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Inside the Bracket: Six games to track this weekend

November 15, 2013 Leave a comment

dave1It’s a busy second weekend of college hoops.  There are six games that look particularly intriguing.  And it’s certainly possible that at least a couple could have bracket implications (seeding or selection) down the line.  Let’s take a look:

Ohio State at Marquette – Could be the best game on the docket.  If LaQuinton Ross proves to be a reliable scorer, the Buckeyes can challenge Michigan State in the Big Ten race.  They also need consistent play from Sam Thompson and Lenzelle Smith, Jr.  While guard play is a work in progress for the Golden Eagles, Davante Gardner and Chris Otule anchor a solid front line for Marquette.  This type of non-conference victory will look good on either team’s resume.

Michigan at Iowa State – Mitch McGary (back) has yet to play for the Wolverines, who are hoping for a return trip to the Final Four.   Iowa State just missed the Field of 68 in our preseason projection, but the Cyclones could easily work their way into the bracket if Fred Hoiberg once again blends some new pieces together.  Neither team has been challenged, but a victory would be a particularly nice boost for ISU.  The Cyclones have a tough trip to BYU next week.

Indiana State at Notre Dame – After losing a 16-point halftime lead and falling at Belmont on Thursday, Indiana State could use a bounce-back victory in South Bend. Other than a game at Saint Louis in December, the Sycamores’ non-conference schedule doesn’t offer many chances for bracket-worthy wins.  ISU allowed Belmont to score 63 second-half points.  They’ll have to tighten up the defense to have a chance against the Irish. Read more…

Categories: Current Updates

Inside the Bracket: Take-aways from the Big Ten/ACC

December 3, 2011 Leave a comment

Welcome to Bracketville

The Big Ten won its third straight Big Ten-ACC Challenge.  While that may help the league’s overall perception, teams earn NCAA bids, not conferences.  Here are a few bracket-related observations from this year’s Challenge:

Ohio State is playing like a No. 1 seed.  While the Buckeyes have yet to leave Value City Arena, they dominated Duke by 22 points.  This was the same Duke team which defeated Michigan and Kansas enroute to another Maui title.  The Blue Devils had also compiled wins over Michigan State and Belmont.  When you add in OSU’s victory over Florida on November 15, the Buckeyes begin December with eyes on a No. 1 seed.  A trip to Kansas on December 10 will be OSU’s first true road test.

Indiana could be an NCAA team.  The Hoosiers’ schedule hasn’t featured any heavyweights (yet), but IU has a balanced attack that creates problems for opposing defenses.  Pulling out a tough road win at NC State is a promising sign for a team that didn’t win a single road game last year.  The Hoosiers host Kentucky on December 10.  Beating the Wildcats would likely allow IU to enter Big Ten play without a loss.

So could North Carolina State.  The Wolfpack were supposed to be a year away, but as witnessed against Indiana, NC State has the talent to be an NCAA contender.  They rank 18th in the nation in assists, a great sign of team play, as is a team field goal percentage of .417 – also a Top 50 stat.  With non-conference games at Stanford and vs. Syracuse still on the schedule, the Wolfpack have the chance for a resume-building win ahead of ACC play.

Illinois has found a floor leader.  Bradley tranfer Sam Maniscalco has given the Illini the type of leadership and mental toughness missing the past couple of seasons.  The senior leads Illinois in scoring (13.3 ppg),  FT percentage (88%), and 3-point percentage (41.9).  He scored 24 in a comeback win at Maryland.  There are a lot of new faces in Champaign, and the Illini won’t challenge for a Big Ten title, but there’s no reason to think a Top 6 finish and NCAA bid is out of reach. Read more…

Categories: Current Updates, Team News

Inside the Bracket: Post-marathon resume Builders and Blunders…

November 16, 2011 Leave a comment

Welcome to Bracketville

With the 24-hour ESPN College Basketball Tip-Off Marathon complete,  here are a few post-marathon resume notes from the season’s opening 10 days …

RESUME BUILDERS:  Akron, Cleveland State and Kent State all compiled impressive road wins.  It’s been a while since the Mid-American Conference put two teams in the NCAA Tournament, so the fact that Akron and Kent State both have strong out-of-conference wins this early is significant.  Akron won at Mississippi State (SEC) and Kent State at West Virginia (Big East).  Cleveland State owns the biggest upset to date – taking down Vanderbilt in Nashville.  In other Horizon League action, Detroit missed an opportunity at Notre Dame.  The good news is the Titans still have multiple chances to still make non-conference statements (@Alabama, Mississppi State most notably). CSU’s schedule doesn’t provide the same BCS resume-building opportunities, so beating Vandy was huge.  On a side note: Cleveland State plays both Akron and Kent State. 

