Bracketology

64-thumbWelcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology.

This is where you will find bracket projections for the 2019 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication (update) the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape currently stands.  Thank you for your continued interest.

Championship Week: Teams in all CAPS reflect automatic bid (exceptions made to traditional teams with acronyms (VCU, UCF, etc.)

UPDATED: March 17, 2019  |  5:30 p.m. ET – FINAL

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
EAST REGION St. John’s vs. Arizona State
WEST REGION Temple vs. Ohio State
EAST REGION  IONA vs. FAIR-DICKINSON
MIDWEST REGION NO DAKOTA ST vs. NC CENTRAL

EAST Washington, DC   SOUTH – Louisville                 
Columbia Columbia
1) DUKE 1) Virginia
16) IONA / FDU 16) PRAIRIE VIEW 
8) Ole Miss 8) Seton Hall
9) UCF 9) Baylor
Hartford Hartford
5) VILLANOVA 5) Kansas State
12) LIBERTY 12) MURRAY STATE
4) IOWA STATE 4) Purdue
13) NORTHEASTERN 13) VERMONT
Tulsa Salt Lake City
6) CINCINNATI 6) Maryland
11) Arizona St / St. John’s 11) VCU
3) LSU 3) Texas Tech
14) YALE 14) SAINT LOUIS
Des Moines Columbus
7) Louisville 7) BUFFALO
10) Oklahoma 10) Washington
2) Michigan 2) Tennessee
15) COLGATE 15) GARDNER-WEBB
WEST – Anaheim MIDWEST – Kansas City
Salt Lake City Jacksonville
1) Gonzaga 1) North Carolina
16) AB CHRISTIAN 16) NC CENTRAL / ND STATE
8) Minnesota 8) Iowa
9) Syracuse 9) UTAH STATE
San Jose San Jose
5) Virginia Tech 5) Marquette
12) NEW MEXICO ST 12) SAINT MARY’S
4) Wisconsin 4) Kansas
13) UC-IRVINE 13) OLD DOMINION
Jacksonville Tulsa
6) Mississippi State 6) AUBURN
11) Temple / Ohio State 11) OREGON
3) Florida State 3) Houston
14) GEORGIA STATE 14) NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Des Moines Columbus
7) Nevada 7) WOFFORD
10) Florida 10) TCU
2) MICHIGAN STATE 2) Kentucky
15) MONTANA 15) BRADLEY

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN      First 4 OUT Next 4 OUT
Washington Ohio State Belmont NC Greensboro
TCU Temple NC State Furman
Florida St. John’s Indiana Xavier
VCU Arizona State Alabama Texas

TOP SEED LINE: Duke is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Virginia, North Carolina, and Gonzaga

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (8): MICHIGAN STATE, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State

SEC (7): AUBURN, Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Florida

ACC (7): DUKE, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse

BIG 12 (7): IOWA STATE, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU

Big East (4): VILLANOVA, Marquette, Seton Hall, St. John’s

American (4): CINCINNATI, Houston, UCF, Temple

Pac 12 (3): OREGON, Washington, Arizona State

Mountain West (2): UTAH STATE, Nevada

West Coast (2): SAINT MARY’S, Gonzaga

Atlantic 10 (2): SAINT LOUIS, VCU

Southern (1): WOFFORD

Mid American (1): BUFFALO

ONE BID LEAGUES: BRADLEY (MVC), IONA (MAAC), OLD DOMINION (C-USA), GEORGIA STATE (SBELT), YALE (IVY), MONTANA (BSKY), NORTHERN KENTUCKY (HORIZON), ABILENE CHRISTIAN (SLND), UC-IRVINE (BWEST), LIBERTY (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), NORTHEASTERN (CAA), GARDNER-WEBB (BSO), NC CENTRAL (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC), VERMONT (AEAST), COLGATE (PAT), FAIRLEIGH-DICKINSON (NEC), PRAIRIE VIEW (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.

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  1. January 18, 2019 at 4:36 pm

    Great work! Interesting to see Auburn a 7. Any specific reasoning?

    • Dave Ommen
      January 20, 2019 at 7:43 am

      Sorry I’m getting back with you so late. Basically, Auburn’s resume doesn’t match some of its analytics and metrics, if that makes sense. And Auburn’s loss at home to Kentucky yesterday only further’s the Team Sheet disparity. They are 0-4 vs. Group 1 and of their Group 2 wins, only the home win over Washington would quality as an “at-large field win” right now. That’s not to say wins over teams like Murray State, Arizona, and Xavier aren’t relevant (for example), but all would be bubble teams; and even Washington would be in that category. In other words, they need a couple of “move the needle” wins to cement their resume and prove they can beat NCAA-level competition.

