March 5 bracket update: North Carolina grabs final No. 1 seed

With a little help from Ohio State Sunday afternoon in East Lansing, North Carolina grabs the final No. 1 seed in our latest bracket projection. We’re one week from Selection Sunday.  Kentucky continues to own the No. 1 overall seed and stays in the South.  Syracuse (East) and Kansas (Midwest) hold the other two positions.  Ohio State, Michigan State, and Duke are still alive in the No. 1 seed chase.  Missouri would need a little more help.  Those four are your two-seeds heading into conference tournament play, and it’s somewhat unlikely to change unless Marquette were to win the Big East championship.

March 5 Bracket Projection – Bracketology

What can be said about the bubble that hasn’t already been noted?  Teams being considered for the final at-large spots all have significant flaws.  Hopefully, conference tournament play will help sort a few of those issues out.  When teams are broken down, there is a fair amout of subjectivity involved.  What is most important to each voting member of the Selection Committee?  That’s a question only those folks in the room know for sure.

One addition to our Last 5 IN is Tennessee.  Yes, the Volunteers are just 17-13, but they did claim the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament.  It’s also worth noting that Tennessee is 10-5 with freshman Jarnell Stokes, who joined the team in early January.  He is averaging 9.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in those 15 contests and Tennessee is a different team with him in the lineup.  Losses to Oakland, Charleston, and Austin Peay occurred before he arrived.  It will be interesting to see how the Committee handles that information.  Given Tennessee’s two wins over Florida, and victories over Vanderbilt, Connecticut, and Mississippi, UT slides into the First Four.  They likely need a couple of wins in New Orleans to hold their spot – depending on what happens around them.

One note: As automatic bids are now being awarded, teams listed in CAPS will signify teams that have actually clinched an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, rather than the projected champion.  Exceptions are made for teams that normally uses abbreviations (UNLV, BYU, etc). The highest seed remaining in a conference tournament is used as the projected champion if the bid has not been determined.

Bubble Banter: Big weekend for several teams

Our current NCAA tournament bubble isn’t necessarily any weaker, but it certainly isn’t shrinking.  Games this weekend should help clear up a few spots – although it hasn’t happened yet.  Right now, there are 25 teams listed as projected locks, with another seven teams in strong position to claim a bid (Should Be In).  When you add in the 31 automatic qualifers (minus projected locks), that leaves us with about 16 spots.  Some of the bubble teams are in stronger position than others.

March 3 Bubble Banter update.

A few quick thoughts about the weekend …

• Connecticut and Mississippi State are the two BCS teams currently in our bracket that most need victories this weekend. Connecticut hosts Pittsburgh and Mississippi State hosts Arkansas.
• Cincinnati should punch its ticket by winning at Villanova.  A loss would make the Bearcats’ Big East tournament opener more important.
• Northwestern needs to win its game at Iowa, but that won’t be easy. The Hawkeyes have been a tough out at home.
• Washington can wrap up a Pac-12 title by winning at UCLA.  That won’t guarantee the Huskies a spot, but it would certainly help.
• Virginia travels to Maryland with a two-game losing streak.  A loss would drop the Cavaliers to 8-8 in the ACC and make UVA’s opening round ACC tournament game much more intense.

Enjoy a weekend of college hoops.  Several teams will punch NCAA dance tickets.

Michigan State joins No. 1 seed line in latest bracket

Fresh off road wins at Ohio State and Purdue, the Michigan State Spartans have not only grabbed first place in the Big Ten but also a No. 1 seed in this week’s bracket projection.  MSU is 7-3 vs. teams currently ranked in the Top 25 of the RPI, which is two more such victories than Duke or Kansas.  The Spartans also own the nation’s second best overall strength of schedule, and haven’t lost in the month of February.  Kansas falls in at No. 5 on the s-curve, follwed by Duke, Ohio State, and North Carolina.  Kentucky, Syracuse, and Missouri are the other No. 1 seeds today.

The middle and bottom portions of the bracket remain very unsettled.  Other than New Mexico, it was an interesting week in the Mountain West, as both UNLV and San Diego State lost multiple games.  The Lobos are now alone in first place.  As for the bubble, it’s as weak as ever.  If teams like Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee State, Oral Roberts, and Iona don’t win automatic bids, it will interesting to see how many (if any) of those schools might grab an at-large.  Championship Week is shaping up as a week that could shake-up the bracket .

Bubble Banter will be updated later in the week, and it will provide a better glimpse into where we stand.  Most teams currently on the 8-seed line or below have potential issues with their at-large resumes.  Some cases are stronger than others, but there’s a reason they are located in those spots on the s-curve.  We could still see a lot of fluctuation.

Here are a few final thoughts from the Mock Selection exercise last week in Indianapolis.  A team’s entire body of work is evaluated.  Games in November count the same as February or March … Head-to-head results are considered, but only as one part of a team’s profile.  Just because Team A beat Team B doesn’t necessarily mean Team A has a better overall profile … One good win or one bad loss doesn’t define a team’s season … During our evaluations, a team’s league record was rarely discussed … Strength of schedule (particularly out of conference) was a significant consideration for teams whose overall body of work was somewhat questionnable … Teams did receive consideration for players who missed part of the season (not brawl/fight related) … Sometimes the “eye test” is important, which is why Selection Committee members watch so many games … Discussions can be very insightful.  While voting is private, open debate about particular teams is beneficial duing the evaluation process.

