Archive

Archive for January 15, 2011

Reality check: Performance starting to outweigh potential

January 15, 2011 Leave a comment

Welcome to Bracketville

We’re about to have our annual reality check.  It’s the point of the college hoops season when actual performance starts to outweigh potential.  Moving forward, projected selection and seeding will become increasingly reflective of a team’s actual profile and less about what we expect (or expected) said team to achieve.   Note: until we hit Championship Week, there will always be some potential figured into bracket projections.  The goal is still to provide both a snapshot of where we are while balancing realistic possibilities.

Early in the season, the bracket is mostly about potential – what do we expect?  Then, as teams begin building actual resumes – schedule strength, wins, losses, road performance, etc – we have better guidelines to use.  For some teams, that’s good.  For others, not so much.  Here are a couple of examples.

Memphis – The Tigers opened the season as a projected No. 3 seed based on talent and the expectations of a gaudy won-loss record in Conference USA.  Since beating Miami-FL (Nov. 15), however, Memphis has missed – in some cases badly – opportunities against Kansas, Georgetown, and Tennessee.  Thus, the Tigers have one win over a potential NCAA team to date – and Miami-FL would be among a handful of bubble teams on the edge if this were Selection Sunday. Factor in UM’s loss at Southern Methodist (RPI No. 271 – from CollegeRPI.com), and it’s easy to see why the Tigers’ actual profile is far different than what we anticipated in November.  That’s not to say Memphis can’t make a run to the C-USA title, but the Tigers’ performance to date would land them outside the Field of 68.  Read more…

Categories: Current Updates, Team News