Seton Hall, West Virginia among biggest movers in January 9 bracket

Another week closer to Selection Sunday, and Seton Hall and West Virginia are the week’s biggest movers.  Michigan State and Indiana also climb, anchoring 2-seeds in the East (Indiana) and Midwest (Michigan State).  Our No. 1 seeds remain the same: Syracuse, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State.  Baylor would be next in line.

Bracket Projection - January 9

Power 24 – January 9

Schedule of Key Games

The bracket is still very fluid.  And there’s a very fine line between the final few teams selected, and those among the first teams out.  One of the biggest factors used this week was non-conference strength-of-schedule and overall strength-of-schedule.  Those number can play a key role among those final teams.  So if you’re wondering why a team like Cincinnati remains out – besides a lack of quality wins – look no further than a non-conference SOS that ranks No. 317 – among the bottom 25 in college hoops.  Other teams with that issue include Oregon State (No. 325) and Wyoming (No. 318).  We’ll have more on that later during an Inside the Bracket column.

We’ll also talk more about the Pac-12, which retains three teams this week, but none higher than a 10-seed: Stanford.  Arizona is among our Last 5 teams in.  Could those teams win a game or two?  Absolutely.  Washington is very talented, too  But the Huskies have to make the Field of 68 first.

The Big Ten remains the conference leader (No. 1 in the RPI) and has eight teams in the bracket today.  Minnesota (now 0-4 in the Big 10) drops out; and Northwestern is just one line on the s-curve above the play-in games in Dayton.  That’s largely due to an early win over Seton Hall and no bad losses.  That said, the Wildcats will not make the NCAAs if they continue to lose home games.

Enjoy the latest bracket.  More to come this week.

Big Ten dominates the latest Power 24 update

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By most statistical measures, the Big Ten is the No. 1 conference through the first month-plus of the season.  The league is first in the RPI, first in overall winning percentage, and its teams have compiled wins over top teams in other BCS conferences.  Thus, it’s no real surprise the Big Ten has six teams in this week’s Power 24 – led by Ohio State, which stays at No. 2.  Yes, the Buckeyes lost at Kansas but Jared Sullinger didn’t play.  Winning at KU is tough at full strength, so not having a potential first team All-American on the floor is a valid consideration.

December 12 – Power 24

Kentucky stays at No. 1.  Even though the Wildcats played a rather poor first half in Bloomington, they fought back and nearly pulled out a huge road victory.  No reason to drop UK for a one-point loss in an extremely hostile environment.  Syracuse holds firm at No. 3.  It would have been easy to move the Orange into the No. 1 spot once UK and OSU lost.  Syracuse may well prove to be the best team.  As of Monday, however, the Orange had yet to play a true road game.  We’ll re-evaluate the order once ‘Cuse plays at NC State this weekend.

Indiana and Illinois join the rankings this week.  Memphis and Arizona fall out.  Arizona remains close thanks to a tight road loss at Florida.  Memphis has tossed aside most of its non-conference chances, and will have a difficult time challenging for a Top 5 seed in March.  Congratulations to Murray State on its win at Memphis Sunday.  The Racers begin the week at No. 32 on the S-curve.  That would be an 8-seed.  Quite an accomplishment for a team from the Ohio Valley Conference.

 

North Carolina tops 2011-12 Preseason Power 24

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With the start of college hoops season just a week away, it’s no surprise that North Carolina tops our Preseason Power 24 at Bracketville.  Kentucky, Connecticut, and Ohio State are right behind.

One can debate whether UConn or Ohio State should be switched.  Fair-minded people can also discuss North Carolina and Kentucky.  But with a host of experience back, the Tar Heels are early favorites to cut down the nets in New Orleans.  UK, UConn, and Ohio State should challenge, as will a handful of others.  Spots 5-10 look like this … Syracuse, Duke, Memphis, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Louisville.

Cautious optimism is always wise.  If we’ve learned anything the past few years it’s that preseason expectations and on-court performance aren’t always the same.  We’ve also seen talented teams struggle early as they learn to play together.  Because we have no real evidence, preseason rankings are merely a starting point.  Thankfully, come March, what matters is actual results.  Sure, we’ll have our debates about a few teams, but the tournament will be great because we play the games.

I’m excited about another journey toward Selection Sunday.  Thanks for your interest.  Follow along here and at NBC Sports.com.

