The Mock Bracket and Day 2 wrap-up from Indy

Those of us fortunate enough to have participated in the NCAA Mock Selection process learned first hand that there’s no such thing as a perfect bracket.  Even with 37 at-large bids available, there’s always team No. 38.  You can’t escape tough decisions.

Committee Chair Jeff Hathaway said he and his fellow Selection Committee members realize the scrutiny involved with putting together what we know as March Madness.  It’s one reason why the NCAA has made the process more transparent in recent years.  The Mock Selection exercise is just one example.  This year, the NCAA’s official RPI, Team Sheets, and Nitty Gritty reports are available online at www.ncaa.org.  Anyone with a computer and an internet connection can view the same reports and data used by committee members.  You can even find the Principles and Procedures for Establishing the bracket at the NCAA site.

Here are few quick notes from Friday:

Seeding the Field of 68 isn’t completed until all 68 teams are selected.  Team A doesn’t have be placed as an 11 or 12 seed just because it was one of the final at-large teams selected.  As “scrubbing” of teams is completed, the s-curve changes.  During our mock exercise, we ultimately moved a few teams around on the s-curve before we began placing them into the bracket.  NCAA team members said this is a common occurrence.  Teams move up or down during the final rankings, and sometimes those teams are moved a seed line to accommodate the bracketing process.

Greg Shaheen of the NCAA said the Selection Committee often spends up to 40 hours “scrubbing” teams during the seeding process.  You may disagree with where a team ends up, but it’s not because every team wasn’t thoroughly evaluated.  As a reference, we spent about an hour and a half “scrubbing” through the seed lines.

A group of committee members is assigned specifically to the bottom quadrant (Seeds 13-16).  Although 13-16 seeds are often automatic qualifiers, Hathaway stressed that it’s important for every team to be evaluated and seeded correctly.

Wrap up from Day 1 of the Mock Selection process

My initial reaction to Day 1 of the Mock Selection process in Indianapolis: the NCAA team does a remarkable job of creating an educational and entertaining experience.  Committee Chair Jeff Hathaway shared a few opening remarks and interacted with the group throughout the day.  Those of us in the room were able to ask questions and receive candid answers about the process and how the real Selection Committee works together to select and seed teams.  Friday, we will continue with final selections, seeding, and bracketing.

Here are a few key takeaways from Thursday …

Hathaway emphasized the incredible prep work done by committee members.  Each member is assigned various conferences and provides detailed reports to the entire committee about such things as injuries, travel issues (that could affect outcomes), etc.  All committee members are provided a DirectTV package that enables them to watch as many games as possible.  Hathaway stressed the importance of watching games and not simply relying on computer data.  Hathaway said he often spends an hour each morning reviewing data from games the night before.

Hathaway wrapped up the evening by talking about the amount of discussion that takes place inside the actual selection room.  He described it as “exhaustive” and “extensive.”  What we spent 15-20 minutes discussing (because of time), the committee might discuss for an hour or more - breaking down the nuances of a team’s schedule, its wins and losses, where its games were played, and whether the team passes the “eye” test.

Hathaway also stressed that the committee values a team’s non-conference schedule.  These are games a team chooses to play.  They have options as to who they play and where they play.  They want teams to challenge themselves. 

February 13 bracket: Tigers find a Missouri Valentine’s Day present

With Valentines’ Day ahead on Tuesday, the Missouri Tigers will love their latest placement in our projected NCAA tournament bracket.  Mizzou moves into the Midwest Region in nearby St. Louis.  If Tiger fans are so inclined, they can send a thank-you note to the Spartans in East Lansing.  Michigan State knocked off Ohio State in Columbus and bumped the Buckeyes out West.  Kansas is right behind, and OSU and KU are 1-2 in the West Region.  If you have a different order, that’s fine; it was a close call.  Next up are Duke, Michigan State and North Carolina on the two-line.

February 13 Bracket Projection

Schedule of key games.

The middle of the bracket is a seeding nightmare.  There simply isn’t a lot of difference in teams slotted between lines 6 to 8; or for that matter, teams seeded between 8 and 11.  Expect to see changes and movement in these lines over the next two or three weeks.  In fact, we had to move several teams one line in the bracket to accommodate correct principles and avoid regular-season rematches.  All in a day’s work.

The bubble remains weak, and that helps teams like Illinois and West Virginia work through losing skids.  When comparing resumes, quality wins help separate teams, and several Big Ten and Big East teams, in particular, have more quality wins than others on the bubble.  As a reminder, a team’s performance in its last 12 games is no longer an official stat used by the Selection Committee.

Enjoy a great week of hoops!  I’ll be at the NCAA Mock Selection event in Indianapolis on Thursday and Friday.  I’m looking forward to seeing how the process works first-hand, and how those of us attending work through selection and seeding in our current landscape.

