Home > Bracketology, Current Updates, S-Curve, Team News > Bracket Bits: Six teams that could still use opening round wins

Bracket Bits: Six teams that could still use opening round wins

Dave2015With Utah State securing its Dance Ticket by upsetting San Diego State in the Mountain West championship game, we already have one less at-large spot available.  The Aggies might have made it regardless, but all doubts have been erased.

With that as a backdrop, here is a corresponding disclaimer:  The Bubble extends deeper into the bracket than it appears.

As we sit today, the 11-seed line contains all four play-in participants.  That means teams along the 10-seed line are hovering perilously close to the cutline.  Which also means that the nine-seeds are close enough to the edge of the Field that a poor week could leave them vulnerable to being passed.

Below is a quick peak at six teams above the immediate fray who could still benefit from at least one victory at conference tournaments this week …

Marquette – The Golden Eagles closed the regular season by losing six of seven games. While it’s true that a team’s performance in its Last 10 contests is no longer an official selection criteria, the late collapse has left Marquette at 18-12 heading to New York.  Beating Seton Hall would secure a spot, but losing would leave MU at 18-13 with a 1-10 mark against the upper tier of Quadrant 1.

Rutgers – The Scarlet Knights greatly helped their case by winning at Purdue.  But let’s also not paint a glorious portrait of Rutgers’ performance outside The RAC.  Going 2-8 on the road and 2-10 away from home isn’t exactly overwhelming.  A loss to Michigan on Thursday (8/9 game at the Big Ten tourney) would drop Rutgers to 2-11 away from its comfort zone.  If the bubble gets squeezed that could still be an ugly mark.

Indiana – There’s been a lot of debate about the Hoosiers despite four Quad 1 wins and nine wins against Q1/2 combined.  IU’s worse loss (per the NET) is Arkansas.  The main issues are a NET rating that sits at an even 60 today and a 2-8 road record (4-8 away from Bloomington).  A win over Florida State could be a saving grace either way, but a loss to Nebraska in the opener would add a resume component the Hoosiers would rather avoid.

Florida – While the Gators boast a Top 30 NET rating and Top 20 schedule, their quality win total is a concern.  Florida is 5-9 vs. Q1 but 8-12 vs. Quads 1/2.  They also have five losses to teams that right now would fall outside the Field.  The Gators will play the winner of Ole Miss-Georgia on Thursday.  A loss would wrap up a 19-13 season with six losses to potential teams outside the bracket (and their best win away from home is South Carolina).

Oklahoma – The Sooners are likely fine either way because falling to West Virginia doesn’t do any damage.  A loss would, however, drop the Sooners to 19-13 overall, which is never the type of record that screams lock.

Arizona State – The Sun Devils limped to the finish line, losing three of four.  ASU gets the winner of Colorado and WSU in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tourney.  A loss would leave them 20-12 overall (likely still good enough) but with a 9-13 mark against the Top 2 quadrants.  If it’s a loss to WSU, it would be more problematic, obviously, as ASU’s high-end wins against NCAA teams remain on the light side.

  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: