Bracketology

64-thumbWelcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology. This is where you will find bracket projections for the 2015 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication (update) the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape stands. The closer we get to Selection Sunday, the bracket reflects a more season ending today approach.

UPDATED: March 2, 2015

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid.  In the event of a tie in the loss column, RPI is the first tiebreaker used. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced last year. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Boise State vs. BYU Midwest Region
  • Tulsa vs. Davidson West Region
  • TX-SOUTHERN vs. ST. FRANCIS (NY) Midwest Region
  • NORTH FLORIDA vs. BUCKNELL East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

MIDWEST – Cleveland                    EAST - Syracuse                                  
Louisville Charlotte
1) KENTUCKY 1) VIRGINIA
16) ST. FRANCIS / TX-STHERN 16) NO FLORIDA / BUCKNELL
8) VCU 8) DAYTON
9) Purdue 9) Xavier
Seattle Jacksonville
5) North Carolina 5) West Virginia
12) S.F. Austin 12) MURRAY STATE
4) Iowa State 4) Arkansas
13) IONA 13) LOUISIANA TECH
Louisville Pittsburgh
6) Butler 6) Providence
11) Boise State / BYU 11) Texas AM
3) Notre Dame 3) Maryland
14) TOLEDO 14) NC-CENTRAL
Columbus Omaha
7) St. John’s 7) Iowa
10) Oklahoma State 10) Cincinnati
2) WISCONSIN 2) KANSAS
15) GEORGIA STATE 15) ALBANY
WEST – Los Angeles SOUTH – Houston                        
Pittsburgh Charlotte
1) VILLANOVA 1) Duke
16) SACRAMENTO ST 16) NORTHEASTERN
8) SAN DIEGO ST 8) Ohio State
9) LSU 9) Georgia
Columbus Portland
5) WICHITA STATE 5) Northern Iowa
12) Tulsa / Davidson 12) WOFFORD
4) Louisville 4) Utah
13) VALPARAISO 13) HARVARD
Jacksonville Omaha
6) Georgetown 6) SMU
11) NC State 11) Colorado State
3) Baylor 3) Oklahoma
14) HIGH POINT 14) UC-DAVIS
Portland Seattle
7) Michigan State 7) Indiana
10) Mississippi 10) Oregon
2) ARIZONA 2) GONZAGA
15) NEW MEXICO ST 15) SO DAKOTA ST

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kentucky is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Virginia, Duke, and Villanova. Next in line: Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Texas AM, Boise State, BYU, Tulsa, Davidson

First Five teams out (at large): Illinois, Temple, Old Dominion, UCLA, Stanford

Next five teams out (at large): Pittsburgh, Miami-FL, Texas, Rhode Island, Connecticut

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (7): Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

ACC (6): Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State

Big East (6): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Xavier

SEC (6): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas AM

American (3): SMU, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Pac 12 (3): Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Mountain West (3): San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State

Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton, VCU, Davidson

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Northern Iowa

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech

ONE BID LEAGUES: Georgia State (SBELT), Harvard (IVY), Sacramento State (BSKY), Valparaiso (HZN), S.F. Austin (SLND), Wofford (STHN), UC-Davis (BWEST), Toledo (MAC), Iona (MAAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Murray State (OVC), Northeastern (CAA), High Point (BSO), NC-Central (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Albany (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), St. Francis – NY (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)

  1. Friar Fran
    January 2, 2015 at 3:40 pm

    No Providence in your field? Don’t sleep on the Friars

  2. t-dogs
    February 27, 2015 at 9:31 am

    Any chance of Chattanooga beating Wofford in the SoCon finals and that becoming a 2 bid league?

    • Dave Ommen
      February 28, 2015 at 6:49 am

      Remote chance. I wouldn’t say impossible, but a variety of scenarios would likely have to unfold.

  3. March 2, 2015 at 12:39 pm

    Dave, love most of your projections. Were close on almost every team. My question would be on Xavier and why you have them at a 9 seed. I’m seeing a team with 12 losses, best wins are at Georgetown and home vs. Providence. Bad losses. Losses at Auburn, At DePaul, Creighton, LBSU (N), UTEP (N), and At Seton Hall. And only a 8-9 Big East record. Doesn’t this scream 11 seed or play-in game to you?

    • Dave Ommen
      March 2, 2015 at 6:11 pm

      Rocco … thanks for checking in. On the surface, yes, a 9 seed seems a bit high. But the entire landscape has to be considered – teams behind them, etc. In another year, they might be an 11 seed (or Play-in). I do think you might be shortchanging XU’s Top 20 SOS and out-of-conference wins against Cincinnati (road/rival) along with Murray State, Stephen F. Austin, and Alabama. Are they great wins? No. But Northern Iowa only beat SF Austin by two points. Subtle things, but ones that make a difference. For example, if you change the category to Top 70, Xavier has seven wins against that group. All that said, Xavier is still a “bubble” team at this point. Looking okay, but I wouldn’t want lose to Creighton and then drop the first game of the Big East tourney. We have a lot of teams with double-digit losses, some of them will make it in. It’s also worth noting that Xavier has 14 Top 150 wins. By comparison, Tulsa, a current First Four member, has 5 Top 100 wins (instead of 9) and just 7 wins vs. Top 150, and an SOS around 120. There’s always not a lot of difference between a low 9 seed and the highest 11 seed.

  4. March 2, 2015 at 6:56 pm

    Good explanation there. It always helps to hear the method behind the projections. Not saying I disagree with any of it. This is a really tough year to differentiate seeds 8 thru 11/play-in. So I like to take a committee approach and discuss it with other bracketologists to come up with my final take. Really appreciate your detailed response and Im very curious to see how these bubble scenarios play out. I have a strong feeling that between A10/American/MWC/Pac12 Tournaments, that at least two bids will be stolen. Welcome to March. Cheers!

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