  2. Luke Davis
    January 25, 2019 at 1:42 am

    A little confuses and I understand other teams can improve their resume as well, but ASU now 14-5 and won 3 in a row with the most Q1 wins in the Pac12, yet you now drop them from a 11 seed to the last 4 in and a play in game? Arizona loses 2 out of 3 and goes from out to last 4 in? Appreciate the education man, and Lunardi sucks! Lmao!

    • Dave Ommen
      January 29, 2019 at 3:54 pm

      Sorry the late response. It was more a case of how teams them fared in the process as I recall. Long story short and after the fact, I know. No teams play in a vacuum, so resumes are affected and in contrast to the others around them and who they are compared against during a point in time.

  3. Henry Muto
    January 26, 2019 at 10:42 am

    Do you know if the committee is going to do another Feb top 16 bracket show like they have the last 2 years ?

    • Dave Ommen
      January 29, 2019 at 3:52 pm

      Good question. Answer: I don’t know.

  4. Traci Gill
    January 29, 2019 at 4:46 pm

    Great site – Heard you on Mitch Unfiltered – I was curious if the Zags do become a 1 seed will they still play in Salt LK or would they play in San Jose?

    • Dave Ommen
      February 8, 2019 at 4:59 pm

      That would depend on Gonzaga’s choice, honestly. My guess is they would chose Salt Lake. Believe its geographically closer, too.

  5. Henry J Muto
    February 7, 2019 at 9:05 pm

    What a game Wofford wins in OT over ETSU in a great great game. It be awesome if somehow the Southern got in 2 teams. The top 4 teams are very good I mean Furman the 4th best team won at Nova for crying out load. A shame these teams basically have to be perfect in their league to even sniff at large shot.

  6. Dan
    February 8, 2019 at 3:14 pm

    Was wondering about NC State. Only good win is a home win against Auburn. They have proven that can’t beat any of the good teams on their schedule. Is it because of such a weak bubble this year?

    • Dave Ommen
      February 8, 2019 at 4:58 pm

      To a certain extent, yes. NC State’s profile is hanging in there because there are fewer options. Beyond their lack of high-end wins, their non-conference schedule ranks as one of the worst in D1. The Committee has dismissed teams like that before if they end up on the bubble. So it’s up the NC State to solidify its status over the next three weeks or risk living dangerously during Selection Week.

  7. donald sotir
    February 11, 2019 at 7:07 pm

    Yesterday you had the East playing the West today you have the East playing the Midwest can you please explain that. Thank You

    • Dave Ommen
      February 13, 2019 at 6:49 am

      Donald, the reason was this: following Virginia’s home loss to Duke on Saturday, Gonzaga moved ahead of UVA on the Seed List, in essence they switched positions. That means the West Region was paired with the South (No. 2 vs. No. 3 on Seed List) and the East (Duke No. 1) would be paired with the West (UVA No. 4). With the Cavs win at UNC this week, that could re-flip tomorrow, we’ll see.

  8. Tim
    February 14, 2019 at 2:22 pm

    explain to me exactly how the number 1 team in the big 12 is a 6 seed and kansas is a 3 and iowa state, who lost at home to kansas state is a 5?

    • Dave Ommen
      February 14, 2019 at 5:57 pm

      I’ll try to be brief … Kansas’ overall profile is superior – 9 Q1 wins, No. 1 SOS, non-conference wins over Tennessee, Michigan State, Villanova, Marquette, as examples. Teams are ranked on the seed list based on overall body of work, not conference standing, per se. Kansas State was the Top 5 seed today, could have been on the 4 line. Committee revealed its Top 16 last Saturday and made no mention of the Wildcats as a contender for the 4 line, making me think they would have been closer to the 6. So we’re working from there. Iowa State was No. 13 on their seed list before loss to TCU, so they dropped to 16 on my list today, but again, working with what they gave us. Personally, I think ISU’s seeding was a little off, but the goal here is to replicate the committee, so that’s where we’re at. Individual head-to-head results are only a small part of team’s profile and really aren’t that important; more to fans than to the committee. Hope this helps a little and thanks for following along.

  9. February 18, 2019 at 9:28 pm

    This thing with Nevada(a team ranked in top 10 all year #6 right now) as # 4 is ridiculous and biased. Did anybody of these “experts” have seen this team playing? It’s OK we like it this way. If we stay in the West nobody will stop us until the FF.

