Bracket update: Syracuse vaults to No. 1 seed

Syracuse vaults past North Carolina and reaches the top line in our latest bracket projection at Bracketville.  Full bracket projection is listed in Bracketology.  Current No. 1 seeds are ranked in this order … Kansas (Midwest), Texas (South), Kentucky (East), and Syracuse (West).  The Orange are sent West for two reasons … they are the fourth No. 1 seed and cannot be placed in the East because the Regional Finals are at the Carrier Dome.  As for Carolina, the Tar Heels have three losses – all to projected top seeds.  UNC is in the No. 5 spot on the power curve and the No. 2 seed in the West.

Predictably, the bottom of the bracket is tight.  Xavier claims the final at-large spot largely because the Muskateers should still finish among the Atlantic 10 leaders.  A series of big A-10 wins helps everyone.  Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) also takes one of our final at-large spots with the Colonial positioning itself for possible at-large consideration. William & Mary, VCU and Old Dominion have shown well.  Final pre-conference positioning will be key for a number of teams.  Our next update will be January 4 – as weekly projections begin.  An upcoming Bracket Bits column will look back at the weekend and the week ahead.  I’ll also have a holiday breakdown of where teams from leading conference stand as conference play gears up in January.  Have a thought?  Send a rebound.

New Mexico latest to join Power 24

Welcome the Lobos.  Fresh off a win vs. Texas A&M … New Mexico breaks into this week’s Power 24 at Bracketville.  The Lobos have early wins over Cal (home) and the Aggies (neutral court).   Vanderbilt slides out of the rankings after two road losses (@Illinois, @Western Kentucky).  Neither are bad miscues and the Commodores should hover around the cut line much of the season.  Overall, a tough evaluation week – especially at the bottom of the rankings.  We’re still trying to gauge potential while balancing current performance. 

One change in the Top 5: Syracuse moves up to No. 5 after another strong win over Florida.  Spots 1-4 go like this … Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, and North Carolina.  Michigan State, Purdue, Duke, West Virginia, and Villanova round out the Top 10.  View this week’s full rankings.  Have a different opinion?  Send a rebound.

First in-season Bracket Projection: Kansas at No. 1

No surprise that Kansas starts our bracket projections as the No. 1 overall seed.  The Jayhawks opened preseason discussions in the top spot and have stayed in place.  The remaining No. 1 seeds in our opening look-ahead: Texas, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Only Michigan State (a two-seed now) has changed, and don’t be surprised if the Spartans return to the top line in March.   See the full bracket in Bracketology.

A couple of things to keep in mind … our bracket projections are based on both performance and potential.  Hence, you may see a few teams in the bracket who haven’t started as quickly as anticipated.  We’ll know more as we work through December.  History informs us that young teams often start slow and have to work through a few misteps.  This opening in-season look tries to balance what we’ve learned in the first month, with what we see happening down the road.  There are some teams in the last five out who could easily be included, and vice versa.  You could make an argument for other teams as well.  Hopefully, the number of mid-major at-large candidates will grow.  Our next update is Monday, December 21.  Weekly updates start in January.  You can follow key wins and losses under Team Capsules.  Here’s to a great season … and, as always, send a rebound.

Kentucky moves to No. 3 in Power 24

Fresh off a solid home win over North Carolina, the Kentucky Wildcats move into the No. 3 spot in this week’s Power 24 at Bracketville.  Solid play overall, and the talented ‘Cats will continue to improve.  Say the same for North Carolina, which is definitely the best two-loss team.  A great schedule never hurts a program like Carolina.  The Tar Heels are still our favorite in the Atlantic Coast Conference.   As for the Top 5, it goes like this … Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Villanova.  The rest of this week’s Top 10 … Michigan State, Purdue, Duke, West Virginia, and Syracuse.  See the entire field in Power 24.  Who’s new this week? … Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Mississippi and Kansas State.

Remember, the Power 24 isn’t the same as a poll.  We base the rankings on both performance and potential.   As we learn more, potential is easier to evaluate.  There are some early fluctuations, but we don’t drop a team like Carolina out of the Top 10 just because they’ve lost twice.  Have a different opinion?  Send a rebound.  You can also follow Bracketville on Twitter.

ATR: Carolina-Cats, bracket news, and reality checks

Around the Rim (ATR) … Our first in-season bracket projection will be posted on December 7.  As a reminder, we don’t build projections based solely on if the season ended at projection time.  Bracket projects are based on performance and potential.  Early projections are weighted more on potential; later brackets more on performance.

Games of the weekend: North Carolina at Kentucky is the headliner.  In a Bracketville preseason poll, the Wildcats were solid favorites to win the NCAA title.  So this is an early chance for UK to reinforce its status.  So far the ‘Cats have been a bit shaky; note the early squeekers with Miami-OH and Stanford.  Then again, remember how different Carolina looked against Syracuse and Michigan State?  If I were making a pick, Carolina wins a close one at Rupp.  Other games of note: