UK a potential No. 1 seed again in 2013

As Big Blue Nation continues to celebrate its eighth NCAA Men’s Division I Championship, it’s certainly possible that UK will be a No. 1 seed again next March – depending on how many current Wildcats return.  Even with some expected departures, coach John Calipari is bringing another Top 5 recruiting class to Lexington.  So let’s go ahead and write in UK as a No. 1 seed in our very early look at the 2013 bracket.

A lot will change over the next week or so as players decide whether to enter the NBA Draft.  In the months ahead we’ll also see how the final recruiting pieces fit together.  As of today, Indiana, Louisville, and Kansas join Kentucky as projected No. 1 seeds.  Ohio State, Baylor, Michigan, and Florida are next in line.

This far in advance the bracket is guess work – based on returning players, some realistic expectations, and a few potential surprises.  We also have several teams changing conference affiliation in 2012-13.  Notable teams include Missouri and Texas AM moving from the Big 12 to the SEC.  Oral Roberts moves to the Southland and Belmont to the Ohio Valley.  We’ll take a look at these and other changes in more depth at a later date.

Expect Butler to return to March Madness next spring.  Maryland makes the early bracket, too, as does Pittsburgh.  And John Groce has the pieces to give the Illini a chance.  Even Bruce Weber should return – with Kansas State.  All in all, a lot of fun.  November isn’t too far away.

Final Bracket: Countdown to the Madness

Regardless of how the final selections come together tonight, the Selection Committee has completed a monumental task.  There has rarely been a field this diverse and a bubble this large.  We could see a variety of outcomes, and none of them will necessarily be wrong or right – or for that matter surprising.  That’s the truth about this year’s bubble.

What we know – or anticipate – is that Kentucky will be the No. 1 overall seed.  Syracuse will be second.  After that, there remains some questions.  We have Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina and Michigan State on the top line.  That could switch pending the outcome of the Michigan State/Ohio State game in the actual selection room.

FINAL 2012 BRACKET PROJECTION - Bracketology

Take your pick out of the at-large teams.  There were roughly 14 teams about 6 spots.  You could make cases for or against any number of them.  None of the profiles were particularly good.  Ultimately, a win or here or there will be the difference.  There were also plenty of injuries for which to account, on many teams.

Enjoy the Selection Show.  March Madness is here.

Inside the Bracket: No. 1 seed scenarios …

It’s Selection Sunday.  Here are the No. 1 seed scenarios:

Kentucky will be the No. 1 overall seed.  The only question – for weeks now, really – is whether the Wildcats will be in the South or Midwest.  Geographically, St. Louis (Midwest) is a few miles closer, but it’s a small enough margin not to matter much.  The South is UK’s more natural region.  This is where North Carolina comes into play. Winning the outright ACC title and reaching the ACC tournament final means the Tar Heels should be the third No. 1 seed.  UNC is an obvious fit for the South Region.

Here are the other considerations:  If the committee has decided that the Michigan State – Ohio State winner today (Big Ten championship) will be a No. 1 seed, this affects the bracket.  Either MSU or OSU will be No. 4 on the s-curve and be fourth in the Region pecking order – meaning a trip West.  If, however, the committee has decided that Kansas/Missouri will be the fourth No. 1 seed regardless of the Big Ten outcome, then MSU or OSU will be two seeds.  In this case, one of Missouri/Kansas will be West and one will be in the St. Louis location.  The committee can balance the regions with the three or four seeds.

How will it shake out?

Missouri’s weak non-conference strength-of-schedule (No. 294 at collegerpi.com) will probably keep the Tigers as a two-seed.  Kansas, the Big 12 regular season champ, lost to Baylor in the Big 12 semifinals.  Normally, not a big deal.  But both Michigan State and Ohio State have been projected as top seeds this season – and the Big Ten is a deeper league overall.

Will the starting time of the Big Ten title game be a factor?  We may not know until 5:30 (or after) today whether Michigan State or Ohio State wins.  From a bracketing standpoint, this isn’t a huge deal as both are from the same conference.  It becomes an either-or scenario, and the winner is just plugged into the appropriate slot.

Here’s our take in order: Kentucky (Midwest), Syracuse (East), North Carolina (South), Michigan State/Ohio State (West).  The two line: Kansas (West), Missouri (Midwest), Michigan State/Ohio State (South), Duke (East).

Enjoy Selection Sunday.  Our final bracket projection will be posted later this afternoon.  Then the debate ends and the Madness begins.

March 8 bracket: First Four spots up for grabs

Four days and counting until Selection Sunday: time for an updated look at the bracket.

After losing to Louisville on Wednesday, Seton Hall joins Drexel, Iona, Oral Roberts, and Middle Tennessee State as nervous at-large hopefuls.  West Virginia is in that group, too, but is a little more secure heading into action on Thursday and Friday.  Connecticut helped its case by beating the Mountaineers.  With 10 Top 100 RPI wins, it’s looking more and more likely that the Huskies will be able to defend their NCAA title.  South Florida kept its at-large hopes alive by beating Villanova.  USF matches up with Notre Dame tonight (Thursday).

March 8 Bracket Projection – Bracketology

Not a lot has changed since Monday’s bracket.  Seton Hall remains in the field as a First Four participant in Dayton.  They are matched against Xavier.  St. Joseph’s and Drexel are the other First Four at-large teams.  With this grouping, regular-season rematches were unavoidable.  The First Four could look much different come Saturday morning.  The next two days will be critical for teams like Northwestern, Texas, South Florida, Dayton, St. Joseph’s, Miami-Fla, NC State, and Oregon.

Enjoy two full days of great March hoops!

March 5 bracket update: North Carolina grabs final No. 1 seed

With a little help from Ohio State Sunday afternoon in East Lansing, North Carolina grabs the final No. 1 seed in our latest bracket projection. We’re one week from Selection Sunday.  Kentucky continues to own the No. 1 overall seed and stays in the South.  Syracuse (East) and Kansas (Midwest) hold the other two positions.  Ohio State, Michigan State, and Duke are still alive in the No. 1 seed chase.  Missouri would need a little more help.  Those four are your two-seeds heading into conference tournament play, and it’s somewhat unlikely to change unless Marquette were to win the Big East championship.

March 5 Bracket Projection – Bracketology

What can be said about the bubble that hasn’t already been noted?  Teams being considered for the final at-large spots all have significant flaws.  Hopefully, conference tournament play will help sort a few of those issues out.  When teams are broken down, there is a fair amout of subjectivity involved.  What is most important to each voting member of the Selection Committee?  That’s a question only those folks in the room know for sure.

One addition to our Last 5 IN is Tennessee.  Yes, the Volunteers are just 17-13, but they did claim the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament.  It’s also worth noting that Tennessee is 10-5 with freshman Jarnell Stokes, who joined the team in early January.  He is averaging 9.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in those 15 contests and Tennessee is a different team with him in the lineup.  Losses to Oakland, Charleston, and Austin Peay occurred before he arrived.  It will be interesting to see how the Committee handles that information.  Given Tennessee’s two wins over Florida, and victories over Vanderbilt, Connecticut, and Mississippi, UT slides into the First Four.  They likely need a couple of wins in New Orleans to hold their spot – depending on what happens around them.

One note: As automatic bids are now being awarded, teams listed in CAPS will signify teams that have actually clinched an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, rather than the projected champion.  Exceptions are made for teams that normally uses abbreviations (UNLV, BYU, etc). The highest seed remaining in a conference tournament is used as the projected champion if the bid has not been determined.