    • Dave Ommen
      February 19, 2019 at 11:20 am

      Hi Peter … First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. As you probably know, the Selection Committee revealed its initial Top 16 by Region a couple of Saturday’s ago. At that time, they had Nevada as 4-seed; most likely because their schedule has provided limited opportunities for Elite level wins. As our goal here is to try our best to replicate what we think the Committee will do, we are working with what they gave us. We can all have valuable opinions as to seed list ranking; in fact there are probably varied opinions in the Committee room. As I’m sure you’re aware, too, the AP rankings are not a criteria for selection or seeding, per NCAA guidelines. Thanks again for your interest!

  10. Andrew
    February 19, 2019 at 10:45 am

    Do you think Butler needs to win either at Marquette or at Villanova to secure an at large? Or do you think going 3-2 (wins over Xavier, Providence twice, losses to Marquette and Villanova) can still get them in? Maybe need a Big East tournament win in that scenario? It would put them at 9-9 in Big East conference play. I know a lot of it also depends on what other bubble teams do, but just curious as to your thoughts.

    Thanks! Keep up the awesome work!

    • Dave Ommen
      February 19, 2019 at 11:26 am

      Hi Andrew … Thanks for your interest. My best opinion at this point in time is that Butler needs to beat Marquette or Villanova at some point – could be in the BE tourney. Would a sweep of the three you mentioned plus beating St. John’s a second time on a neutral court (BE tourney) be enough? Maybe. It might be a 50-50 proposition. Winning away from home as been an issue for the Dawgs this season. At some point, they are going to have to prove they can win a meaningful game outside of Hinkle. We’ll see how things look in three weeks.

  11. Mark
    March 4, 2019 at 8:53 am

    You have too many teams playing in Columbus. My guess is that you meant to have UVA playing in Columbia.

    • Dave Ommen
      March 5, 2019 at 1:08 pm

      That was merely an oversight and was corrected on Monday. Thanks for following.

  12. Tyler
    March 4, 2019 at 10:11 pm

    Where is IU?

    • Dave Ommen
      March 5, 2019 at 1:08 pm

      Tyler, Indiana is still a few spots from the Next Four out because they are only one game above .500 – no team with that type of overall record has ever received an at-large bid before.

  13. Steve
    March 5, 2019 at 12:17 pm

    Great work. Question: if Kansas is your top 4 seed (per your seed list), then shouldn’t they go to the Midwest (Kansas City) instead of the East (DC)? The Big 12 tournament is there but conference tournaments do not count towards the 3 game max for a team to play at a venue.

    • Dave Ommen
      March 5, 2019 at 1:07 pm

      Hi Steve, thanks for your interest! Kansas was moved East to balance the regions; Michigan State was the lowest 2 and LSU the third lowest 3 seed. That happens on lines 3 and 4 sometimes; even though it can affect bracket preference. Kansas couldn’t go West because Texas Tech was there – also to balance the regionals; Midwest would be Tech’s normal region, too.

      • Steve
        March 11, 2019 at 10:29 am

        Thanks for the reply.

  14. Dave Ommen
    March 5, 2019 at 1:10 pm

    Xavier would be in the conversation; but so much depends on what else happens around them. This week and next are big for X and several others in the Big East and beyond. Thanks for your interest.

  15. Jeff
    March 13, 2019 at 6:46 am

    With the new NET ratings, I am hoping the committee shows more love to the Mid-Majors like Belmont, Furman and UNC Greensboro for at large bids, and stops rewarding high-majors just because of conference play. Not until the big schools start hitting the road to play mid-major schools should they be given such preferential treatment. The best part of March Madness is the smaller schools (ala Loyola) making a run, rather than watching Texas play Florida (Yawn).

    • Dave Ommen
      March 15, 2019 at 10:13 am

      We can agree that at least hopes this year’s quality mid-majors are given adequate consideration. No one is suggesting we should just “allow teams in” because they are mid-majors; rather, there needs to be adequate debate knowing the inherit difference in opportunities.

  16. Hank
    March 15, 2019 at 6:44 am

    This bracket looks good. So looking through and seeing your knowledge of the teams fighting for a spot, is there any chance South Carolina could squeak in with a close loss to either Tennessee or Kentucky in the SEC Championship if they were to get there?

    • Dave Ommen
      March 15, 2019 at 10:16 am

      Hi Hank,
      South Carolina might make the consideration board, but they, too, would basically be .500 at that point. I believe the Gamecocks have to win the auto bid to make it. That’s my best assessment at the moment.

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