In the Missouri Valley, Evansville rallied to beat Butler.  If the Aces can back it up with a win over Indiana (tonight), that’s even better.  Northern Iowa traveled over 3,000 miles in 60 hours – winning a big road game at Old Dominion before falling at St. Mary’s.  A 50-50 split is pretty solid.  MVC favorites Creighton and Wichita State haven’t been tested yet.  But that changes soon – as Creighton plays UAB, Iowa, and San Diego State in its next four games. Wichita State has chances in Puerto Rico this week.

Drexel posted a solid victory (with a 6:00 a.m. tip) at Rider on Tuesday. 

Belmont looked and played like an NCAA team during a brutal two-game road swing.  That’s why we’ll consider the Bruins’ two losses as resume builders.  One would think a single-point loss at Duke and a solid showing at Memphis would hold some weight if the Bruins falter in the Atlantic Sun Tournament.  That said, Belmont’s toughest remaining non-conference opponent is probably Marshall.  Beating the Herd, a potential NCAA team, would certainly be helpful.   Read more…

Categories: Current Updates, Team News

UNC, UK headline Preseason Bracket Projection

November 1, 2011 Leave a comment

Welcome to Bracketville

March is five months away.  Thousands of college basketball games will be played before Selection Sunday.  Yet two things seem pretty clear in early November.  North Carolina and Kentucky are loaded, and the Tar Heels and Wildcats are heavy favorites to reach the Final Four in New Orleans.  So it’s no surprise that UNC and UK are the top two teams in our preseason bracket projection.

2012 PRESEASON BRACKET PROJECTION

From there, it gets interesting.  Debates rage across the internet and college hoops magazines about the next group of teams.  Defending champion Connecticut returns a host of talent, as does 2011 top seed Ohio State.  Other teams in the early running for No. 1 seeds: Syracuse and DukeFlorida and Vanderbilt both have the talent to challenge Kentucky in the SEC.  Louisville and Pittsburgh are potential threats to the Orange and Huskies in the Big East.  Memphis has the horses to dominate an improved Conference USA.

There are also plenty of good mid-major programs to watch.  Belmont could be an at-large candidate if it navigates an opportunistic non-conference schedule.  Detroit will test Butler in the Horizon League.  As many as three or four teams could push for bids from the Colonial and Atlantic 10.  Both the Missouri Valley and Mid-American have multiple bid options.  In all, our preseason projection has two teams each from the Colonial, MVC, and Horizon.  Hopefully, we’ll see that – or more – play out next Spring.

Further down the bracket, it’s educated guesswork … Last 5 teams IN: Virginia, Minnesota, Wichita State, Drexel, St. Louis.  First 5 teams OUT:  Notre Dame, BYU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s.  The next group includes Kent State, VCU, Indiana, Old Dominion, and Central Florida.  None of these would be huge surprises.  That’s the beauty of college hoops.  We play the games and what happens on the court matters more than public opinion.

Here’s to a great season.  Let’s enjoy the ride to Selection Sunday.

Categories: Current Updates

North Carolina tops 2011-12 Preseason Power 24

October 31, 2011 Leave a comment

Welcome to Bracketville

With the start of college hoops season just a week away, it’s no surprise that North Carolina tops our Preseason Power 24 at Bracketville.  Kentucky, Connecticut, and Ohio State are right behind.

One can debate whether UConn or Ohio State should be switched.  Fair-minded people can also discuss North Carolina and Kentucky.  But with a host of experience back, the Tar Heels are early favorites to cut down the nets in New Orleans.  UK, UConn, and Ohio State should challenge, as will a handful of others.  Spots 5-10 look like this … Syracuse, Duke, Memphis, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Louisville.

