Home > Bracketology, Current Updates, S-Curve, Team News > Bracket Bits: Trouble brewing for Texas Tech?

Bracket Bits: Trouble brewing for Texas Tech?

Dave2015As March arrives, so does a question about the at-large status of Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders lost at home to Texas on Saturday, leaving them with some potentially risky profile numbers.  These include a 3-8 record against Quadrant 1, a 7-11 mark against Quads 1/2, and a sub-.500 total against Quads 1-3 (10-11). TTU’s remaining eight wins are against Quad 4, with seven of those coming at home against teams ranked 235 or worse in the NET.

And … the next week is no picnic.  Texas Tech travels to Baylor before ending the season at home against Kansas.  What if the Red Raiders lose both and head to the Big 12 tournament at 18-13?  Solid NET number(s) or not, that’s tricky business.

The good news: TTU’s final two games are also a blessing in disguise.  Winning could undo much, if not all, of the angst heading to Kansas City.

More Bracket Bits:

  • As for Texas, the Longhorns are squarely back in the at-large picture.  Now, it’s time to see if UT can continue its run.  The Horns are 4-7 vs. Quad 1 but just 6-11 vs. Quads 1/2 overall; that’s hardly solid territory.
  • UCLA continues to make its case for an-large bid, too, even as the Bruins enter Sunday with a half-game lead in the Pac-12 race.  Saturday’s win over Arizona gives the Bruins a season sweep of both the Wildcats and Colorado.  They also own a win over Arizona State.  If UCLA wins at USC next weekend, the Bruins will claim at least a share of the conference title.  That could be hard to overlook despite an iffy NET rating.
  • Providence won at Villanova, which is the Friars’ seventh (7th) Quad 1 win, including five against the Top Tier of Q1, bumping its average NET win under 100.  That’s impressive.  The Friars close with Xavier and DePaul at home.  If they win those, PC should rest easy on Selection Sunday.  Losing both could still be problematic, however, given PC’s overall loss total.
  • Oklahoma won at West Virginia, relieving some bubble stress for the Sooners.  Meanwhile, WVU has lost 6 of 7 and continues to see its seed slide, too.  Next up, a trip to Iowa State followed by Baylor at home.  Lose both and nervousness around Morgantown will really pick up.
  • USC beat Arizona State, which should also give the Trojans a little more breathing room.
  • Meanwhile, what to make of Arizona?  The Wildcats’ analytical metrics are strong when predictive models are used (KenPom, BPI, etc.). The Strength of Record (SOR) metric, however, is more results based and ranks the Wildcats at 41 this morning, which would be approaching a double-digit seed.  What if Arizona has a rough time with the Washington schools, ends the season with five straight losses, and then gets bumped in its opening Pac-12 game? (Editor’s update: I had initially indicated Arizona played road games; these games are at home).
  • Mississippi State won at Missouri.  While it’s not a game that moves the needle, the Bulldogs helped themselves by avoiding a loss.
  • Arkansas couldn’t get it done at Georgia.  The Hogs are now 5-11 vs. Quadrants 1/2, so even with Isaiah Joe back, they have work to do.
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