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Posts Tagged ‘NCAA Tournament projections’

Florida in driver’s seat for No. 1 overall seed

March 10, 2014 Leave a comment

dave1With its victory over Kentucky – and Arizona’s loss at Oregon – the Florida Gators are in the driver’s seat for the overall No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament.  Regardless, the Gators will be the top seed in the South Region with opening round games in nearby Orlando.  The remaining No. 1 seeds as we begin Championship Week: Arizona (West), Wichita State (Midwest) and Villanova (East).

Bracket Update

S-Curve

At this point, the first three No. 1 seeds appear to be locked-in.  Which leaves us one spot for three or four teams.  At least that’s how it appears today.  The contenders include Villanova (as noted above), Kansas, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Virginia is still in the hunt, but its journey became much tougher after Sunday’s loss at Maryland.  Achieving a No. 1 seed with eight losses would be something new, but few teams in history have played Kansas’ schedule.  If Michigan wins the Big Ten tournament, the Wolverines would have a legitimate argument.  They possess a higher number of NCAA-level wins than Villanova – due to the strength of the Big Ten as compared to the Big East.  Wisconsin’s non-conference performance – with victories over Florida and Virginia – would help the Badgers’ case if they find the winner’s circle in Indianapolis next Sunday.

We’ll be updating the bracket every day this week as automatic qualifiers arrive and conference tournaments continue.  Teams that have clinched automatic berths are listed in ALL CAPS – with the exception of teams like BYU and UCLA.

The bubble remains a work in progress.  Nebraska grabbed a spot after beating Wisconsin on Sunday. Xavier, Tennessee, and BYU join the Huskers at the First Four in Dayton.  It’s a big week for those teams and several others who are just above the last four at-larges.  We’ll have to see how it plays out.

Categories: Current Updates

Bracket Update: Gators, Wildcats chase No. 1 overall seed

March 7, 2014 Leave a comment

dave1Championship Week begins tomorrow.  It’s time to start handing out Dance tickets.

The two teams leading our March Madness Gala … Florida and Arizona.  The Gators and Wildcats both have the opportunity to enter the NCAA Tournament dance as the overall No. 1 seed.  Should both win their remaining games – including conference tournament titles – the edge will likely to go Arizona.  Not that it’s that critical this year because the two teams are geographically separated.  Florida will lead the South Region; Arizona the West.  A year ago, when Louisville and Indiana were battling for the top spot in the Midwest, and a route through Indianapolis, that top position meant more.

Bracket Update

S-Curve

Wichita State begins Missouri Valley Tournament play today in St. Louis.  The Shockers ended the regular season without a blemish.  If they win three more under the Arch, expect WSU to be a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.  Kansas continues to hold the final No. 1 slot.  Four other teams are chasing the top line: Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, and Villanova.  Recent struggles make it difficult for Syracuse to regain a No. 1 seed. Read more…

Categories: Current Updates

January 21 Bracket: Strong profile pushes Kansas to top line

January 21, 2014 Leave a comment

dave1Since losing to San Diego State, the Kansas Jayhawks have put together a five-game surge that includes victories over its biggest competitors in the Big 12 conference – Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Baylor.  Two of those (Oklahoma, Iowa State) were on the road.  Add in victories over Duke and New Mexico in non-conference play, and KU has notched eight Top 50 RPI victories.  That’s two more than Syracuse, four more than Arizona, and three more than Michigan State – the other members of today’s No. 1 seed club.  It’s also worth noting that Kansas has played the nation’s toughest schedule and currently sits atop the RPI.   That’s a pretty strong profile (despite four losses – all to Top 25 RPI Teams), and the primary reason why the Jayhawks received the No. 4 slot on this week’s seed list (s-curve).  When evaluating KU’s overall body of work, it’s pretty strong.

Bracket Projection

S-curve

We still have two months to go and several other teams could reach the No. 1 seed line by March.  Teams like Florida and Wichita State are building strong resumes, as is San Diego State.  And it’s too early to count out Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin from the Big Ten title chase.  The final contenders will be much more clear by mid-February.

On the flip side, January hasn’t been a good month for teams like Ohio State, Baylor, and North Carolina – or Georgetown for that matter; as the Hoyas are among the First Five OUT today.  Through the first third of conference play, the Buckeyes, Bears, and Tar Heels own a combined 4-12 record (in league play).  Some of that is due to scheduling and some of it has been inconsistent play.  Either way, it would be a good time for those squads to reverse course.  By the time we reach mid-February, a seriously sub-par conference record will not be endearing to the Selection Committee.

One of the best things about college basketball is that we never know what will happen.  Enjoy the hoops.

Categories: Current Updates

Quick recap: Results from 2013 projections …

March 17, 2013 Leave a comment

dave1Congratulations to the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State on being selected for an at-large spot in the 2013 NCAA Tournament.  In a rare move (based on selection history), the Committee looked beyond “win” numbers and included a team that scheduled well and ran through it’s conference season before an upset in the league tourney.  As I noted earlier in the day Sunday, such a decision would be appreciated.  Now, such moves have not been commonplace.  More often than not, RPI win totals surpass victories over largely inferior competition – regardless of how the numbers add up.  Having been through this a time or two, we’ve seen teams with equal or even better resumes (than MTSU’s this year) be left holding a bid to the NIT.  So was it somewhat surprising?  Yes.  Whether it becomes a trend remains to be seen.

