Inside the Bracket: Teams (names) behind the numbers …

It’s always an interesting exercise when you take a team’s name away from its numbers.   To demonstrate, let’s look at some numbers used by the NCAA Selection Committee to select and seed teams for the tournament.  We’ll refer to them as Team A, etc. during the first part of the exercise, and reveal the names at the end of the column.  Data comes from collegerpi.com (through Feb. 7).

Let’s go Inside the Bracket …

Team           Road    RPI 1-50    Top 100    Losses 100+    SOS    NC-SOS   Field wins

Team A         2-5         3-3           6-3             142, 144            48           90             3

Team B         2-3         5-5           7-6                139                20           121            4

Team C         8-3         3-1           5-3                151                94           137            2

Team D         5-2         4-3           6-3                 NA                85            208           4

Team E         3-3         0-4           3-7                 NA                83             94            0

Team F         6-1          3-1           6-2                NA                123          166            2

Team G        3-3          3-4           5-6                 NA                79            226           2

Team H        7-2          2-2           8-3                 NA                35            41             2

We purposely didn’t include overall Division I record (through Feb. 7) or conference record to make it more difficult to identify the teams in question – even though both are important factors.  Field Wins refers to victories over teams currently projected to make the NCAA tournament (from our latest bracket projection).  For simplicity, we didn’t include teams from non-BCS conferences who were in the bracket as automatic qualifiers.  SOS refers to strength of schedule and NC-SOS refers to non-conference strength of schedule.

Using the data above, how would you rank the teams?  Everyone will have a different opinion on which criteria is most important.  That’s why the actual selection process involves a series of confidential voting procedures.  Committee members debate, make arguments, discuss concerns, etc.  Then, it’s put to a vote.  A certain number of votes are needed for teams to move “IN” the bracket or to be placed on a seed line.  I’m looking forward to learning more about the process during the NCAA Mock Selection event next week in Indianapolis.

Are quality wins your most important criteria?  Road record? How do you factor in losses to sub-100 teams?  These are just a few considerations.  Something else to note: take away wins over teams ranked below 200 in the RPI (lower third of Division I).  Sometimes, that gives you a different insight into how well a team’s overall record matches its performance.  We’re not picking on Murray State – an excellent team having a remarkable season. But let’s use the Racers as an example.  If you remove Murray’s 12 wins against teams ranked 200 or lower, the Racers’ D-1 record is 8-0.  That’s why it will be difficult for Murray State to earn a protected seed.

Time to reveal the names behind the numbers.  See if it changes your opinion of how you ranked them …

Team A: Florida … Team B: Illinois … Team C: Creighton … Team D: San Diego State … Team E: Washington … Team F: St. Mary’s … Team G: Kansas State … Team H: Southern Mississippi

The purpose of the exercise isn’t to make you change your mind.  Rather, it’s designed to provide an insight into a team’s evaluation without the potential bias associated with the name on the jersey.  Hopefully, you found the exercise informative.

Inside the Bracket: No. 1 seeds and Quick Takes from Saturday

When a new bracket appears on Monday, Kentucky, Syracuse, and Ohio State will remain as No. 1 seeds.  Yes, Syracuse lost at Notre Dame on Saturday, but the Orange were not headed to the NCAAs with a perfect record.  That’s unrealistic when you play in a Top 10 RPI conference.  It’s more likely that Syracuse will have two or three losses by Selection Sunday.  If that’s the case, SU could/should be a No. 1 seed.  The question:  Which teams are currently in the hunt for the final No. 1 seed?  Data comes from collegerpi.com.

The best candidates right now are Duke and three teams from the Big 12: Missouri, Kansas, and Baylor.  Some people will point at Duke’s home loss to Florida State and discard the Blue Devils.  Just keep in mind that Duke is 4-2 vs. Top 25 RPI teams – including non-conference wins over Michigan State and Kansas. The Blue Devils have also beaten Michigan, Virginia, and Davidson - a team that won at Kansas - and boast the nation’s No. 1 strength-of-schedule.  Duke may or may not be one of the best four teams, but the Blue Devils’ overall resume is still pretty strong.  We’ve seen it before: if Duke wins both an ACC league and/or ACC tournament title, the Blue Devils could again be a top seed.