Inside the Bracket: Teams (names) behind the numbers …

It’s always an interesting exercise when you take a team’s name away from its numbers.   To demonstrate, let’s look at some numbers used by the NCAA Selection Committee to select and seed teams for the tournament.  We’ll refer to them as Team A, etc. during the first part of the exercise, and reveal the names at the end of the column.  Data comes from collegerpi.com (through Feb. 7).

Let’s go Inside the Bracket …

Team           Road    RPI 1-50    Top 100    Losses 100+    SOS    NC-SOS   Field wins

Team A         2-5         3-3           6-3             142, 144            48           90             3

Team B         2-3         5-5           7-6                139                20           121            4

Team C         8-3         3-1           5-3                151                94           137            2

Team D         5-2         4-3           6-3                 NA                85            208           4

Team E         3-3         0-4           3-7                 NA                83             94            0

Team F         6-1          3-1           6-2                NA                123          166            2

Team G        3-3          3-4           5-6                 NA                79            226           2

Team H        7-2          2-2           8-3                 NA                35            41             2

We purposely didn’t include overall Division I record (through Feb. 7) or conference record to make it more difficult to identify the teams in question – even though both are important factors.  Field Wins refers to victories over teams currently projected to make the NCAA tournament (from our latest bracket projection).  For simplicity, we didn’t include teams from non-BCS conferences who were in the bracket as automatic qualifiers.  SOS refers to strength of schedule and NC-SOS refers to non-conference strength of schedule.

Using the data above, how would you rank the teams?  Everyone will have a different opinion on which criteria is most important.  That’s why the actual selection process involves a series of confidential voting procedures.  Committee members debate, make arguments, discuss concerns, etc.  Then, it’s put to a vote.  A certain number of votes are needed for teams to move “IN” the bracket or to be placed on a seed line.  I’m looking forward to learning more about the process during the NCAA Mock Selection event next week in Indianapolis.

Are quality wins your most important criteria?  Road record? How do you factor in losses to sub-100 teams?  These are just a few considerations.  Something else to note: take away wins over teams ranked below 200 in the RPI (lower third of Division I).  Sometimes, that gives you a different insight into how well a team’s overall record matches its performance.  We’re not picking on Murray State – an excellent team having a remarkable season. But let’s use the Racers as an example.  If you remove Murray’s 12 wins against teams ranked 200 or lower, the Racers’ D-1 record is 8-0.  That’s why it will be difficult for Murray State to earn a protected seed.

Time to reveal the names behind the numbers.  See if it changes your opinion of how you ranked them …

Team A: Florida … Team B: Illinois … Team C: Creighton … Team D: San Diego State … Team E: Washington … Team F: St. Mary’s … Team G: Kansas State … Team H: Southern Mississippi

The purpose of the exercise isn’t to make you change your mind.  Rather, it’s designed to provide an insight into a team’s evaluation without the potential bias associated with the name on the jersey.  Hopefully, you found the exercise informative.

Missouri grabs final No. 1 seed in post Super Bowl bracket …

With the Super Bowl behind us, college basketball takes center stage.  The Missouri Tigers grabbed the spotlight Saturday night in Columbia by beating Kansas.  That victory, combined with an earlier win at Baylor, vaults Mizzou to No. 4 on the s-curve and into the final No. 1 seed position  in our latest bracket.  North Carolina is right behind, joining Baylor, Kansas and Duke as two-seeds. Syracuse (East), Kentucky (South), and Ohio State (Midwest) remain as top seeds.

February 6 Bracket Projection

Schedule of key games this week

The lower end of the bracket continues to be somewhat fluid.  As we’re at or past the midpoint of conference play, league standings are becoming more important. We’re also beginning to distinguish between schedule strength within the conference.  All of those factors are at play in today’s outlook.  Xavier, Mississippi, NC State, and Miami-FL are headed to Dayton as First Four participants.  Those just missing: Northwestern, Arkansas, Pittsburgh, Colorado State, and Arizona.

Of those, Pittsburgh is the most interesting case.  How much consideration will the Selection Committee give to the Panthers now that Tray Woodall is back from injury?  Pitt has won four straight and is playing more like the team we expected.  The Panthers have two winnable road games this week, in what figures to be a significant seven-day stretch.  Miami is another team trending in the right direction, having won four straight as well – most notably Sunday’s victory at Duke.   The Hurricanes are also one of the few teams under consideration without a sub-100 RPI loss.

Arkansas has quality home wins over Mississippi State, Michigan, and Vanderbilt, but the Razorbacks are 0-6 in road games.  That’s the type of statistic that will show poorly on Selection Sunday.

With the exception of Temple, the Atlantic 10 has seen some of its best at-large hopefuls hit significant road bumps.  Despite a series of good wins, Dayton has lost four straight and is below the horizon within the league.  Xavier blew a late lead at Memphis and sits squarely on the bubble.  Massachusetts – much like Dayton – lost a game to RPI-killing Rhode Island.

This week’s schedule includes a premium of important games.  Sit back and enjoy.