As a quick recap on our final bracket … 67 of 68 teams were correctly identified (thus 36 of 37 at-large teams).  The one miss was Middle Tennessee.  I had Tennessee in the bracket instead.  The rest of the numbers look like this:  32 teams on the correct seed line and another 29 within one seed of actual.  Combined, that is 61 of the 68 teams either on their actual seed line or within one.  Four others were within two of their actual seed.  Oregon as a 12 seed was the wildcard and would be my one – where did that come from? – reaction to the bracket.

Again, thanks for your interest in Bracketville and your participation.  The journeys and conversations along the way make it enjoyable.  Here’s to a great tournament!

Categories: Current Updates

March 11 Bracket: Louisville reclaims No. 1 seed

March 11, 2013 Leave a comment

dave1In November, the Louisville Cardinals were projected to be a No. 1 seed when the NCAA tournament began.  Now, less than a week until Selection Sunday, the Cardinals have reclaimed their spot on the top line.  Louisville sits as the fourth No. 1 seed, heading to the South Region.  Duke (East), Indiana (Midwest), and Gonzaga (West) are in front of the Cards.  The race isn’t over, though.  Kansas, Georgetown, New Mexico, and a second Big Ten team could still claim a spot on the top line.  It’s going to be an important week for both the top and bottom of the bracket.

March 11 Bracket Projection   |    March 11 s-curve

Speaking of the bubble, Kentucky is the final at-large team on the board today.  They are joined in the First Four by Saint Mary’s, La Salle, and Iowa State.  The margin between these teams, and those around them, is minimal.  If we see an upset or two this week, the last few spots could change several times between now and Sunday.  Which conference tournaments are most likely to produce a surprise winner?  On the surface, it looks like the Atlantic 10, SEC, or the Pac-12.  While Memphis has dominated Conference USA, the Tigers haven’t wrapped up the automatic berth.  Any stumble would likely claim an at-large spot.

As for seeding, the middle of the bracket is an interesting adventure.  One could almost throw names in a hat (for say, seeds 7-10) and line them up that way.  Again, we could see some shifting on those lines, both due to resume adjustments and for geography.  For all practical purposes, teams in the 8/9 games are essentially the same.  More updates this week.  Enjoy the final ride to March Madness.

Categories: Current Updates

Bubble Banter: Tennessee climbing the at-large ladder

February 28, 2013 Leave a comment

dave1Riding a six-game conference winning streak, the Tennessee Volunteers find themselves in the thick of the at-large conversation.  Since losing at home to Georgia in early February, the Vols have won three league road games and beaten Kentucky and Florida in Knoxville.  And while one could argue (correctly) that the SEC isn’t particularly strong or deep, Tennessee has given itself a chance to participate in March Madness.  Such a scenario would have been considered a stretch a month ago.

February 28 Bubble Banter

A similar streak helped Illinois overcome a 2-7 mark in the Big Ten.  Without a major slip, the Illini are now a likely NCAA participant.  A lot can change in two weeks.

Which brings us to Selection Sunday – now just over two weeks away.

Our latest bubble update finds teams moving both toward and away from the cutline.  Besides the aforementioned Volunteers, here are some teams climbing the at-large ladder: Temple, Saint Mary’s, and California.  Akron should be included too.  The Zips beat Ohio for a second time Wednesday and have a clear path toward an outright Mid-American Conference title.  That will add credibility to the Zips’ profile if they were to fall short in the MAC tournament.

Teams moving in the opposite direction include Arkansas, Charlotte, and Indiana State.  The Sycamores have lost any momentum they once had and probably need to win the MVC tournament in St. Louis to reach the NCAA tournament.  For now, they’ve been removed from the bubble.

One other Missouri Valley note: Both Creighton and Wichita State remain as “Should Be In” teams at the time of this update.  However, both have slipped a bit of late and certainly aren’t locks.  Saturday, they battle for the MVC title.  The winner takes a significant step toward an NCAA bid as it’s hard to imagine the outright MVC champion being left out of the Field.

Bracket update: Indiana, Duke hold top two spots

February 26, 2013 Leave a comment

dave1This probably isn’t a surprise: Indiana and Duke are one-two on the s-curve and are the strongest No. 1 seed candidates as we move toward March.  Since a last-second loss at Illinois, the Hoosiers have reclaimed the outright Big Ten lead by winning at both Ohio State and Michigan State.  A victory at Minnesota tonight puts IU in the driver’s seat for the league’s regular season crown and top seed in the Big Ten tournament.  That scenario would also give the Hoosiers the inside track toward the top spot in the Midwest Region – which flows through Indianapolis.  Duke has steadily worked its way through the absence of Ryan Kelly.  The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the RPI and have played the nation’s second toughest schedule.

February 26 Bracket Projection

Miami-FL and Florida are the final No. 1 seeds.  It’s hard to know if either will hold those positions in two weeks.  A second Big Team is likely to grab a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.  And if Gonzaga closes out a perfect West Coast Conference season and wins its conference tournament, it might be hard for the Committee to deny the Bulldogs a top seed.  Regardless, there’s enough parity among the top three or four seed lines to make the Sweet 16 very entertaining.

Every Selection Committee member has his or her own personal views on which resume items are most important.  Just take a look at some of today’s bubble teams.  Arizona State, Mississippi, Baylor, and Kentucky all have obvious flaws.  If RPI and schedule strength – particularly out of conference – are sticking points, than the Sun Devils are probably out.  At the same time, ASU has two wins over Colorado to go along with victories over UCLA and California.  That’s four wins against three teams currently projected in the Field of 68 – which is more than any of the other three.  Safe to say, the next two weeks will be critical for all of the above.

Categories: Current Updates
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