Missouri boasts an impressive 18-1 record and is coming off a strong road victory at Baylor.  By comparison, the Tigers’ are 2-0 against Top 25 (RPI) teams and 3-1 vs. the Top 50.  Missouri’s best additional wins: Illinois, California, Iowa State, and Texas.  Of those, only Illinois is a confident NCAA pick at this juncture.  As a footnote: Missouri’s non-conference SOS ranks No. 260 – Duke’s non-conference SOS is No. 3

Kansas leads the Big 12 and dominated Baylor in Lawrence.  KU still plays Missouri twice, so that will be a huge factor in the final analysis.  The Jayhawks are 5-3 vs. Top 50 teams and 8-3 vs. the Top 100.  That ties them with Duke (and a few others) for the most Top 100 wins, and is only behind Syracuse (10 Top 100 wins).  KU’s losses are on neutral courts to Duke and Kentucky, plus a home loss to Davidson.  The Jayhawks have wins over Baylor, Ohio State (no Jared Sullinger), Georgetown, and Kansas State.  Those are four tournament level teams.

Baylor had a tough schedule this past week, visiting Kansas and hosting Missouri.  A split (road/home) would have been expected.  Instead, Baylor lost both and is now two-games back of Kansas.  Overall, Baylor is 7-1 away from home and 4-1 in true road games.  Those are strong numbers.  Road wins include Kansas State, Northwestern (by 27), and BYU.  There are questions about Baylor’s ability to win physical games, but the Bears’ resume to date remains impressive.  Their only losses are to teams mentioned here as potential No. 1 seeds.

Inside the Bracket: At-Large picture – Part II

Just in time for Christmas, here’s Part II of the at-large landscape.  This version focuses on teams from the BCS conference along with those from the Mountain West, Conference USA, and Atlantic 10.  As we noted in Part I, conference season begins in full force next week, and a lot of basketball remains.  The goal is to provide a quick peek into the at-large picture ahead of Bubble Banter in February.

It’s too early to lock any teams into the NCAA Tournament.  For the purposes of time and space, however, we’re not going to dwell on the at-large possibilities for teams like Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse, Duke, etc.  If January turns sour, then we’ll catch up on those teams in February.  Let’s go Inside the Bracket:

Kansas State – The Wildcats play Long Beach State on Sunday for the Diamond Head Classic title in Honolulu.  A victory would add LBSU to a win list that includes Alabama and Virgina Tech (road).  K-State lost a neutral court game to West Virginia.  While the rest of the non-conference resume is light, the Wildcats enter Big 12 play in pretty good position.  West Virginia and Virginia Tech are both potential bubble teams, so a split is okay.  The key will be finding victories against Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri and finishing among the top four or five in conference play.  Kansas State opens at rival KU on January 4.  After that, it’s Missouri and Baylor at home.  So the Wildcats can set an NCAA footprint early.

Texas AM – If you take a closer look at the Aggies, one thing becomes apparent: an NCAA bid is in serious jeopardy.  The Aggies non-conference schedule strength (No. 337) is dreadful, and TxAM’s best win is St. John’s.  Furthering the issue is a lopsided loss at Florida and follow-up home loss to Rice.  It will take some serious work in the Big 12 to overcome the Aggies’ start.  That work begins at Baylor on January 2.  Flashback: Colorado (last March).  The Buffaloes won some big games in the Big 12 but were left home on Selection Sunday thanks to a non-conference SOS that mirrors the Aggies’ in 2011-12.

Inside the Bracket: At-large Picture – Part I

Let’s go Inside the Bracket for a look at which non-majors have put themselves in a position to be in the at-large discussion next March.  There is, of course, a lot of basketball yet to be played, so things may look a bit different when we launch Bubble Banter in February.  We’ll call this Stocking Stuffer Part I.  Part II will feature a look at major conference teams that could be on or near the bubble come March.  Note: For this discussion, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and Conference USA teams will be featured in Part II.

