Home > Current Updates, Team News > Bracket Bits: Could Mountain West be a one-bid league?

Bracket Bits: Could Mountain West be a one-bid league?

dave1Could the Mountain West Conference (MWC) really end up a one-bid league?

It’s possible, given the current resumes of its contending teams.  Before moving forward, let’s acknowledge two things … 1) there’s a lot of basketball yet to be played; 2) we have no idea how Championship Week will play out – do we end up with an unexpected team claiming an automatic invitation by winning its league tournament?

At this juncture of the college basketball season, four Mountain West teams have realistic at-large hopes: San Diego State, Wyoming, Colorado State, and Boise State.  Only SDSU has a victory over a projected tournament team (Utah).  Against the current RPI Top 50?  The group is a combined 2-8.  Here’s a more detailed breakdown of each team’s profile (current RPI in parenthesis – per ESPN):

  • San Diego State (26) – Best NC wins: Utah, BYU, Pittsburgh  |  NC SOS: 43  |  vs. Top 100 (6-3)  |  BPI (36)  |  KenPom (25)
  • Colorado State (39) – Best NC Wins: UTEP, Colorado  |  NC SOS: 121  |  vs. Top 100 (3-2)  |  BPI (48)  |  KenPom (66)
  • Wyoming  (86) – Best NC Win: Colorado  |  NC SOS: 338  |  vs. Top 100 (3-2)  |  BPI (78)  |  KenPom (73)
  • Boise State (66) – Best NC Win: Saint Mary’s  |  NC SOS: 135  |  vs. Top 100 (2-5)  |  BPI  (86)  |  KenPom (76)

While a team’s resume also includes things like road record (etc.), the above numbers suggest that San Diego State is the most likely at-large team.  Which leads to this question: If SDSU wins the league’s automatic bid, whom else earns an at-large?

Colorado State has the next best profile, but are non-conference (NC) wins over UTEP and Colorado enough?  Wyoming is a solid squad, but its NC SOS number is a major concern;  we’ve noted that before.  It gives the Selection Committee a reason to leave the Cowboys’ home.  As for Boise State, the value of BSU’s win at Saint Mary’s is uncertain.  Can SMC make a push for at-large consideration?

The Mountain West is a good league, but it’s not as deep as it’s been in recent years –  meaning fewer opportunities for quality wins within the league rotation.  Does the Mountain West end up a one-bid league on Selection Sunday?  Probably not.  Could it happen?  Based on what we know today?  The answer is probably, yes.

Categories: Current Updates, Team News
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