Archive for March, 2018

Quick Takes and Picks: Region by Region

March 15, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015When the ball tips at Noon today, we’ll begin another wild, wacky, and predictably unpredictable journey to the Final Four.  Until then, we scour the Field of 68, looking for a key upset, a team we think can make an unexpected run, a big name we think we’ll lose early.

If we’ve learned anything over the years, the Madness of March cannot be predicted, regardless of algorithms, statistical metrics, and/or game simulations.  So, with that in mind, rather than offer up an individual selection of picks per game – which will be helpful to no one  – here are a few thoughts (and picks) for each Region, including my takes regarding potential dark horses and upsets (use at your own peril): Read more…


Bracket Results: How did predictions go?

March 13, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015After a night of rest, the Madness returns Tuesday night.  In advance, here’s a look at how my final bracket compared to the actual bracket and how it scored in the 2018 Bracket Matrix.

2018 Results:

  • Correctly picked 35 of 36 at-large teams (I had USC as my last team IN; Committee selected Syracuse in the First Four.  Overall, had 67/68 teams in the Field.
  • 46 teams on the correct/actual seed line.
  • 18 teams within one line of actual seed.
  • 3 teams (Providence, Creighton, West Virginia) within 2 lines.
  • Paymon Score: 357 (tied 2017)

Thanks again for your interest in Bracketville.  I’ll be posting some thoughts Wednesday about each Region.  The First Four gets started tonight.  Let the Mayhem begin.  Here’s to an incredible NCAA tournament.

Bracketology: Davidson goes Dancing

March 11, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015In what’s been a wild, unpredictable ride of a college basketball season, it’s fitting that Davidson brought a little extra mayhem to the party on Selection Sunday.  By beating Rhode Island in a thrilling Atlantic 10 championship game, Davidson punched its Dance ticket and burst the bubble of another hopeful.  Here’s how it the pieces fell together …

Bracketology  |  Seed List

Final seed adjustments were made for Kentucky and Houston; along with the last additions to the bracket.  Enjoy the Selection Show and the wonderful Madness of March.

Bracketology: Virginia reigns over Field of 68

March 11, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015While plenty of questions remain for a handful of teams on the bubble, this much we know: Virginia will be the overall No. 1 seed when the 2018 NCAA tournament bracket is revealed tonight.  The Cavaliers completed a remarkable season Saturday night by beating North Carolina in the ACC title game.  That appears to leave the No. 1 line as it was yesterday – Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, and Xavier.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

The underlying story today is Davidson, which plays Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 championship.  If the Wildcats pull off an upset, one unlucky team will be bounced from the Field as Davidson would arrive as an automatic qualifier.

Other potential variables in play today (for seeding) include results in the SEC tournament (Tennessee vs. Kentucky) and the American (Cincinnati vs. Houston).  The Committee could build alternate brackets or decide each team’s body of work is basically complete.

However it works out, we’ve reached another Selection Sunday.  Here’s to an incredible journey through the Madness of March.

Bracketology: Kansas move up, bubble tightens

March 10, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015My how things can change, right?

Kansas moves into the Midwest Region courtesy of the Jayhawks’ win over Kansas State and Xavier’s loss to Providence.  The Musketeers remain the fourth No. 1 seed this morning, shifting to the West Region.  Close behind, now, is North Carolina, which beat Duke for a second time. If the Tar Heels beat Virginia in the ACC title game, they could find themselves as a No. 1 seed come Sunday morning.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Elsewhere, the bubble has tightened thanks to some upsets – particularly in the Mountain West.  Nevada is a likely at-large candidate, meaning their loss to San Diego State opens the door for SDSU or New Mexico to grab a seat, courtesy of the league’s automatic bid.  That’s bad news for teams along the cutline.

We still have more questions than answers, but as of this morning, Arizona State slides into the First Four and hopes to hang on.  If the Committee considers the non-conference season as important as the conference season, it’s hard to ignore ASU’s wins over Kansas, Xavier, and Kansas State (not to mention San Diego State and St. John’s).   Read more…

Bracketology: So many bubble questions

March 9, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015So many bubble questions.  Where do we start?

Long waits are underway for teams like Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Baylor, and Notre Dame.  So too, now, for Middle Tennessee which exited the Conference USA tournament after an overtime loss to Southern Miss in the quarterfinals.  Thus, the Blue Raiders add themselves to what was already an intriguing group of quality at-large candidates.

Bracketology    |    Seed List

Depending on what happens today in the SEC and Pac-12 tourneys, in particular, we have about 12 teams in play for four spots.  That it’s the first year for the NCAA’s new Quadrant system only adds seasoning to the pot.  Will the Committee reward the overall excellence of Middle Tennessee who has multiple Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 wins – even if those wins aren’t power conference names?  How will the Committee handle the RPI situation of a team like Oklahoma State?  And will that same RPI effect benefit a team like Louisville?  Depending on your take, you can make legitimate cases for and/or against any of the 12.

As with the Committee, it’s time to dig beneath the surface of the bubble contenders during the next 48 hours. Come Sunday, our vantage point may change.

Bracketology: Big day for Bubble teams

March 8, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s a big day for bubble teams.  Consider these questions: Can Louisville beat Virginia?  Can Marquette beat Villanova?  Can Oklahoma State beat Kansas (for a third time)?  Can Notre Dame beat Duke?  Can Texas beat Texas Tech?  Can Alabama beat Texas AM?  Can Kansas State beat TCU?  These are just a few of the many games to ponder on what could end up being the most crucial day between now and selection weekend. We didn’t even mention Butler and Providence, both of whom could benefit from an opening-round Big East tournament win.

Bracketology     |     Seed List

How will the Selection Committee handle a resume like Oklahoma State’s?  The answer could well depend on the age-old RPI question.  And what about a team like Arizona State – or Oklahoma for that matter – who started out like a whirlwind and finished with very little much air in their sails?

The cutline will likely change, perhaps multiple times, between now and Saturday.  Nothing is locked in place.  Another busy (and likely short) night ahead.

Categories: Current Updates