Inside the Bracket: At-Large picture – Part II

Just in time for Christmas, here’s Part II of the at-large landscape.  This version focuses on teams from the BCS conference along with those from the Mountain West, Conference USA, and Atlantic 10.  As we noted in Part I, conference season begins in full force next week, and a lot of basketball remains.  The goal is to provide a quick peek into the at-large picture ahead of Bubble Banter in February.

It’s too early to lock any teams into the NCAA Tournament.  For the purposes of time and space, however, we’re not going to dwell on the at-large possibilities for teams like Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse, Duke, etc.  If January turns sour, then we’ll catch up on those teams in February.  Let’s go Inside the Bracket:

Kansas State – The Wildcats play Long Beach State on Sunday for the Diamond Head Classic title in Honolulu.  A victory would add LBSU to a win list that includes Alabama and Virgina Tech (road).  K-State lost a neutral court game to West Virginia.  While the rest of the non-conference resume is light, the Wildcats enter Big 12 play in pretty good position.  West Virginia and Virginia Tech are both potential bubble teams, so a split is okay.  The key will be finding victories against Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri and finishing among the top four or five in conference play.  Kansas State opens at rival KU on January 4.  After that, it’s Missouri and Baylor at home.  So the Wildcats can set an NCAA footprint early.

Texas AM – If you take a closer look at the Aggies, one thing becomes apparent: an NCAA bid is in serious jeopardy.  The Aggies non-conference schedule strength (No. 337) is dreadful, and TxAM’s best win is St. John’s.  Furthering the issue is a lopsided loss at Florida and follow-up home loss to Rice.  It will take some serious work in the Big 12 to overcome the Aggies’ start.  That work begins at Baylor on January 2.  Flashback: Colorado (last March).  The Buffaloes won some big games in the Big 12 but were left home on Selection Sunday thanks to a non-conference SOS that mirrors the Aggies’ in 2011-12.

North Carolina tops 2011-12 Preseason Power 24

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With the start of college hoops season just a week away, it’s no surprise that North Carolina tops our Preseason Power 24 at Bracketville.  Kentucky, Connecticut, and Ohio State are right behind.

One can debate whether UConn or Ohio State should be switched.  Fair-minded people can also discuss North Carolina and Kentucky.  But with a host of experience back, the Tar Heels are early favorites to cut down the nets in New Orleans.  UK, UConn, and Ohio State should challenge, as will a handful of others.  Spots 5-10 look like this … Syracuse, Duke, Memphis, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Louisville.

Cautious optimism is always wise.  If we’ve learned anything the past few years it’s that preseason expectations and on-court performance aren’t always the same.  We’ve also seen talented teams struggle early as they learn to play together.  Because we have no real evidence, preseason rankings are merely a starting point.  Thankfully, come March, what matters is actual results.  Sure, we’ll have our debates about a few teams, but the tournament will be great because we play the games.

I’m excited about another journey toward Selection Sunday.  Thanks for your interest.  Follow along here and at NBC Sports.com.

Reality check: Performance starting to outweigh potential

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We’re about to have our annual reality check.  It’s the point of the college hoops season when actual performance starts to outweigh potential.  Moving forward, projected selection and seeding will become increasingly reflective of a team’s actual profile and less about what we expect (or expected) said team to achieve.   Note: until we hit Championship Week, there will always be some potential figured into bracket projections.  The goal is still to provide both a snapshot of where we are while balancing realistic possibilities.

Early in the season, the bracket is mostly about potential – what do we expect?  Then, as teams begin building actual resumes – schedule strength, wins, losses, road performance, etc – we have better guidelines to use.  For some teams, that’s good.  For others, not so much.  Here are a couple of examples.

Memphis – The Tigers opened the season as a projected No. 3 seed based on talent and the expectations of a gaudy won-loss record in Conference USA.  Since beating Miami-FL (Nov. 15), however, Memphis has missed – in some cases badly – opportunities against Kansas, Georgetown, and Tennessee.  Thus, the Tigers have one win over a potential NCAA team to date - and Miami-FL would be among a handful of bubble teams on the edge if this were Selection Sunday. Factor in UM’s loss at Southern Methodist (RPI No. 271 – from CollegeRPI.com), and it’s easy to see why the Tigers’ actual profile is far different than what we anticipated in November.  That’s not to say Memphis can’t make a run to the C-USA title, but the Tigers’ performance to date would land them outside the Field of 68. 

Pre-season Bracket Projection: Midnight Madness edition

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Welcome back, college hoops.   Time for a little pre-season fun, Midnight Madness style.