North Carolina, Kentucky headline off-season Power 24

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With the entry deadline for the 2011 NBA Draft behind us, time for an updated Power 24 here at Bracketville.  The first two selections were pretty easy: North Carolina and Kentucky.  Harrison Barnes and a host of other talented Tar Heels return to Chapel Hill.  UNC came within a game of the Final Four this past March, and Carolina should be an early favorite to cut down the nets in 2012.  Close behind is Kentucky.  Yes, the Wildcats lost Brandon Knight, but Terrence Jones decided to stay and will be joined by yet another top-flight recruiting class.

If you think of the Top 4 teams as potential No. 1 seeds, the remaining slots belong to Syracuse and Ohio State.  The Orange return a host of talent and figure to open play in November as the Big East favorite.  Once Jared Sullinger decided to stay in Columbus, the Buckeyes became the team to beat in the Big Ten – again.

The rest of the Top 10 looks like this … Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, Vanderbilt, Arizona, and Memphis.

Wisconsin opens at No. 11 thanks to Jordan Taylor staying in Madison.  The Badgers are followed by Kansas, Alabama, Michigan and Florida in the Top 15.  Then we find Marquette, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Xavier and Missouri rounding out the Top 20.  The Big East will be good again – but not as strong as this past season.

Our final Power 24 spots go to … Florida State, Texas, Gonzaga, and UCLA.

You could easily make a case for several other teams.  Others considered were Baylor, Texas AM, George Mason, Michigan State, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Temple, Georgetown, Georgia, Colorado, and Butler.  Butler will again be good, but it’ll be hard to replace to replace both Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard.

San Diego State continues climb in Power 24/Bracket

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Through games played December 19, we seem to have a Big 3 in college hoops – Duke, Ohio State, Kansas.  Who belongs (and in what order) in the next six spots is more heavily debated.  In our latest Power 24 (Dec. 20), Connecticut takes spot No. 4 and projects as the final No. 1 seed.  By winning a top-heavy Maui Invitational, the Huskies have a solid non-conference profile.  How the Big East plays out remains to be seen.  Note: Power 24 reflects games through December 19 only.

Three more Big East teams – Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Syracuse – arrive next.  No real argument if you have a different order.  Georgetown has done the best work overall, reflected in its No. 1 RPI ranking (through Dec. 19).  Part of the Power 24 also projects ahead, so Pitt remains a slight step in front looking forward.  Syracuse has yet to play a true road game; we have to consider that point.

Reaching No. 8 is San Diego State – putting the Aztecs in line for a No. 2 seed in the West Region.  SDSU would love games in Tucson and then Anaheim. In comparison, San Diego State has won four true road games and played six total games away from home – opening with five straight outside San Diego.  Wins at Gonzaga and over Wichita State and St. Mary’s look to be NCAA-caliber.  Their next two are in Las Vegas – making it eight road/neutral games in non-conference play.  That type of challenge will pay big dividends in March.  When you factor in the overall strength of the Mountain West – especially at the top – there’s no reason to think SDSU can’t earn a No. 2 seed.  A No. 1?  That may depend more on what happens in the Big 10, Big East, and Big 12.  What the Aztecs also need is for BYU, UNLV and New Mexico to continue playing well.  As of December 20, the Mountain West ranks No. 6 in conference RPI (according to CollegeRPI.com).

December 20 Bracket Projection

Weekly bracket updates return January 3.  Other than some seeding evaluations, not a lot of changes from the December 6 bracket.  Drexel is one new arrival, replacing Butler.  We’ll have a much better feeling about the Bulldogs’ at-large chances after the Diamond Head Classic this week in Honolulu.  The field includes Baylor, Florida State, Washington State, and Mississippi State.  Oklahoma State is the other new addition.  The once-beaten Cowboys (10-1) may not survive the Big 12, but they have done more than Cincinnati (No. 329 non-conference schedule).  The Bearcats may well regret a two-month hiatus to start the season.  With no marquis wins out-of-conference, it’ll take some hefty work in the Big East to be in the discussion on Selection Sunday.

Other teams who are just on the doorstep: Xavier, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi, VCU, Maryland, Virginia Tech, UCLA, and South Carolina.  We also can’t sleep on Marquette, Iowa State, and Missouri State.  Have a different opinion?  Rebounds always welcome.  E-mail at bracketville.hoops@gmail.com and follow on Twitter at twitter.com/BracketguyDave.