Bubble Banter: Big weekend for several teams

Our current NCAA tournament bubble isn’t necessarily any weaker, but it certainly isn’t shrinking.  Games this weekend should help clear up a few spots – although it hasn’t happened yet.  Right now, there are 25 teams listed as projected locks, with another seven teams in strong position to claim a bid (Should Be In).  When you add in the 31 automatic qualifers (minus projected locks), that leaves us with about 16 spots.  Some of the bubble teams are in stronger position than others.

March 3 Bubble Banter update.

A few quick thoughts about the weekend …

• Connecticut and Mississippi State are the two BCS teams currently in our bracket that most need victories this weekend. Connecticut hosts Pittsburgh and Mississippi State hosts Arkansas.
• Cincinnati should punch its ticket by winning at Villanova.  A loss would make the Bearcats’ Big East tournament opener more important.
• Northwestern needs to win its game at Iowa, but that won’t be easy. The Hawkeyes have been a tough out at home.
• Washington can wrap up a Pac-12 title by winning at UCLA.  That won’t guarantee the Huskies a spot, but it would certainly help.
• Virginia travels to Maryland with a two-game losing streak.  A loss would drop the Cavaliers to 8-8 in the ACC and make UVA’s opening round ACC tournament game much more intense.

Enjoy a weekend of college hoops.  Several teams will punch NCAA dance tickets.

March 2 Bracket: Race continues for No. 1 seeds

Welcome to March.  Three new teams have joined the bracket: Colorado State, South Florida, and VCU.  Sliding out: Northwestern, Dayton, and St. Joseph’s. It’s going to be an interesting nine days until Selection Sunday.

Fresh off a week of great games, here’s your lates update:

March 2 Bracket Projection – Bracketology

The race for No. 1 seeds continues with Goliath matchups this weekend.  Michigan State hosts Ohio State, and the Spartans can wrap up an outright Big Ten championship by beating the Buckeyes.  There’s also Round 2 of the Duke and North Carolina rivalry.  Results from those games will have a direct impact on the No. 1 seed line as we head into Championship Week.  Kentucky and Syracuse continue to lead the field, and that’s unlikely to change.  Kansas now has the inside track for the Midwest Regional in St. Louis, but it’s not locked in place.  The No. 4 overall seed will be shipped West.  In essence, there are five teams fighting for two spots on the top line.  Ohio State could re-enter the discussion if the Buckeyes beat MSU this weekend and win the Big Ten conference tournament.

Inside the Bracket: Bubble update and the Big East

Welcome to Bracketville

Four days until Selection Sunday.  The next 48 hours are like Saturday at the Masters: Moving Days.  The Big Ten, ACC, and SEC join the post-season tournament party with a host of teams trying to make a final impression on Selection Committee members gathered in Indianapolis.  We also have the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and Pac-10 moving into quarterfinal action.  Every bubble team gets its day on the court.

March 9 Bubble Banter | updated at 11:30 p.m. ET

Away from the bubble,  it’s all about seeding.  A couple of spots on the s-curve might make the difference between playing closer to home or being sent cross-country.  We also have at least one No. 1 seed up for grabs.  In the west, all eyes will be on BYU - what statement will the Cougars make at the Mountain West tournament?

With Marquette’s win over West Virginia Wednesday night, it looks all but certain that 11 Big East teams will earn bids to the NCAA tournament. A couple will limp in – Villanova and Georgetown – but we’ll have a first (besides the First Four) during the 2011 Madness.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Villanova, Georgetown, and Marquette in 8-9 games (unless the Eagles keep winning or we get confirmation that Chris Wright is returning for the Hoyas).

Any upsets this year?  Last year, we went down to the wire with Mississippi State in the SEC tournament.  What if Utah State loses in the WAC?  What about UAB if they fall in the Conference USA final?  It looks like we still have 10 spots available.  For the latest, follow along on Twitter @BracketguyDave.  March Madness. Gotta love it.

Bubble Banter: 12 spots available as March opens

Welcome to Bracketville

Update: Bubble Banter has been updated through Thursday, March 3.  It’s somewhat hard to believe, but there about 11 spots still open in the bracket as we move into Championship Week.  Fortunately, we have pared down the bubble some.  We now have 11 spots open with 28 teams in contention. 

March 4 Bubble Banter - New Update | 6:15 a.m. March 4

Will we add a few teams before or during Championship Week? I would expect it – especially given the nature of college hoops this season.  As weak as the bubble is, it’s not a great challenge to work your way into consideration.

Outside Ohio State, Purdue and Wisconsin, the Big Ten remains highly unsettled.  Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State are trying to hold on or play their way in.  In the Big 12, Baylor and Colorado could go either way.  And in the Pac-10, Washington and Washington State remain question marks.  The ACC is equally uncertain with Boston College and Clemson right on the cutline.  Florida State and Virginia Tech are in front of them, but need to avoid a letdown this next week.  In the SEC, the bubble teams are Georgia and Alabama.

Have an opinion?  Send a rebound.  Bring some data.  Enjoy the hoops and the conversation.  March Madness is almost here.

Bubble Banter: Teams often play their way out …

Welcome to Bracketville

Teams often play their way out of NCAA Contention.  It’s just not always this early in February.  After a less-than-stellar week for many bubble teams, we start Week 2 of Bubble Banter with 38 teams on the Bubble.  Of course, that can  – and will – change.

February 18 Bubble Banter

Let’s look at changes from last week … Teams that moved up to Locks: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Temple, Butler, Gonzaga …  Teams moving to Should Be In: Richmond … Teams moving onto the Bubble: Cornell (down), Seton Hall (up), St. Louis (up) … Teams leaving the Bubble: Minnesota, Northwestern, Virginia, VCU, South Carolina, Tulsa.  The Bracket Math looks like this …

• Locks: 18
• Should Be In: 11
• There are 31 automatic bids.  We have to subtract 11 knowing that some of the locks will be automatic bids.  That means if you add the 20 remaining automatic bids (likely one-bid leagues) and the 18 locks, we have 38 of 65 bids taken.  If you add in the 11 teams that Should Be In, we’re now at 49.  Subtract 49 from 65 and you have 16 spots available.  We currently have 38 teams on the Bubble.  So less than half will ultimately make the Field of 65.

Is this the year the Big East breaks the 8-team barrier?  Perhaps, but there is a developing separation in the Big East standings; not a good thing for team’s below the breakline.  If the Big East number reaches or surpasses eight (8) it will be because two or three teams currently below the breakline put winning streaks together.

It’s looking more and more like five (5) max from the Big 10.  Minnesota lost at Northwestern who subsequently lost to Penn State at home.  Again, there is a clear breakline between the top and bottom tier.   The SEC is much less defined.  Whether or not teams like Ole Miss and Mississippi State can slide up remains a question.  It doesn’t help that Arkansas leads the SEC West.  Florida continues to live on the edge, too.  In the Mountain West, once solid UNLV has slipped.  Yet, the real question remains San Diego State.  Plenty of possibilities from the Colonial, too.  Old Dominion has the best profile, William & Mary has a stronger non-conference effort, and Northeastern co-leads the conference.  How about the Atlantic 10?  Rhode Island, Charlotte and Dayton are losing league ground the upstart St. Louis.

Count on some interesting moments in conference tournaments … and in this weekend’s BracketBuster games.  Remember, teams earn bids, not conferences.  What matters is having one of the best 34 at-large resumes come March 14.