Kentucky grabs overall No. 1 seed in first bracket projection

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While there are several surprises in our first bracket projection of the 2011-2012 season, there’s no surprise about which team is the overall No. 1 seed: Kentucky.  Fresh off a thrilling victory over North Carolina on Saturday, the Wildcats take their place as the top seed in the South – going to Atlanta.  The remaining No. 1 seeds are Ohio State, Syracuse and Duke.  One could easily make the case for North Carolina to stay on the one-line based on talent and expectations.  No one will be surprised to see the Tar Heels in New Orleans.  For today, however, Duke’s overall resume is superior and Carolina has lost two games.  Let’s just remember, it’s very early.

DECEMBER 5 – BRACKET PROJECTION

DECEMBER 5 – POWER 24

The rest of the bracket is quite interesting.  Several major conference teams have been less than stellar through the first month of the season.  That’s opened the door for the mid majors and today’s bracket reflects some quality non-conference work by teams from the Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, Conference USA, and Missouri Valley.  All have multiple teams in the field.

We’ve played a little less than a quarter of the season.  There are certain to be a lot of changes in the coming weeks.  The journey to Selection Sunday is here again – let’s enjoy the ride.  More to come soon.

UNC, UK headline Preseason Bracket Projection

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March is five months away.  Thousands of college basketball games will be played before Selection Sunday.  Yet two things seem pretty clear in early November.  North Carolina and Kentucky are loaded, and the Tar Heels and Wildcats are heavy favorites to reach the Final Four in New Orleans.  So it’s no surprise that UNC and UK are the top two teams in our preseason bracket projection.

2012 PRESEASON BRACKET PROJECTION

From there, it gets interesting.  Debates rage across the internet and college hoops magazines about the next group of teams.  Defending champion Connecticut returns a host of talent, as does 2011 top seed Ohio State.  Other teams in the early running for No. 1 seeds: Syracuse and Duke.  Florida and Vanderbilt both have the talent to challenge Kentucky in the SEC.  Louisville and Pittsburgh are potential threats to the Orange and Huskies in the Big East.  Memphis has the horses to dominate an improved Conference USA.

There are also plenty of good mid-major programs to watch.  Belmont could be an at-large candidate if it navigates an opportunistic non-conference schedule.  Detroit will test Butler in the Horizon League.  As many as three or four teams could push for bids from the Colonial and Atlantic 10.  Both the Missouri Valley and Mid-American have multiple bid options.  In all, our preseason projection has two teams each from the Colonial, MVC, and Horizon.  Hopefully, we’ll see that – or more – play out next Spring.

Further down the bracket, it’s educated guesswork … Last 5 teams IN: Virginia, Minnesota, Wichita State, Drexel, St. Louis.  First 5 teams OUT:  Notre Dame, BYU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s.  The next group includes Kent State, VCU, Indiana, Old Dominion, and Central Florida.  None of these would be huge surprises.  That’s the beauty of college hoops.  We play the games and what happens on the court matters more than public opinion.

Here’s to a great season.  Let’s enjoy the ride to Selection Sunday.

North Carolina tops 2011-12 Preseason Power 24

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With the start of college hoops season just a week away, it’s no surprise that North Carolina tops our Preseason Power 24 at Bracketville.  Kentucky, Connecticut, and Ohio State are right behind.

One can debate whether UConn or Ohio State should be switched.  Fair-minded people can also discuss North Carolina and Kentucky.  But with a host of experience back, the Tar Heels are early favorites to cut down the nets in New Orleans.  UK, UConn, and Ohio State should challenge, as will a handful of others.  Spots 5-10 look like this … Syracuse, Duke, Memphis, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Louisville.

Cautious optimism is always wise.  If we’ve learned anything the past few years it’s that preseason expectations and on-court performance aren’t always the same.  We’ve also seen talented teams struggle early as they learn to play together.  Because we have no real evidence, preseason rankings are merely a starting point.  Thankfully, come March, what matters is actual results.  Sure, we’ll have our debates about a few teams, but the tournament will be great because we play the games.

I’m excited about another journey toward Selection Sunday.  Thanks for your interest.  Follow along here and at NBC Sports.com.

North Carolina, Kentucky headline off-season Power 24

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With the entry deadline for the 2011 NBA Draft behind us, time for an updated Power 24 here at Bracketville.  The first two selections were pretty easy: North Carolina and Kentucky.  Harrison Barnes and a host of other talented Tar Heels return to Chapel Hill.  UNC came within a game of the Final Four this past March, and Carolina should be an early favorite to cut down the nets in 2012.  Close behind is Kentucky.  Yes, the Wildcats lost Brandon Knight, but Terrence Jones decided to stay and will be joined by yet another top-flight recruiting class.

If you think of the Top 4 teams as potential No. 1 seeds, the remaining slots belong to Syracuse and Ohio State.  The Orange return a host of talent and figure to open play in November as the Big East favorite.  Once Jared Sullinger decided to stay in Columbus, the Buckeyes became the team to beat in the Big Ten – again.

The rest of the Top 10 looks like this … Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, Vanderbilt, Arizona, and Memphis.

Wisconsin opens at No. 11 thanks to Jordan Taylor staying in Madison.  The Badgers are followed by Kansas, Alabama, Michigan and Florida in the Top 15.  Then we find Marquette, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Xavier and Missouri rounding out the Top 20.  The Big East will be good again – but not as strong as this past season.

Our final Power 24 spots go to … Florida State, Texas, Gonzaga, and UCLA.

You could easily make a case for several other teams.  Others considered were Baylor, Texas AM, George Mason, Michigan State, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Temple, Georgetown, Georgia, Colorado, and Butler.  Butler will again be good, but it’ll be hard to replace to replace both Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard.

Inside the Bracket: No. 1 seed contenders …

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Selection Sunday is quickly approaching.  While the bottom of the bracket remains highly volatile, the No. 1 seed contenders are taking shape.  We have four front-runners with eight total teams remain in the hunt.  Keep in mind that a team’s entire body of work is examined by the Selection Committee.  So one good week in early March isn’t justification for a No. 1 seed.  Here’s a look at the contenders …

Ohio State - The Buckeyes are a lock.  OSU could potentially lose its spot in the East Region, but I can’t imagine a scenario in which the Buckeyes fall off the top line.  OSU’s only two losses are at Wisconsin and at Purdue – both are in line for top-three seeds.  The Buckeyes are 15-2 vs. the RPI Top 100 and beat Florida and Florida State on the road.

Pittsburgh - The Panthers lead the Big East and have been very consistent throughout the season.  Pitt also has a non-conference victory over Texas on its resume and six Top 25 RPI wins.  While not yet a lock, the Panthers control their path to a top seed in the East or Southeast.  They may not have to win the Big East Tournament title, but they do need to avoid back-to-back losses to end the season.   Their worst loss is Tennessee (neutral court).

Kansas - Kansas sits at No. 1 in the RPI (for what that’s worth) and has 17 wins vs. Top 100 teams – best in the nation.  The Jayhawks also own the inside track to a Big 12 regular-season title.  Why is Kansas not a lock?  Only because there is the potential to be bumped should they lose a couple of games this next week and other teams below them excel.  Kansas’ losses are to Texas at home and Kansas State on the road.

Duke – The Blue Devils close their regular season at North Carolina.  A victory would give them the outright ACC title.  A loss would leave Duke tied with Carolina pending the ACC Tournament.  While Duke’s overall body of work is better to this point, if the Blue Devils were to lose twice to UNC in the next week, their odds to stay on the top line would certainly diminish.  Duke is 14-3 vs. the Top 100.  It’s best non-conference wins are Kansas State and Temple.