ATR: Carolina-Cats, bracket news, and reality checks

Around the Rim (ATR) … Our first in-season bracket projection will be posted on December 7.  As a reminder, we don’t build projections based solely on if the season ended at projection time.  Bracket projects are based on performance and potential.  Early projections are weighted more on potential; later brackets more on performance.

Games of the weekend: North Carolina at Kentucky is the headliner.  In a Bracketville preseason poll, the Wildcats were solid favorites to win the NCAA title.  So this is an early chance for UK to reinforce its status.  So far the ‘Cats have been a bit shaky; note the early squeekers with Miami-OH and Stanford.  Then again, remember how different Carolina looked against Syracuse and Michigan State?  If I were making a pick, Carolina wins a close one at Rupp.  Other games of note:

• Kansas @ UCLA – Do the Bruins have any fight left?
• Arizona @ Oklahoma – These could end up being two bubble teams; especially surprising for the Sooners.
• Villanova @ Maryland – The Terrapins have managed to miss on most of their early opportunities.
• Miami @ Boston College – An ACC game in early December?  Yes.  Winner gets a leg-up.
• Washington State @ Kansas State – Which of these teams will compete for the NCAAs?
• Iowa State @ California – Bears really need to put something noticeable in the win column.
• St. John’s @ Duke – Red Storm looks for some cred.
• Penn State @ Temple – This one would benefit the Owls more.
• St. Mary’s @ Utah State – If it were February, we’d call this a BracketBuster game.

Note to Big Ten: Send thanks to Illinois, Wisconsin …

As teams in the Big Ten Conference celebrate their first-ever ACC-Big 10 Challenge title (it took, ironically, 11 tries), the league might want to consider sending quick thank-you notes to Illinois and Wisconsin.  For starters, the young Illini – fresh off two stumbles in Las Vegas – rallied from 23 points down on the road in the second half to nip Clemson.  It’s especially interesting given that Illinois gave up a 16-point halftime lead in Vegas to Utah.  For seconds, the Badgers – picked 9th in the Big Ten – upset Duke at home.  The Kohl Center is a tough venue for anyone, but remember that until Wednesday night, the Blue Devils had never lost a game in the series.  If you had tried to predict games – which we did – it would have been difficult to suggest that both Illinois and Wisconsin would claim victories given location and opponent.

In other quick notes … Michigan continues to struggle.  The Wolverines should have handled Boston College at home.  Minnesota is also hurting – both on and off the court.  Miami is performing better than expected.  Carolina will be tough if they continue to get good guard play.  Duke is still looking for a consistent inside presence. Ohio State will compete with Michigan State and Purdue.  The jury is still out on Florida State.  Same for Maryland, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.  Maybe even for Penn State.  A weekend look-ahead on Friday.  As always, send a Rebound.

Ten observations from November …

The turkey’s just about digested.  So is a weekend of football … and college hoops.  This opening month we’ve seen Jams, Invitationals, Tip-Off’s and Classics.  We’ve seen some great finishes, surprise blowouts, even a little feel of March Madness.  But what’s it all mean?  To members of the NCAA Selection Committee, every game counts.  Wins in November count as much as those in February.  What’s harder to gauge is how early performance will predict later success.   In 2001, Ball State sent shock waves through Maui before losing to Duke in the final … yet the Cardinals missed the NCAAs and finished well off the pace in the Mid-American Conference.  Last year, who would have guessed that Georgetown would be in the NIT after opening Big East play with a win at Connecticut?  Early is early.  But here are 10 observations from November …

Power 24 welcomes four new members …

Before getting all worked up, remember that our Power 24 isn’t like a typical poll.  One loss – or one win – does not necessarily change a team’s overall outlook.  To date, performance data is shallow.   Some teams have played good competition,  some haven’t.  Case-in-point: Kentucky’s best win is Stanford and they almost lost at home to Miami-Ohio; does that mean the Wildcats aren’t a top-flight team?  That’s one reason why the Top 5 teams for November 30 haven’t changed … Kansas, Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, and Villanova. 

We do welcome four new members: Florida (13), Texas A&M (18), Florida State (20), and Cincinnati (22).  Butler and Louisville are two of the teams slipping aside for now.  Arguably, and least one will be back in the Power 24 come January.  Check it out and let me know what you think.  Rebounds are always welcome.

Bracketville joins Twitter …

Sometimes, you just have to jump in and try.  Although not an early adopter, I’ve decided to add a Twitter account to the Bracketville lineup.  If nothing else, I need to learn how the use the technology.  And hey, there’s always room for a little fun.  We’ll see how it goes.  You can find recent “tweets” in the right-hand column.  There’s also a link to my Twitter page under the Links section.  You can find me at http://twitter.com/BracketguyDave.  A new Power 24 will be out Monday evening.  Some meaningful basketball games ahead on Sunday night.  Regular life returns on Monday.  What a weekend!  I hope you had a great Thanksgiving.   Some quick thoughts from the Holiday tournaments will arrive soon – what do they potentially mean down the road?  Plus, what a start for the West Coast Conference.  As always, send a Rebound.