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Bracket Bits: Numbers and No. 1 seeds

BRACKET BITS

Significant conference battles headline a strong weekend of college hoops.  Vanderbilt visits Kentucky (with Vandy leading the SEC) and Kansas visits Kansas State.  Don’t forget about the Ivy League tussle between Cornell and Harvard.  Outside conference lines, Duke travels to Georgetown.  You can see the full slate of meaningful games on our Schedule page.

Our next bracket projection arrives Monday, February 1.   Too early to look closer at potential No. 1 seeds?  Uh, no.  For now, we’ll stick to eight (8) teams.  Odds are at least six will remain in the conversation a month from now during the final push toward Selection Sunday.  The goal is to make some simple comparisons about the relative strength(s) of each team’s profile.  Data is for games through Wednesday, January 28.  As always, we give credit to CollegeRPI.com for the data.  Top 50 and Top 100 refer to RPI rankings at the time of release.

  • Syracuse  |  4-1 vs. Top 50  |  12-1 vs. Top 100  | SOS: 4 | Road: 4-0
  • Villanova |  5-1 vs. Top 50  | 9-1 vs. Top 100  | SOS: 41 | Road: 6-1
  • Kansas  |  6-1 vs. Top 50  |  8-1 vs. Top 100  |  SOS: 15  | Road: 4-1
  • Kentucky |  2-0 vs. Top 50  |  5-1 vs. Top 100  | SOS: 82  | Road: 3-1
  • Texas |  4-2 vs. Top 50  |  7-2 vs. Top 100  |  SOS: 51  | Road: 3-2
  • Michigan State |  2-1 vs. Top 50  |  7-3 vs. Top 100  | SOS: 48  |  Road: 5-2
  • Duke  |  7-2 vs. Top 50  | 10-3 vs. Top 100  |  SOS: 7  | Road: 1-3
  • Kansas State  |  6-3 vs. Top 50  |  9-3 vs. Top 100  |  SOS: 5  | Road: 3-1

As the Selection Committee evaluates teams, numbers are just part of the equation.  Conference titles carry weight.  Individual perceptions of each team vary (by Committee member).  For some, schedule strength is an important factor.  For others, a dominating overall record.  Others look at the number of “quality” wins vs. the RPI and other rankings.  Some value consistency throughout the season.  Based on figures above, Kentucky has the fewest quality wins and lowest strength of schedule.  Syracuse and Duke have the most quality wins; but the Blue Devils are weaker away from home.  With a lot of basketball remaining, this picture will become clearer.

Other teams that could sneak into the conversation?  West Virginia is probably the best bet given the strength of the Big East schedule.  Georgetown perhaps.  It would take a lot more work for teams like Purdue.  If you’re wondering about a team like BYU, the Cougars just didn’t play a strong enough non-conference schedule (ranked No. 200).  As good as the Mountain West is BYU will probably top out as a No. 4 seed (perhaps a No. 3 if they win out).  Enjoy the games … rebounds are always welcome.

 

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