Countdown to March: KU tops first bracket of 2010

Welcome to Bracketville

A countdown to March Madness: welcome to college hoops once the calendar turns.  Fans and fanatics begin the trek toward Selection Sunday. Is my team “in” or “out’?  What’s my team’s seed?  The first Monday in January is when bracket projecting gets more than a passing glance. 

As you take a look at our January 4 Bracket Projection, keep three things in mind … 1) Teams are selected and seeded based on both current performance and anticipated potential at the time the bracket is done.  The bracket is not based on if the season ended today. For example, Oregon doesn’t receive an automatic bid from the Pac-10 after two games.  Washington is still our projected winner …2) Performance will outweigh potential as the season progresses. … 3) The bracket is very fluid at this point so don’t get too caught up in seeding.  Many resumes look identical; it’s why we use potential to help configure our projections.

Some additional thoughts … USC was being projected as an NCAA team until Sunday’s announcement that the Trojans had self-imposed a post-season ban for the 2010 NCAAs.  Kansas is the overall No. 1 seed – a spot the Jayhawks have held since our preseason projection in November.  The No. 1 seeds on January 4 … Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, and Syracuse.  As for the last five in … St. Mary’s, BYU, Xavier, Virginia Commonwealth (VCU), and Mississippi State.  The first five out … Missouri, Miami-FL, Louisville, Wichita State, Northwestern.

The countdown has begun.  Welcome to everyone who linked from NBC Sports.  What an exciting opportunity.  There’s sure to be plenty of debate and discussion.  As always, please send a rebound.

Weekend Primer: What a kick-off to 2010 …

Welcome to Bracketville

Happy New Year!  For college hoops fans that means conference showdowns, weekly bracket projections, and the chance for teams to enhance or re-build their NCAA resumes.  Here at Bracketville, it also means a new opportunity.  NBC Sports will be linking to Bracketville for its  2010 NCAA Tournament projections.  Thanks to Mike Miller: you can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/BeyndArcMMiller.  I’m excited about the partnership. 

Of course, the games are what really matters.  New Year’s weekend delivers in a big way.  Below is a quick look at some of most important bracket-potential matchups.  You can see all the key games under Schedule (above).

• West Virginia @ Purdue – Both of these teams could be in play for a No. 1 seed.  Both are also unbeaten.
• Gonzaga vs. Illinois – Illini need to add more wins to a questionable pre-conference profile.
• Kansas @ Temple – Host Owls might be the A10’s best; Jayhawks’ first true road game.
• Louisville @ Kentucky – A win at Rupp would erase much of a forgettable December for the Cards.

Bracket Bits: A Holiday look at the NCAA picture

BRACKET BITS

Fresh off a great Christmas with the family.  Hope you had a wonderful day, too.  As the slate of NCAA hoops games is light for the next few days, time for a quick glance at the NCAA picture – particularly some at-large scenarios.  It’s broken down by conference.  If you don’t see a conference listed, assume we expect a single-bid as of this post (Dec. 26, 2009).  Let’s get started …

Atlantic 10 – Dayton is still the favorite; so consider the Flyers an NCAA team.  Temple has put together a solid non-conference profile, followed by Richmond.  Teams in the hunt include: Xavier, Rhode Island, and Charlotte.  Of those, XU, R. Island and Charlotte have the most work to do in-conference.  Our guess is at least three A-10 teams make the field, most likely four.

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) – Despite three early losses (all to Top 5 teams), North Carolina remains our favorite.  Duke, Clemson, and Florida State are solid NCAA teams at this point.  Others in the at-large picture: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Miami-FL.  Maryland, Boston College and NC State all face a heavier workload.

Bracket update: Syracuse vaults to No. 1 seed

Syracuse vaults past North Carolina and reaches the top line in our latest bracket projection at Bracketville.  Full bracket projection is listed in Bracketology.  Current No. 1 seeds are ranked in this order … Kansas (Midwest), Texas (South), Kentucky (East), and Syracuse (West).  The Orange are sent West for two reasons … they are the fourth No. 1 seed and cannot be placed in the East because the Regional Finals are at the Carrier Dome.  As for Carolina, the Tar Heels have three losses – all to projected top seeds.  UNC is in the No. 5 spot on the power curve and the No. 2 seed in the West.

Predictably, the bottom of the bracket is tight.  Xavier claims the final at-large spot largely because the Muskateers should still finish among the Atlantic 10 leaders.  A series of big A-10 wins helps everyone.  Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) also takes one of our final at-large spots with the Colonial positioning itself for possible at-large consideration. William & Mary, VCU and Old Dominion have shown well.  Final pre-conference positioning will be key for a number of teams.  Our next update will be January 4 – as weekly projections begin.  An upcoming Bracket Bits column will look back at the weekend and the week ahead.  I’ll also have a holiday breakdown of where teams from leading conference stand as conference play gears up in January.  Have a thought?  Send a rebound.

First in-season Bracket Projection: Kansas at No. 1

No surprise that Kansas starts our bracket projections as the No. 1 overall seed.  The Jayhawks opened preseason discussions in the top spot and have stayed in place.  The remaining No. 1 seeds in our opening look-ahead: Texas, Kentucky and North Carolina.  Only Michigan State (a two-seed now) has changed, and don’t be surprised if the Spartans return to the top line in March.   See the full bracket in Bracketology.

A couple of things to keep in mind … our bracket projections are based on both performance and potential.  Hence, you may see a few teams in the bracket who haven’t started as quickly as anticipated.  We’ll know more as we work through December.  History informs us that young teams often start slow and have to work through a few misteps.  This opening in-season look tries to balance what we’ve learned in the first month, with what we see happening down the road.  There are some teams in the last five out who could easily be included, and vice versa.  You could make an argument for other teams as well.  Hopefully, the number of mid-major at-large candidates will grow.  Our next update is Monday, December 21.  Weekly updates start in January.  You can follow key wins and losses under Team Capsules.  Here’s to a great season … and, as always, send a rebound.