At-Large Picture – Part I: Teams to watch …

Murray State  -  The Racers have beaten Southern Mississippi at the Great Alaska Shootout, Dayton at home, and Memphis on the road.  Those were the three biggest challenges on Murray’s non-conference slate.  The victory at Memphis figures to hold the most weight, although the Tigers have not looked much like a Top 20 team this season.  Road Bumps: The Ohio Valley Conference isn’t very strong and will certainly be an anchor to Murray’s RPI and overall strength-of-schedule.  The Racers have also played three non-Division I opponents – two of those scheduled at home.  If Murray can finish its non-conference slate unbeaten, the Racers should be able to absorb a loss or two in the OVC.  Any more than that, plus a loss in the OVC tournament, would make it interesting.  How Southern Miss, Dayton, and Memphis finish the season will also be a factor.

Creighton – The Bluejays’ victory at San Diego State could pay big dividends in March.  Beating Northwestern (Dec. 22) will be important, too.  That would leave Creighton 2-1 against its best non-conference opponents (CU lost at St. Joseph’s).  Given the Bluejays status as Missouri Valley favorite, the outlook for an at-large bid is favorable if the scenario above unfolds.  Road Bumps: Playing on the road in the Valley is never easy, but it will be important for Creighton to avoid “bad losses” along the way.  It will also help if CU separates itself with or above Northern Iowa and Wichita State at the top of the standings.

Northern Iowa – While the Panthers are off to a strong start – including a 4-1 record away from home, they lack a marquee victory.  UNI’s win at Old Dominion was solid but the Panthers followed it up with a double-digit loss at St. Mary’s – another potential bubble team.  The game with Ohio (Dec. 20) figures to be huge for both schools.  Road Bumps: Northern Iowa will need to keep pace – and beat – both Creighton and Wichita State during the Missouri Valley season.  Much like Creighton, UNI will need to avoid “bad losses” to those at the bottom of the league standings.

Inside the Bracket: Take-aways from the Big Ten/ACC

Welcome to Bracketville

The Big Ten won its third straight Big Ten-ACC Challenge.  While that may help the league’s overall perception, teams earn NCAA bids, not conferences.  Here are a few bracket-related observations from this year’s Challenge:

Ohio State is playing like a No. 1 seed.  While the Buckeyes have yet to leave Value City Arena, they dominated Duke by 22 points.  This was the same Duke team which defeated Michigan and Kansas enroute to another Maui title.  The Blue Devils had also compiled wins over Michigan State and Belmont.  When you add in OSU’s victory over Florida on November 15, the Buckeyes begin December with eyes on a No. 1 seed.  A trip to Kansas on December 10 will be OSU’s first true road test.

Indiana could be an NCAA team.  The Hoosiers’ schedule hasn’t featured any heavyweights (yet), but IU has a balanced attack that creates problems for opposing defenses.  Pulling out a tough road win at NC State is a promising sign for a team that didn’t win a single road game last year.  The Hoosiers host Kentucky on December 10.  Beating the Wildcats would likely allow IU to enter Big Ten play without a loss.

So could North Carolina State.  The Wolfpack were supposed to be a year away, but as witnessed against Indiana, NC State has the talent to be an NCAA contender.  They rank 18th in the nation in assists, a great sign of team play, as is a team field goal percentage of .417 - also a Top 50 stat.  With non-conference games at Stanford and vs. Syracuse still on the schedule, the Wolfpack have the chance for a resume-building win ahead of ACC play.

Illinois has found a floor leader.  Bradley tranfer Sam Maniscalco has given the Illini the type of leadership and mental toughness missing the past couple of seasons.  The senior leads Illinois in scoring (13.3 ppg),  FT percentage (88%), and 3-point percentage (41.9).  He scored 24 in a comeback win at Maryland.  There are a lot of new faces in Champaign, and the Illini won’t challenge for a Big Ten title, but there’s no reason to think a Top 6 finish and NCAA bid is out of reach.