UK a potential No. 1 seed again in 2013

As Big Blue Nation continues to celebrate its eighth NCAA Men’s Division I Championship, it’s certainly possible that UK will be a No. 1 seed again next March – depending on how many current Wildcats return.  Even with some expected departures, coach John Calipari is bringing another Top 5 recruiting class to Lexington.  So let’s go ahead and write in UK as a No. 1 seed in our very early look at the 2013 bracket.

A lot will change over the next week or so as players decide whether to enter the NBA Draft.  In the months ahead we’ll also see how the final recruiting pieces fit together.  As of today, Indiana, Louisville, and Kansas join Kentucky as projected No. 1 seeds.  Ohio State, Baylor, Michigan, and Florida are next in line.

This far in advance the bracket is guess work – based on returning players, some realistic expectations, and a few potential surprises.  We also have several teams changing conference affiliation in 2012-13.  Notable teams include Missouri and Texas AM moving from the Big 12 to the SEC.  Oral Roberts moves to the Southland and Belmont to the Ohio Valley.  We’ll take a look at these and other changes in more depth at a later date.

Expect Butler to return to March Madness next spring.  Maryland makes the early bracket, too, as does Pittsburgh.  And John Groce has the pieces to give the Illini a chance.  Even Bruce Weber should return – with Kansas State.  All in all, a lot of fun.  November isn’t too far away.

The Madness begins: Who wins in New Orleans?

The bracket projections ended Sunday night.  Now it’s time for actual NCAA tournament game projections. In this case,  missing only two (games) would be, well, unbelievable.  And no, I don’t expect that to happen.   For better or worse, here are some thoughts and picks for the 2012 NCAA tournament – including a rematch between Kentucky and Duke in the Regional Final.

SOUTH REGION

Favorite: Kentucky.  The Wildcats enter March Madness as the No. 1 overall seed.

Dark Horse: Connecticut.  Back in November, the Huskies were a projected Top 10 team.  They haven’t played at that level very often, but the talent is certainly in place.

Best chances for an upset: Xavier over Notre Dame.  South Dakota State over Baylor.  Notre Dame shot the ball well during its mid-season run, but that hasn’t been the case down the stretch.  Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons are more than capable of taking out the Irish.  South Dakota State went to Washington – the Pac-10 regular season champ – and dismantled the Huskies.  While Baylor should win, the Bears aren’t always the best at closing out games.

Final Bracket Projection review: How did we do?

Now that the actual brackets have been revealed, how did we fare in 2012?

Given the size and scope of this year’s bubble, I anticipated missing a couple.  Which is exactly where we ended – correctly selecting 35 of the 37 at-large teams and 66 of 68 overall.  Those I missed: BYU and Iona.  Our final bracket projection had Seton Hall and Drexel in the Field of 68.

The men and women on this year’s Selection Committee had many difficult choices to make, and the final selections could have easily varied.  Oral Roberts and Middle Tennessee State were two other mid-majors under serious consideration.  Drexel’s non-conference schedule ultimately doomed the Dragons.  Given that two of Drexel’s “bad” losses came when Chris Fouch was injured – and two more losses occurred in the first two games he was back – I thought the Dragons’ 19-game winning streak might be enough to push them into the field.   Nothing wrong with the BYU choice.  They were ultimately bumped from our final bracket projection when St. Bonaventure won the A-10 tournament. 

When it came to seeding the field, we had 35 teams on their correct seed line and another 24 within one of their actual seed.  That’s a total of 59 teams either on their correct seed line or within one.  Not our best outcome, but still solid.  We had seven teams that were two seed lines off, and we missed two (mentioned above).  That gave us a Paymon Score at The Bracket Project of 327 – which is still our highest since moving online in 2009.  Before the 2011-2012 season began, Bracketville ranked first among bracketologists.  We’ll see where we stand after this year’s results are finalized.

Most of all, I would like to thank everyone who took time to participate, visit Bracketville, and join in the fun of the NCAA tournament selection process.  I also want to thank Mike Miller and the team at NBCSports.com for their continued partnership and support.  I learned a lot at the NCAA Mock selection process and hopefully passed along some information that you found helpful.  Debating teams and resumes is all part of the fun.  Enjoy March Madness – it’s the best three weeks of the year.  I’ll have some thoughts about the First Four games and the overall bracket coming soon.

Final Bracket: Countdown to the Madness

Regardless of how the final selections come together tonight, the Selection Committee has completed a monumental task.  There has rarely been a field this diverse and a bubble this large.  We could see a variety of outcomes, and none of them will necessarily be wrong or right – or for that matter surprising.  That’s the truth about this year’s bubble.

What we know – or anticipate – is that Kentucky will be the No. 1 overall seed.  Syracuse will be second.  After that, there remains some questions.  We have Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina and Michigan State on the top line.  That could switch pending the outcome of the Michigan State/Ohio State game in the actual selection room.

FINAL 2012 BRACKET PROJECTION - Bracketology

Take your pick out of the at-large teams.  There were roughly 14 teams about 6 spots.  You could make cases for or against any number of them.  None of the profiles were particularly good.  Ultimately, a win or here or there will be the difference.  There were also plenty of injuries for which to account, on many teams.

Enjoy the Selection Show.  March Madness is here.

Inside the Bracket: No. 1 seed scenarios …

It’s Selection Sunday.  Here are the No. 1 seed scenarios:

Kentucky will be the No. 1 overall seed.  The only question – for weeks now, really – is whether the Wildcats will be in the South or Midwest.  Geographically, St. Louis (Midwest) is a few miles closer, but it’s a small enough margin not to matter much.  The South is UK’s more natural region.  This is where North Carolina comes into play. Winning the outright ACC title and reaching the ACC tournament final means the Tar Heels should be the third No. 1 seed.  UNC is an obvious fit for the South Region.

Here are the other considerations:  If the committee has decided that the Michigan State – Ohio State winner today (Big Ten championship) will be a No. 1 seed, this affects the bracket.  Either MSU or OSU will be No. 4 on the s-curve and be fourth in the Region pecking order – meaning a trip West.  If, however, the committee has decided that Kansas/Missouri will be the fourth No. 1 seed regardless of the Big Ten outcome, then MSU or OSU will be two seeds.  In this case, one of Missouri/Kansas will be West and one will be in the St. Louis location.  The committee can balance the regions with the three or four seeds.

How will it shake out?

Missouri’s weak non-conference strength-of-schedule (No. 294 at collegerpi.com) will probably keep the Tigers as a two-seed.  Kansas, the Big 12 regular season champ, lost to Baylor in the Big 12 semifinals.  Normally, not a big deal.  But both Michigan State and Ohio State have been projected as top seeds this season – and the Big Ten is a deeper league overall.

Will the starting time of the Big Ten title game be a factor?  We may not know until 5:30 (or after) today whether Michigan State or Ohio State wins.  From a bracketing standpoint, this isn’t a huge deal as both are from the same conference.  It becomes an either-or scenario, and the winner is just plugged into the appropriate slot.

Here’s our take in order: Kentucky (Midwest), Syracuse (East), North Carolina (South), Michigan State/Ohio State (West).  The two line: Kansas (West), Missouri (Midwest), Michigan State/Ohio State (South), Duke (East).

Enjoy Selection Sunday.  Our final bracket projection will be posted later this afternoon.  Then the debate ends and the Madness begins.