Cautious optimism is always wise.  If we’ve learned anything the past few years it’s that preseason expectations and on-court performance aren’t always the same.  We’ve also seen talented teams struggle early as they learn to play together.  Because we have no real evidence, preseason rankings are merely a starting point.  Thankfully, come March, what matters is actual results.  Sure, we’ll have our debates about a few teams, but the tournament will be great because we play the games.

I’m excited about another journey toward Selection Sunday.  Thanks for your interest.  Follow along here and at NBC Sports.com.

Categories: Current Updates

North Carolina, Kentucky headline off-season Power 24

Welcome to Bracketville

With the entry deadline for the 2011 NBA Draft behind us, time for an updated Power 24 here at Bracketville.  The first two selections were pretty easy: North Carolina and Kentucky.  Harrison Barnes and a host of other talented Tar Heels return to Chapel Hill.  UNC came within a game of the Final Four this past March, and Carolina should be an early favorite to cut down the nets in 2012.  Close behind is Kentucky.  Yes, the Wildcats lost Brandon Knight, but Terrence Jones decided to stay and will be joined by yet another top-flight recruiting class.

If you think of the Top 4 teams as potential No. 1 seeds, the remaining slots belong to Syracuse and Ohio State.  The Orange return a host of talent and figure to open play in November as the Big East favorite.  Once Jared Sullinger decided to stay in Columbus, the Buckeyes became the team to beat in the Big Ten – again.

The rest of the Top 10 looks like this … Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, Vanderbilt, Arizona, and Memphis.

Wisconsin opens at No. 11 thanks to Jordan Taylor staying in Madison.  The Badgers are followed by Kansas, Alabama, Michigan and Florida in the Top 15.  Then we find Marquette, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Xavier and Missouri rounding out the Top 20.  The Big East will be good again – but not as strong as this past season.

Our final Power 24 spots go to … Florida State, Texas, Gonzaga, and UCLA.

You could easily make a case for several other teams.  Others considered were Baylor, Texas AM, George Mason, Michigan State, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Temple, Georgetown, Georgia, Colorado, and Butler.  Butler will again be good, but it’ll be hard to replace to replace both Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard.

Inside the Bracket: No. 1 seed contenders …

March 5, 2011 Leave a comment

Welcome to Bracketville

Selection Sunday is quickly approaching.  While the bottom of the bracket remains highly volatile, the No. 1 seed contenders are taking shape.  We have four front-runners with eight total teams remain in the hunt.  Keep in mind that a team’s entire body of work is examined by the Selection Committee.  So one good week in early March isn’t justification for a No. 1 seed.  Here’s a look at the contenders …

Ohio State – The Buckeyes are a lock.  OSU could potentially lose its spot in the East Region, but I can’t imagine a scenario in which the Buckeyes fall off the top line.  OSU’s only two losses are at Wisconsin and at Purdue – both are in line for top-three seeds.  The Buckeyes are 15-2 vs. the RPI Top 100 and beat Florida and Florida State on the road.

Pittsburgh – The Panthers lead the Big East and have been very consistent throughout the season.  Pitt also has a non-conference victory over Texas on its resume and six Top 25 RPI wins.  While not yet a lock, the Panthers control their path to a top seed in the East or Southeast.  They may not have to win the Big East Tournament title, but they do need to avoid back-to-back losses to end the season.   Their worst loss is Tennessee (neutral court).

Kansas – Kansas sits at No. 1 in the RPI (for what that’s worth) and has 17 wins vs. Top 100 teams – best in the nation.  The Jayhawks also own the inside track to a Big 12 regular-season title.  Why is Kansas not a lock?  Only because there is the potential to be bumped should they lose a couple of games this next week and other teams below them excel.  Kansas’ losses are to Texas at home and Kansas State on the road.

Duke – The Blue Devils close their regular season at North Carolina.  A victory would give them the outright ACC title.  A loss would leave Duke tied with Carolina pending the ACC Tournament.  While Duke’s overall body of work is better to this point, if the Blue Devils were to lose twice to UNC in the next week, their odds to stay on the top line would certainly diminish.  Duke is 14-3 vs. the Top 100.  It’s best non-conference wins are Kansas State and Temple. Read more…

Categories: Current Updates, Team News
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