan (moderate)
• Duke @ Wisconsin  |  EDGE: Duke (moderate)
• Florida State @ Ohio State  |  EDGE:  Ohio State (moderate)
• Illinois @ Clemson  |  EDGE: Clemson (slight)
• Minnesota @ Miami-FL  |  EDGE:  Minnesota (slight)

Syracuse vaults to No. 11 in Power 24

The latest Power 24 is now updated here at Bracketville.  Welcome to the Syracuse Orangemen who vault to No. 11 after a stellar run through Madison Square Garden – beating Ohio State and North Carolina.  We also welcome Gonzaga (No. 21) after a tough showing in East Lansing.  This week, they’re in Maui.  Not a lot of changes at the top … Kansas remains No. 1, followed by Michigan State and Texas.  The two teams just missing this week: Mississippi State (after losing at home to Rider – and some overall uncertainty) and Oklahoma (losing at VCU).   As a side note, UNC falls only a little – to No. 7.  As the new guards learn how to take advantage of Carolina’s front line, look for the Heels to be a force.  Let’s  don’t overreact to a single win or loss.

Obviously, the Power 24 becomes more accurate as the season progresses.  There will also be less manuevering.  Check back for weekly updates.  And as always, send a rebound!