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Bracket Bits: Numbers and No. 1 seeds

January 29, 2010 Leave a comment

BRACKET BITS

Significant conference battles headline a strong weekend of college hoops.  Vanderbilt visits Kentucky (with Vandy leading the SEC) and Kansas visits Kansas State.  Don’t forget about the Ivy League tussle between Cornell and Harvard.  Outside conference lines, Duke travels to Georgetown.  You can see the full slate of meaningful games on our Schedule page.

Our next bracket projection arrives Monday, February 1.   Too early to look closer at potential No. 1 seeds?  Uh, no.  For now, we’ll stick to eight (8) teams.  Odds are at least six will remain in the conversation a month from now during the final push toward Selection Sunday.  The goal is to make some simple comparisons about the relative strength(s) of each team’s profile.  Data is for games through Wednesday, January 28.  As always, we give credit to CollegeRPI.com for the data.  Top 50 and Top 100 refer to RPI rankings at the time of release.

  • Syracuse  |  4-1 vs. Top 50  |  12-1 vs. Top 100  | SOS: 4 | Road: 4-0
  • Villanova |  5-1 vs. Top 50  | 9-1 vs. Top 100  | SOS: 41 | Road: 6-1
  • Kansas  |  6-1 vs. Top 50  |  8-1 vs. Top 100  |  SOS: 15  | Road: 4-1
  • Kentucky |  2-0 vs. Top 50  |  5-1 vs. Top 100  | SOS: 82  | Road: 3-1
  • Texas |  4-2 vs. Top 50  |  7-2 vs. Top 100  |  SOS: 51  | Road: 3-2
  • Michigan State |  2-1 vs. Top 50  |  7-3 vs. Top 100  | SOS: 48  |  Road: 5-2
  • Duke  |  7-2 vs. Top 50  | 10-3 vs. Top 100  |  SOS: 7  | Road: 1-3
  • Kansas State  |  6-3 vs. Top 50  |  9-3 vs. Top 100  |  SOS: 5  | Road: 3-1

As the Selection Committee evaluates teams, numbers are just part of the equation.  Conference titles carry weight.  Individual perceptions of each team vary (by Committee member).  For some, schedule strength is an important factor.  For others, a dominating overall record.  Others look at the number of “quality” wins vs. the RPI and other rankings.  Some value consistency throughout the season.  Based on figures above, Kentucky has the fewest quality wins and lowest strength of schedule.  Syracuse and Duke have the most quality wins; but the Blue Devils are weaker away from home.  With a lot of basketball remaining, this picture will become clearer.

Other teams that could sneak into the conversation?  West Virginia is probably the best bet given the strength of the Big East schedule.  Georgetown perhaps.  It would take a lot more work for teams like Purdue.  If you’re wondering about a team like BYU, the Cougars just didn’t play a strong enough non-conference schedule (ranked No. 200).  As good as the Mountain West is BYU will probably top out as a No. 4 seed (perhaps a No. 3 if they win out).  Enjoy the games … rebounds are always welcome.

 

Categories: Current Updates, Team News

Bracket update: Nothing happens in a vacuum

January 11, 2010 Leave a comment

Welcome to Bracketville

Whether its early January or early March, remember one thing when it comes to bracket projections:  Nothing happens in a vacuum.  Sometimes team lose ground when they win and sometimes they gain ground when they lose.  Odd, but true.  Take for example, Purdue.  The Boilermakers actually jumped two spots on the S-Curve (No. 5) despite a loss at Wisconsin.  Why?  For one, almost no one wins at the Kohl Center – so close is good.  Second, Tennessee put on quite a show for the home folks in Knoxville, handing Kansas its first loss.  Back in November, Purdue edged Tennessee at the Paradise Jam.  Outcomes and outlooks change for all three teams – perhaps others. 

The NCAA men’s basketball season didn’t end on Sunday.  That’s why we try to base projections on both where teams stand today and where we anticipate they might be next week and next month (either bracket projection method is fun; just a bit different).  Washington is a good example.  The Huskies are a good team, but would lack an NCAA profile if today were Selection Sunday.  As down as the Pac-10 is, it’s hard to imagine a BCS league earning just one bid.  Until we know whether such a train-wreck would actually occur, Washington still projects as the best bet to make a run (behind California).  As we progress through conference play, however, a losing league record is much less acceptable.

Mountain West and the BYU factor … Take your pick of New Mexico, UNLV, and BYU.  All three should contend – with San Diego State on the fringe.  Who emerges as champ is anyone’s guess at this point.  Thus, the three are bunched very close in today’s bracket.  The BYU factor?  Because the Cougars can only be assigned to Thursday-Saturday sites and regions, they bump down a line (from a true 7 seed to an 8).  This happens during bracketing for a variety of reasons.  Only six spots separate the three on the S-Curve.   Several other teams also moved one seed line this week – see the Notes on the Bracket. Read more…

Categories: Current Updates

Around the Hoop: Illini, Hoyas make some noise

December 31, 2008 Leave a comment

What a way to open the Big 10 and Big East – the RPI’s No. 2 and No. 3 conferences (the ACC is currently No. 1). 

Monday, Georgetown goes to Connecticut and posts a convincing 74-63 victory.  Tuesday, a rebuilding Illinois team see five players reach double figures en route to an overtime upset of preseason league favorite Purdue, 71-67.  When you talk about “road wins,” these will resonate throughout the year.  Still, we won’t know the true value for another month.  Why?  Well, the Hoyas host Pittsburgh on Saturday and then travel to Notre Dame.  The Hoyas could be a very impressive 3-0 by this time next week, or be 1-2 in the Big East and have nothing bad of note.  For the Illini, they visit Ann Arbor Sunday to battle Michigan – which has beaten UCLA and Duke. Read more…

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