After a rather interesting off-season - my Top 5 story lines here – let’s take an updated look the new 68-team bracket.  Quick note of caution … selecting and seeding teams for a bracket projection in March is easier than estimating what might happen over the next five months. So consider this effort what it is:  a mix of what we know, what we expect, and a lot of guesswork.

UPDATE (11/6/2010): The Midnight Madness edition is now longer available.  It has been replaced with our Season-Opening edition – a few minor tweaks/updates included.  Below is the rest of the column regarding the Midnight Madness edition.  

If there is common ground, it’s that defending champ Duke should open the season as the No. 1 team.  No exception here as the Blue Devils remain the overall top seed.  From there, we start tweaking.  Joining Duke on the top line are: Purdue, Michigan State and Pittsburgh.  The Panthers made the biggest leap, but coach Jamie Dixon is bullish on his team and we’ll buy it.  The uncertainty surrounding star recruits at Kentucky (Enes Kanter) and Kansas (Josh Selby) are also considerations.  Both the Wildcats and Jayhawks lead a group of solid No. 2 seeds along with Ohio State and Kansas State.  Syracuse, Villanova, Florida and Memphis fall into the three-line.  Talk about powerhouse names.

First Four:  The new format begins with four games in Dayton.   Projected matchups … New Mexico vs. Dayton | Louisville vs. USC | Lehigh vs. Vermont | Jackson State vs. S.F. Austin.  In this scenario, New Mexico, Dayton, Louisville and USC are the last four at-large teams in the field.  Lehigh, Vermont, Jackson State and S.F. Austin are projected as the lowest four ranked teams on the S-curve.

Last 5 IN: Northwestern, New Mexico, USC, Louisville, Dayton.  First 5 OUT: Maryland, Connecticut, Northern Iowa, St. Louis, Notre Dame.

We all know there will be a surprise or two along the way – especially in conference tournaments.  One could easily argue that Illinois and Virginia Tech missed last year’s tournament because New Mexico State (WAC) and Houston (C-USA) won their league tournaments.  It happens almost every year and teams on the bubble this March will face the same fate – even with the expanded field.  Someone will always be the first team out.

For those new to Bracketville, links for the Schedule (upcoming key games), Bubble Banter, and Conference Tourneys will be updated as warranted.  Team Capsules highlights key wins and losses for schools under consideration.  If you want to know how we did last season, check out 2010 Projection Results.

Take a look.  Send a rebound.  Differences of opinion are part of the fun.  Follow college hoops on www.nbcsports.com; I’m excited about our second year of partnership.  Follow along on Twitter and e-mail us a bracketville.hoops@gmail.com.  More to come.  The regular season is just around the corner.

Hoops Marathon: Early-season Madness

It’s not March, but it had that feel.  Games all day and all night.  Credit ESPN with the idea and execution for a 24-hour hoops marathon.   Madness, you ask?  Well, the event tipped off at midnight and promptly rewarded those willing and able to watch with a double-overtime upset at Pauley Pavillion: Cal-State Fullerton 68, UCLA 65.  Next in line …. St. Mary’s dominated San Diego State 80-58.   Mark those down as potentially noteworthy wins for the Big West and West Coast Conferences.

Best for Last …

What a way to finish 24 hours of hoops!  Michigan State and Gonzaga traded blows as the Spartans won their 41st straight non-conference game at the Breslin Center, 75-71.  The Zags – who led much of the game – presented a stronger-than-expected challenge and showed why they’re favored to win the West Coast Conference again – and likely earn a seed in the top half of the bracket come March.  Meanwhile, the cupboard certainly isn’t bare at Memphis.  The Tigers took Kansas to the wire in St. Louis, missing a late 3-pointer.  KU did help Memphis a bit with 21 turnovers.  We can never read too much into November games, but here’s a takeaway: Don’t be surprised if Memphis challenges Tulsa in Conference USA and the league earns two bids to the Dance.

Afternoon | Evening observations …

Good win posted by Siena (59-53 over Northeastern).  Not spectacular, but one that won’t reflect negatively on the Saints in February or March … Georgetown escaped Temple 46-45 in what can only be described as something Big 10ish from last season.  A win’s a win, but the Hoyas still have plenty of work to do if they are going to bounce back as everyone expects.  Heard Doug Gottlieb of ESPN say he thinks G’Town may be running short on recruiting talent because of the Princeton-style offense run by John Thompson III.  Hard to say.  This same system took the Hoyas to the Final 4 in 2007 … Louisville played sloppy at times but has a lot of talent and potential.  They blew past a depleted Arkansas team 96-66 in St. Louis.  The Cards need to create a hectic pace.  Hofstra showed why the Pride figure to challenge in the Colonial, fighting Connecticut until the final moments.