Enjoy a great week of hoops.  We’re just three weeks away from Selection Sunday.

February 13 bracket: Tigers find a Missouri Valentine’s Day present

With Valentines’ Day ahead on Tuesday, the Missouri Tigers will love their latest placement in our projected NCAA tournament bracket.  Mizzou moves into the Midwest Region in nearby St. Louis.  If Tiger fans are so inclined, they can send a thank-you note to the Spartans in East Lansing.  Michigan State knocked off Ohio State in Columbus and bumped the Buckeyes out West.  Kansas is right behind, and OSU and KU are 1-2 in the West Region.  If you have a different order, that’s fine; it was a close call.  Next up are Duke, Michigan State and North Carolina on the two-line.

February 13 Bracket Projection

Schedule of key games.

The middle of the bracket is a seeding nightmare.  There simply isn’t a lot of difference in teams slotted between lines 6 to 8; or for that matter, teams seeded between 8 and 11.  Expect to see changes and movement in these lines over the next two or three weeks.  In fact, we had to move several teams one line in the bracket to accommodate correct principles and avoid regular-season rematches.  All in a day’s work.

The bubble remains weak, and that helps teams like Illinois and West Virginia work through losing skids.  When comparing resumes, quality wins help separate teams, and several Big Ten and Big East teams, in particular, have more quality wins than others on the bubble.  As a reminder, a team’s performance in its last 12 games is no longer an official stat used by the Selection Committee.

Enjoy a great week of hoops!  I’ll be at the NCAA Mock Selection event in Indianapolis on Thursday and Friday.  I’m looking forward to seeing how the process works first-hand, and how those of us attending work through selection and seeding in our current landscape.

Kentucky and Syracuse remain 1-2 in January 30 bracket

Kentucky and Syracuse remain No. 1 and No. 2 on the s-curve in this week’s bracket.  That scenario may not change when the actual Field of 68 is announced on Selection Sunday.  Wildcat fans can start making plans to watch their team in nearby Louisville during Rounds 2 and 3 of March Madness.  It would take a mighty February fall for UK to leave the Commonwealth.  Syracuse is most likely headed to Pittsburgh as the top seed in the East Region.

Ohio State remains entrenched as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest.  Which leads us West, where the race includes five teams: Baylor, Kansas, Duke, Missouri, and North Carolina.  Those are the teams ranked 4 to 8 on the s-curve today.  Baylor gains the edge with its seven (7) Top 50 RPI wins and 8-1 record away from home (road + neutral).  By comparison, Kansas has six (6) Top 50 wins and Missouri four (4).  Kansas is 6-3 away from home and Missouri is 7-2.  Duke has five (5) Top 50 wins and is 8-2 away from home.  Baylor has lost only to Kansas (road) and Missouri (home).  If you prefer a different order, that’s fine.

January 30 Bracket Projection

Schedule of key games this week

Could we have a surprise No. 1 seed?  It would take a team like Vanderbilt, Florida, or Michigan State winning a regular-season and/or conference tournament title.  The Mountain West and Missouri Valley are strong leagues, but neither UNLV or Creighton is in position to reach the top line.  There simply aren’t enough power victories on their schedules.

How many bids for the Big 10?  With the No. 1. RPI rating and no teams ranked below 150, the Big Ten could easily garner bids from teams that finish 9-9 in conference play.  Even an 8-10 finish wouldn’t eliminate a team – depending on the eight wins.  If in doubt, look at the resumes of the current bubble teams.  Because of the Big Ten’s overall strength, quality wins are more available.  Think back to the 11 bids captured by Big East teams in 2011.  The scenario is similar.  That doesn’t mean Big Ten teams will dominate the tournament, but the odds of seven to nine teams making the final bracket is pretty good.

Cincinnati is this week’s ultimate test case (again).  Riding a three-game losing streak, the Bearcats have fallen to No. 101 in the RPI (at collegerpi.com). That would be a very dangerous place to be on Selection Sunday.  Looking past the RPI number, we find UC with a 2-3 record against Top 50 teams (good wins at Georgetown and Connecticut).  They are 6-4 vs. the Top 100 and have a 5-3 mark in true road games.  UC has losses to teams ranked 135, 148, and 229 in the current RPI.  Then there’s the albatross of a non-conference SOS ranked No. 330.  Now, let’s look at Colorado’s numbers from 2011 … four Top 25 RPI wins (beat K-State three times), five Top 50 wins and losses to RPI teams ranked 120, 126, and 138.  The Buffaloes also had a non-conference SOS over 300.  The Selection Committee chose not to invite Colorado with those numbers – despite its quality wins.  The Bearcats are one of the final teams IN today.  But the odds won’t be in UC’s favor if the current trend continues.

Enjoy another week of hoops.  After Super Bowl Sunday, we being updating the bracket twice a week.  Bubble Banter returns soon.