Home > Current Updates > Bracketology: A bumpy ride to Selection Sunday

Bracketology: A bumpy ride to Selection Sunday

Dave2015It looks like a bumpy ride to Selection Sunday.  In a just over a week’s time, we’ve been reminded that conference games take on a different flavor.  Since Christmas, two No. 1 seeds – Villanova and UCLA – have lost league road games to quality opponents (Oregon, Butler).  Neither is a reason to panic, nor switch directions.  One could look at the SEC and believe Kentucky has a chance to run the table; same for Gonzaga in the WCC.  Other than that?  Teams are going to lose.  It happens.  It’s an important reminder that the Seed List – used by the Selection Committee to create the bracket – isn’t a poll, where a single loss (or win), is often judged above the whole.  Rather, the Seed List is a evaluation of a team’s entire body of work at a given point in time, relative to teams around it.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Were today Selection Sunday, the Committee would have some particularly tough choices. How would they handle a team like Indiana?  The Hoosiers have two stellar wins – Kansas and North Carolina.  The rest of their current resume is suspect.  Largely due to a poor
slate of non-conference home games, IU’s RPI is hovering around 130; a team with that type of number has never received an at-large bid.  What we believe – or at least suspect – is that Indiana will win enough Big Ten games to improve that number.  By contrast, IU is
29th in today’s KenPom rankings and 42nd in the ELO Chess metric.  The Hoosiers are 38th on our Seed List.  We’ll see how the next few weeks play out.

It’s early January, so things remain very fluid.  Conference play generally provides separation for seeding and selection.  Given what we’ve seen in the first week, however, a bumpy ride.  It should be fun.

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