Home > Bracketology, Current Updates, S-Curve, Team News > Quick Takes: NC State wraps up notable win over Auburn

Quick Takes: NC State wraps up notable win over Auburn

Dave2015It wasn’t pretty – NC State and Auburn combined for 47 turnovers – but the Wolfpack wrapped up notable win over the Tigers Wednesday night in Raleigh.  Why so notable?  To put it simply – even with early victories over Vanderbilt and Penn State on neutral courts, the Wolfpack’s resume was somewhat overshadowed by seven Group 4 victories (per NET rankings) and an associated a non-conference schedule ranked around 300.  That’s quite a feast of pre-Holiday cupcakes.  And while a victory over Auburn doesn’t change those facts, it does add validity to the large margin of victory in most of those outcomes.  Up next: a couple more pastries before an opening ACC trip to Miami on January 3.

Additional Quick Takes …

  • Buffalo continues to impress.  The Bulls won their fourth true non-conference road game after beating Syracuse at the Carrier Dome.  If they manage to knock off Marquette this weekend (Friday) in Milwaukee, the Bulls will have solidified a truly remarkable at-large profile – and it’s strong already.
  • Oklahoma’s non-conference resume continues to improve after its win over Creighton.  The Sooners are 10-1 against a Top 10 schedule (to date).  Granted, none of their victories are against high-profile Group 1 teams, but it’s still been an impressive run heading into Friday night’s visit to Northwestern.
  • Another Ugh for the Pac-12.  Cincinnati routed UCLA by 29 points, adding a third blowout loss to the Bruins’ resume.  Against its best three opponents (Michigan St, UNC, Cincy), the Bruins have lost by an average of 22 points.  Wednesday’s defeat also comes on the heels of a home loss to Belmont.
  • Arkansas has lost back-to-back home games to Western Kentucky and Georgia Tech.  The Razorbacks’ earlier one-point win over Indiana is starting to fade a bit.
  • San Francisco is getting a lot of love after a 10-1 start, and rightfully so.  The Dons lone loss is a four-point defeat to Buffalo.  But let’s also note here that eight of San Fran’s wins are against Group 4 teams (with an NC schedule rated around 290).

Thursday’s slate includes Texas Tech vs. Duke at Madison Square Garden in New York along with a sneaky-good Utah State group visiting unbeaten Houston.  Enjoy!

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  1. December 20, 2018 at 2:34 pm

    Thanks for the blurb on my Pack. I thought it was interesting that despite the victory NC State did not move up in the KenPom ranks. I think that was because KenPom’s algorithm predicted an NC State win by 2 points, so a 7 point win did not move the needle much. What it did, as you point out, was validate the ranking and the scoring margins that we enjoyed against the cupcakes. Do you know of any other rating system that includes margin of victory regardless of how big it is? I know that NET now includes it up to 10 points. Maybe that’s why NET has NC State at #8 and the old RPI still has them in the 80s. Thanks for your work!!

    • Dave Ommen
      December 22, 2018 at 11:29 am

      Tim … I’m familiar with and utilize analytics to the extent I believe the Committee does (or as best as I can guess). I’m not a mathematical whiz nor a master of how the various analytics pros such as Ken Pom, Sagarin, and others use algorithms and formulas to account for various things such as scoring margin vs the skill of the opponent, etc. There are also formulas such as ELO that math types like, too. What I do believe remains a valid form of measurement, regardless of which formula generates the ranking, are these three things: who did you play, where did you play, who did you beat. Obviously, the quality fo the opponent matters, but if there’s a knock on NC State’s resume right now, it’s the seven Group 4 home games (wins) which correlates into an non-conference SOS around 300. If the Wolfpack do well in the ACC, it won’t end up being a big deal, but could cost them a seed line somewhere. If they turn in an average league performance, and win mostly at home, then that NC SOS number could be a bigger factor come March. In other words, NC State’s effective record this morning would be 3-1 instead of 10-1, if that makes sense.

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