Bracketology
Welcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology.
This is where you will find bracket projections for the 2019 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication (update) the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape currently stands. Thank you for your continued interest.
Championship Week: Teams in all CAPS reflect automatic bid (exceptions made to traditional teams with acronyms (VCU, UCF, etc.)
UPDATED: March 17, 2019 | 5:30 p.m. ET – FINAL
| FIRST FOUR – DAYTON |
|
| EAST REGION | St. John’s vs. Arizona State |
| WEST REGION | Temple vs. Ohio State |
| EAST REGION | IONA vs. FAIR-DICKINSON |
| MIDWEST REGION | NO DAKOTA ST vs. NC CENTRAL |
| EAST – Washington, DC | SOUTH – Louisville | |
| Columbia | Columbia | |
| 1) DUKE | 1) Virginia | |
| 16) IONA / FDU | 16) PRAIRIE VIEW | |
| 8) Ole Miss | 8) Seton Hall | |
| 9) UCF | 9) Baylor | |
| Hartford | Hartford | |
| 5) VILLANOVA | 5) Kansas State | |
| 12) LIBERTY | 12) MURRAY STATE | |
| 4) IOWA STATE | 4) Purdue | |
| 13) NORTHEASTERN | 13) VERMONT | |
| Tulsa | Salt Lake City | |
| 6) CINCINNATI | 6) Maryland | |
| 11) Arizona St / St. John’s | 11) VCU | |
| 3) LSU | 3) Texas Tech | |
| 14) YALE | 14) SAINT LOUIS | |
| Des Moines | Columbus | |
| 7) Louisville | 7) BUFFALO | |
| 10) Oklahoma | 10) Washington | |
| 2) Michigan | 2) Tennessee | |
| 15) COLGATE | 15) GARDNER-WEBB | |
| WEST – Anaheim | MIDWEST – Kansas City | |
| Salt Lake City | Jacksonville | |
| 1) Gonzaga | 1) North Carolina | |
| 16) AB CHRISTIAN | 16) NC CENTRAL / ND STATE | |
| 8) Minnesota | 8) Iowa | |
| 9) Syracuse | 9) UTAH STATE | |
| San Jose | San Jose | |
| 5) Virginia Tech | 5) Marquette | |
| 12) NEW MEXICO ST | 12) SAINT MARY’S | |
| 4) Wisconsin | 4) Kansas | |
| 13) UC-IRVINE | 13) OLD DOMINION | |
| Jacksonville | Tulsa | |
| 6) Mississippi State | 6) AUBURN | |
| 11) Temple / Ohio State | 11) OREGON | |
| 3) Florida State | 3) Houston | |
| 14) GEORGIA STATE | 14) NORTHERN KENTUCKY | |
| Des Moines | Columbus | |
| 7) Nevada | 7) WOFFORD | |
| 10) Florida | 10) TCU | |
| 2) MICHIGAN STATE | 2) Kentucky | |
| 15) MONTANA | 15) BRADLEY |
| BUBBLE NOTES |
|||
| Last 4 Byes | Last 4 IN | First 4 OUT | Next 4 OUT |
| Washington | Ohio State | Belmont | NC Greensboro |
| TCU | Temple | NC State | Furman |
| Florida | St. John’s | Indiana | Xavier |
| VCU | Arizona State | Alabama | Texas |
TOP SEED LINE: Duke is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Virginia, North Carolina, and Gonzaga
Breakdown by Conference …
Big 10 (8): MICHIGAN STATE, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State
SEC (7): AUBURN, Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Florida
ACC (7): DUKE, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse
BIG 12 (7): IOWA STATE, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU
Big East (4): VILLANOVA, Marquette, Seton Hall, St. John’s
American (4): CINCINNATI, Houston, UCF, Temple
Pac 12 (3): OREGON, Washington, Arizona State
Mountain West (2): UTAH STATE, Nevada
West Coast (2): SAINT MARY’S, Gonzaga
Atlantic 10 (2): SAINT LOUIS, VCU
Southern (1): WOFFORD
Mid American (1): BUFFALO
ONE BID LEAGUES: BRADLEY (MVC), IONA (MAAC), OLD DOMINION (C-USA), GEORGIA STATE (SBELT), YALE (IVY), MONTANA (BSKY), NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON), ABILENE CHRISTIAN (SLND), UC-IRVINE (BWEST), LIBERTY (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), NORTHEASTERN (CAA), GARDNER-WEBB (BSO), NC CENTRAL (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC), VERMONT (AEAST), COLGATE (PAT), FAIRLEIGH-DICKINSON (NEC), PRAIRIE VIEW (SWAC)
Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.
