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Quick Takes: Region by Region picks

March 16, 2022 Leave a comment

QuickTakesLet’s begin here: use the following information at our own risk.  With that caveat complete, here are my Quick Takes on each Region for the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament …

WEST REGION

Favorite: Gonzaga. The Bulldogs enter as the No. 1 overall seed and rank first in three predictive metrics (Ken Pom, BPI, Sagarin).  Last year’s National Runner-Up has a great chance to return to the Final Four.
Dark Horse: Alabama.  Lest we forget that prior to SEC play, the Crimson Tide owned victories over Gonzaga, Baylor and Houston, when the Cougars were at full strength.  They have been inconsistent since January, but a resurgent hot streak isn’t out of the equation. Read more…

Categories: Current Updates

Quick Takes: First Four Picks

March 15, 2022 Leave a comment

QuickTakesThe 2022 First Four begins tonight in Dayton with eight teams vying for four spots in the 64-team field.  After a canceled season in 2020 – and a season with games held only in Indianapolis in 2021 –  watching games at multiple locations in packed arenas rekindles great memories.  Let the Madness begin!

Here are my quick picks for the First Four:

TUESDAY: Texas Southern over Texas AM-CC
Texas Southern ranks 44 slots higher in the NET ratings and beat Florida in early December.  Predictive metrics also lean heavily in Southern’s favor – so I’m going with the Tigers to advance and face Kansas in Fort Worth. Read more…

Categories: Current Updates

Bracket Report: How did results measure up?

March 14, 2022 Leave a comment

Dave2015Ultimately, my final projection yielded solid results – although I am a little disappointed with a couple of seed line decisions (by the Committee, of course!).  Here are the basics:

  • Correctly selected 35/36 at-large teams (67/68 overall). My miss was Notre Dame/Texas AM.  I do not have a significant issue with it; Notre Dame was in until Richmond took a spot.
  • Correctly seeded 41 teams on their actual seed line.  Was hoping for a little better here.
  • Correctly seeded another 23 teams within one of their actual seed line.
  • Missed three teams (TCU, Murray State, Iowa State) by two seed lines.  The two most notable for me were Murray and Iowa State, in opposite directions.  I think Murray is a little over-seeded (not that Murray isn’t a great team), and I think Iowa State more typically fits the profile of an 8/9 team.  Other than its win total (largely against non-tournament teams), I do not see how USC would be slotted above TCU; which accomplished more on the court.
  • My goal will be to improve seeding in 2023.  There will always be a tough call somewhere along the cutline, and there is rarely a consensus among Committee members; hence the voting process.

I will share some additional thoughts about the bracket and its regions soon.  Most importantly, I express my sincere appreciation to all of you who followed along and participated here at Bracketville.  It’s an incredibly fun hobby and your interactions make the work worth it.  Thank you!

Bracket Watch: Gonzaga headlines Field of 68

March 13, 2022 Leave a comment

home-tournament-64-thumb.jpgWe’ve made it to Selection Sunday.  And to no one’s surprise, the Gonzaga Bulldogs lead the latest Field of 68, followed on the No. 1 seed line by Arizona, Kansas and Baylor.  The order became clear following Kentucky’s loss to Tennessee and the Jayhawks’ victory over Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.

Bracketology
Seed List Read more…

Bracket Report: Kansas, Kentucky move up

March 12, 2022 Leave a comment

home-tournament-64-thumb.jpgOne more day.  That’s all that stands between us and Selection Sunday.  What a ride it’s been.  And we’re not done.  We could still lose three more at-large positions with Virginia Tech, Texas AM and a potential bid thief in the Atlantic 10 still in play.

Bracketology
Seed List

Kansas and Kentucky now control their paths to the No. 1 seed line.  With Baylor losing and Kansas advancing, the Jayhawks have likely garnered another top seed.  If Kentucky wins the SEC tournament, the final spot should belong to the Wildcats.  They may earn it either way – provided they beat Tennessee today in the SEC semifinals.  Baylor remains a strong option should UK slip. Read more…