Bracketology
Welcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology.
This is where you will find bracket projections for the 2018 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication (update) the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape currently stands. Thank you for your continued interest.
UPDATED: March 11, 2018 | 5:30 p.m. (ET) – FINAL
| FIRST FOUR – DAYTON |
|
| MIDWEST REGION | Oklahoma vs. Arizona State |
| SOUTH REGION | Texas vs. USC |
| EAST REGION | CS-FULLERTON vs. LIU-BROOKLYN |
| SOUTH REGION | NC-CENTRAL vs. TX-SOUTHERN |
| SOUTH – Atlanta | EAST – Boston | |
| Charlotte | Pittsburgh | |
| 1) VIRGINIA | 1) VILLANOVA | |
| 16) NC-CENTRAL / TX-SOUTHERN | 16) CS-FULLERTON / LIU-BROOKLYN | |
| 8) Providence | 8) Virginia Tech | |
| 9) Alabama | 9) Kansas State | |
| Boise | San Diego | |
| 5) Houston | 5) Clemson | |
| 12) DAVIDSON | 12) MURRAY STATE | |
| 4) Texas Tech | 4) KENTUCKY | |
| 13) CHARLESTON | 13) BUFFALO | |
| Nashville | Wichita | |
| 6) Ohio State | 6) Miami-FL | |
| 11) Texas / USC | 11) LOYOLA-CHICAGO | |
| 3) Tennessee | 3) West Virginia | |
| 14) BUCKNELL | 14) WRIGHT STATE | |
| Detroit | Detroit | |
| 7) TCU | 7) Rhode Island | |
| 10) Creighton | 10) UCLA | |
| 2) CINCINNATI | 2) Purdue | |
| 15) PENNSYLVANIA | 15) IONA | |
| WEST – Los Angeles | MIDWEST – Omaha | |
| Pittsburgh | Wichita | |
| 1) Xavier | 1) KANSAS | |
| 16) RADFORD | 16) UMBC | |
| 8) Missouri | 8) Nevada | |
| 9) Florida State | 9) NC State | |
| San Diego | Boise | |
| 5) GONZAGA | 5) Wichita State | |
| 12) SOUTH DAKOTA ST | 12) SAN DIEGO STATE | |
| 4) ARIZONA | 4) Auburn | |
| 13) MARSHALL | 13) UNC-GREENSBORO | |
| Dallas | Dallas | |
| 6) Arkansas | 6) Florida | |
| 11) NEW MEXICO STATE | 11) Oklahoma / Arizona State | |
| 3) MICHIGAN | 3) Michigan State | |
| 14) S.F. AUSTIN | 14) MONTANA | |
| Charlotte | Nashville | |
| 7) Seton Hall | 7) Texas AM | |
| 10) St. Bonaventure | 10) Butler | |
| 2) North Carolina | 2) Duke | |
| 15) LIPSCOMB | 15) GEORGIA STATE |
| BUBBLE NOTES |
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| Last 4 Byes | Last 4 IN | First 4 OUT | Next 4 OUT |
| Butler | Texas | Saint Mary’s | Oklahoma State |
| Creighton | Oklahoma | Louisville | Syracuse |
| St. Bonaventure | Arizona State | Marquette | Notre Dame |
| UCLA | USC | Middle Tennessee | Baylor |
TOP SEED LINE: Virginia is the No. 1 overall seed – followed by Villanova, Kansas, and Xavier
Breakdown by Conference …
ACC (8): VIRGINIA, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State
SEC (8): KENTUCKY, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, Texas AM, Missouri, Alabama
BIG 12 (7): KANSAS, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma
Big East (6): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler, Providence
Big 10 (4): MICHIGAN, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State
Pac 12 (4): ARIZONA, UCLA, Arizona State, USC
American (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Atlantic 10 (3): DAVIDSON, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure
West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s
Mountain West (2): SAN DIEGO STATE, Nevada
ONE BID LEAGUES: MARSHALL (C-USA) LOYOLA-CHI (MVC), IONA (MAAC), GEORGIA STATE (SBELT), PENNSYLVANIA (IVY), MONTANA (BSKY), WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON), S.F. AUSTIN (SLND), UNC-GREENSBORO (STHN), CS-FULLERTON (BWEST), BUFFALO (MAC), LIPSCOMB (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), CHARLESTON (CAA), RADFORD (BSO), NC-CENTRAL (MEAC), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), NEW MEXICO ST (WAC), UMBC (AEAST), BUCKNELL (PAT), LIU-BROOKLYN (NEC), TEXAS-SOUTHERN (SWAC)
Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.
if last 4 teams are Washington, Texas, UCLA, and Baylor- why do you have Washington/Texas playing for a 12 seed, while UCLA and Baylor are playing for a 11 seed. Both are Pac 12/Big 12 teams, playing to go up against a SEC team. Shouldn’t the 2 higher teams be playing for a 11 and the 2 lower teams be playing for a 12?
Steve … Good Question! It’s actually a bracketing issue. First Four participants play on either Tuesday or Wednesday and thus one winner must be sent to a Thursday-Saturday site (Tuesday’s winner) and the other to a Friday-Sunday site (Wednesday’s winner). Given today’s bracket set-up, there was only one Friday site to coincide with the 11-line – and there were also conference conflict issues. So it’s not uncommon. First Four participants can be placed on any line, theoretically, although 10-12 are most common. Some depends on the Seed List and some on dates/locations as well. Committee tries to keep teams on their true seed line, but there are times that doesn’t work.