Great work! Interesting to see Auburn a 7. Any specific reasoning?
Sorry I’m getting back with you so late. Basically, Auburn’s resume doesn’t match some of its analytics and metrics, if that makes sense. And Auburn’s loss at home to Kentucky yesterday only further’s the Team Sheet disparity. They are 0-4 vs. Group 1 and of their Group 2 wins, only the home win over Washington would quality as an “at-large field win” right now. That’s not to say wins over teams like Murray State, Arizona, and Xavier aren’t relevant (for example), but all would be bubble teams; and even Washington would be in that category. In other words, they need a couple of “move the needle” wins to cement their resume and prove they can beat NCAA-level competition.
A little confuses and I understand other teams can improve their resume as well, but ASU now 14-5 and won 3 in a row with the most Q1 wins in the Pac12, yet you now drop them from a 11 seed to the last 4 in and a play in game? Arizona loses 2 out of 3 and goes from out to last 4 in? Appreciate the education man, and Lunardi sucks! Lmao!
Sorry the late response. It was more a case of how teams them fared in the process as I recall. Long story short and after the fact, I know. No teams play in a vacuum, so resumes are affected and in contrast to the others around them and who they are compared against during a point in time.
Do you know if the committee is going to do another Feb top 16 bracket show like they have the last 2 years ?
Good question. Answer: I don’t know.
Great site – Heard you on Mitch Unfiltered – I was curious if the Zags do become a 1 seed will they still play in Salt LK or would they play in San Jose?
That would depend on Gonzaga’s choice, honestly. My guess is they would chose Salt Lake. Believe its geographically closer, too.
What a game Wofford wins in OT over ETSU in a great great game. It be awesome if somehow the Southern got in 2 teams. The top 4 teams are very good I mean Furman the 4th best team won at Nova for crying out load. A shame these teams basically have to be perfect in their league to even sniff at large shot.
Was wondering about NC State. Only good win is a home win against Auburn. They have proven that can’t beat any of the good teams on their schedule. Is it because of such a weak bubble this year?
To a certain extent, yes. NC State’s profile is hanging in there because there are fewer options. Beyond their lack of high-end wins, their non-conference schedule ranks as one of the worst in D1. The Committee has dismissed teams like that before if they end up on the bubble. So it’s up the NC State to solidify its status over the next three weeks or risk living dangerously during Selection Week.
Yesterday you had the East playing the West today you have the East playing the Midwest can you please explain that. Thank You
Donald, the reason was this: following Virginia’s home loss to Duke on Saturday, Gonzaga moved ahead of UVA on the Seed List, in essence they switched positions. That means the West Region was paired with the South (No. 2 vs. No. 3 on Seed List) and the East (Duke No. 1) would be paired with the West (UVA No. 4). With the Cavs win at UNC this week, that could re-flip tomorrow, we’ll see.
explain to me exactly how the number 1 team in the big 12 is a 6 seed and kansas is a 3 and iowa state, who lost at home to kansas state is a 5?
I’ll try to be brief … Kansas’ overall profile is superior – 9 Q1 wins, No. 1 SOS, non-conference wins over Tennessee, Michigan State, Villanova, Marquette, as examples. Teams are ranked on the seed list based on overall body of work, not conference standing, per se. Kansas State was the Top 5 seed today, could have been on the 4 line. Committee revealed its Top 16 last Saturday and made no mention of the Wildcats as a contender for the 4 line, making me think they would have been closer to the 6. So we’re working from there. Iowa State was No. 13 on their seed list before loss to TCU, so they dropped to 16 on my list today, but again, working with what they gave us. Personally, I think ISU’s seeding was a little off, but the goal here is to replicate the committee, so that’s where we’re at. Individual head-to-head results are only a small part of team’s profile and really aren’t that important; more to fans than to the committee. Hope this helps a little and thanks for following along.