Last year though, both winners went to Friday pods. Kansas St to Sacramento and USC to Tulsa. So I don’t think it’s a hard and fast rule.
It’s possible, and I don’t recall of the top of my head honestly – I’ll have to look it up. But as a general rule that would be frowned upon and likely only done if there was an overriding bracketing principle that couldn’t be handled differently. Committee has made mistakes against its own rules before; one time, I believe, they slotted BYU to a Friday-Sunday site when BYU can’t play on Sundays. Thanks for your interest!
I’ve yet to figure out why MTSU keeps ending up at 11 seeds in all the brackets. I personally fancy them way better than an 11 seed and it seems like they’re a solid candidate to make it as an at large even if they don’t win the C-USA tourney, but I must be missing something given it’s rather a consensus
Sorry for the delayed response, Brenan. MTSU is a very good basketball team, and assuming they beat Western Kentucky again tonight, their at-large profile is pretty good. The reason you’re finding the Blue Raiders in the 11-seed range is this: they went 0-3 in their non-league “up” games (Auburn, Miami, USC), meaning that unless W. Kentucky were to make it as an at-large, MTSU would be winless against at-large teams in the Field (as projected now). If MTSU were to lose to someone other than W. Kentucky on the way in, they would have a bubbly profile on paper. That could change, and if MTSU wins out, I think a 9-10 in realistic; in which case I’d take a 10 every day of the week.
As Duke & NC keep picking
up losses, is there any way either drops off the #2 line in your opinion?
Hi Doug, the short answer is yes. Carolina’s profile is still incredibly strong based on Quadrant 1 wins, just keep that in mind. Losing could still move them down, obviously, as one of them will lose this weekend. They could theoretically get passed by someone depending upon how they fare at the ACC tourney. Based on how the Committee placed them in mid-February, both have an inside track to the 2-line depending upon how they finish. We’ll see.
Arkansas wants DALLAS! Send Florida to Wichita which only holds 10,000 or less people. They ALWAYS send us so far from home! DALLAS
Hi Diana, you sound like a great Hogs fan! Unless Arkansas can climb into a top three seed (unlikely) they will positioned in the bracket based upon their final standing on the seed list, along with other bracketing principle considerations. They could literally end up in any of the pods. But I hope Dallas works out!
Hey, I run a blog about St. Bonaventure hoops…would love to do a quick Q and A with you about their chances for our site. Shoot me an email if interested! Ianrobertnolan@gmail.com
Hi Ian,
Sorry I’m just not now getting to some emails. Let me check my schedule tomorrow. I’d love to connect if I can fit it in. Dave
At this point entering post conference tournaments is there any way that Villanova, Xavier, or Virginia can get knocked off the #1 seed line? It seems to me those 3 are locks and Duke, Kansas, etc are fighting for the 4th spot.
Kevin, Virginia will be the No. 1 overall seed on Sunday. I feel confident of that. I also feel pretty confident that either Villanova or Xavier stay a No. 1. If Kansas wins the Big 12 title and Duke wins the ACC, I could see a scenario in which both the Jayhawks and Blue Devils are No. 1 seeds, meaning either Villanova or Xavier drops a line – depending upon who wins the Big East tourney. Best I can estimate right now.
Does Marquette have to beat Villanova to stay in the tournament or does a win over DePaul in the big east keep them in?
Juan, DePaul only helps Marquette tread water. To feel better, might need to be Nova. Until we know what else happens this week, hard to say. Beat the Blue Demons first, then swing for the fences.
What do you think is Butler’s chance of making the NCAA tournament with a loss to Seton Hall in the Big East tournament this Thursday? Or, maybe a better question, what would need to happen to the other bubble teams behind Butler in order for Butler to still make the NCAA tournament? Obviously, losses by all bubble teams behind Butler would be awesome, but not realistic. So I’m curious what would need to happen for them to stay in the NCAA tournament with a loss to Seton Hall (which other bubble teams could win, which bubble teams would need to lose, etc.). Unfortunately, with Butler’s play as of late, I have more confidence in teams behind Butler losing than Butler beating Seton Hall….
– A very nervous Butler fan
Don, as a Butler grad myself, nervous times. If it matters – and we’ll see – the metric models tend to like the Bulldogs. Way back in November, I thought the Bulldogs might be a bubble team – new coach, loss of some key pieces – but they’ve had a solid season. That said, another loss to Seton Hall leaves them more vulnerable, no question. Win and I think in. Lose and it’s wait and see what else transpires.
As long as Texas picks up a win over Iowa State on Wednesday night, are they pretty safe to at least be a last four in team?
I would think so, yes. No guarantees if things get really quirky, but I would like the Longhorns’ chances if they beat Iowa State. Might still get in without a win, but could get more risky.
Do you think the BIG 10 champs Michigan could get higher/lower than a 3 seed? Depending on other conferences obviously.
Hi Kevin,
I think Michigan’s seed could end up as a 3 or 4 depending upon what happens this week. Not much chance to get to the 2-line. I think 3 is the ceiling and 5 at the lowest if the Committee ends up balking at the Big Ten overall. But I think the 3/4 line is a pretty good bet.