This thing with Nevada(a team ranked in top 10 all year #6 right now) as # 4 is ridiculous and biased. Did anybody of these “experts” have seen this team playing? It’s OK we like it this way. If we stay in the West nobody will stop us until the FF.
Hi Peter … First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. As you probably know, the Selection Committee revealed its initial Top 16 by Region a couple of Saturday’s ago. At that time, they had Nevada as 4-seed; most likely because their schedule has provided limited opportunities for Elite level wins. As our goal here is to try our best to replicate what we think the Committee will do, we are working with what they gave us. We can all have valuable opinions as to seed list ranking; in fact there are probably varied opinions in the Committee room. As I’m sure you’re aware, too, the AP rankings are not a criteria for selection or seeding, per NCAA guidelines. Thanks again for your interest!
Do you think Butler needs to win either at Marquette or at Villanova to secure an at large? Or do you think going 3-2 (wins over Xavier, Providence twice, losses to Marquette and Villanova) can still get them in? Maybe need a Big East tournament win in that scenario? It would put them at 9-9 in Big East conference play. I know a lot of it also depends on what other bubble teams do, but just curious as to your thoughts.
Thanks! Keep up the awesome work!
Hi Andrew … Thanks for your interest. My best opinion at this point in time is that Butler needs to beat Marquette or Villanova at some point – could be in the BE tourney. Would a sweep of the three you mentioned plus beating St. John’s a second time on a neutral court (BE tourney) be enough? Maybe. It might be a 50-50 proposition. Winning away from home as been an issue for the Dawgs this season. At some point, they are going to have to prove they can win a meaningful game outside of Hinkle. We’ll see how things look in three weeks.
You have too many teams playing in Columbus. My guess is that you meant to have UVA playing in Columbia.
That was merely an oversight and was corrected on Monday. Thanks for following.
Where is IU?
Tyler, Indiana is still a few spots from the Next Four out because they are only one game above .500 – no team with that type of overall record has ever received an at-large bid before.
Great work. Question: if Kansas is your top 4 seed (per your seed list), then shouldn’t they go to the Midwest (Kansas City) instead of the East (DC)? The Big 12 tournament is there but conference tournaments do not count towards the 3 game max for a team to play at a venue.
Hi Steve, thanks for your interest! Kansas was moved East to balance the regions; Michigan State was the lowest 2 and LSU the third lowest 3 seed. That happens on lines 3 and 4 sometimes; even though it can affect bracket preference. Kansas couldn’t go West because Texas Tech was there – also to balance the regionals; Midwest would be Tech’s normal region, too.
Thanks for the reply.
Xavier would be in the conversation; but so much depends on what else happens around them. This week and next are big for X and several others in the Big East and beyond. Thanks for your interest.
With the new NET ratings, I am hoping the committee shows more love to the Mid-Majors like Belmont, Furman and UNC Greensboro for at large bids, and stops rewarding high-majors just because of conference play. Not until the big schools start hitting the road to play mid-major schools should they be given such preferential treatment. The best part of March Madness is the smaller schools (ala Loyola) making a run, rather than watching Texas play Florida (Yawn).
We can agree that at least hopes this year’s quality mid-majors are given adequate consideration. No one is suggesting we should just “allow teams in” because they are mid-majors; rather, there needs to be adequate debate knowing the inherit difference in opportunities.
This bracket looks good. So looking through and seeing your knowledge of the teams fighting for a spot, is there any chance South Carolina could squeak in with a close loss to either Tennessee or Kentucky in the SEC Championship if they were to get there?
Hi Hank,
South Carolina might make the consideration board, but they, too, would basically be .500 at that point. I believe the Gamecocks have to win the auto bid to make it. That’s my best assessment at the moment.