Bracketology

64-thumbWelcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology. This is where you will find bracket projections for the 2015 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication (update) the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape stands. The closer we get to Selection Sunday, the bracket reflects a more season ending today approach.

UPDATED: March 15, 2015  |  5:35 p.m. (ET) – FINAL

Note: Now that we’ve reached Championship Week, teams in CAPS represent the AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc). During conference tournament play, the highest remaining seed will earn the teams auto bid for the bracket until the tournament is completed.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Texas vs. Colorado State | East Region
  • Boise State vs. Temple | Midwest Region
  • LAFAYETTE vs. MANHATTAN | South Region
  • ROBERT MORRIS vs. HAMPTON | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

MIDWESTCleveland EAST Syracuse
Louisville Pittsburgh
1) KENTUCKY 1) VILLANOVA
16) ROB MORRIS / HAMPTON 16) NORTH FLORIDA
8) Oregon 8) NC State
9) Cincinnati 9) Ohio State
Seattle Jacksonville
5) West Virginia 5) Arkansas
12) WYOMING 12) WOFFORD
4) Louisville 4) Baylor
13) VALPARAISO 13) HARVARD
Columbus Pittsburgh
6) Butler 6) Georgetown
11) Boise State / Temple 11) Texas / Colorado St
3) Notre Dame 3) Maryland
14) EASTERN WASHINGTON 14) ALBANY
Omaha Charlotte
7) Iowa 7) VCU
10) Georgia 10) Oklahoma State
2) Kansas 2) Virginia
15) BELMONT 15) NORTHEASTERN
WEST – Los Angeles SOUTH – Houston
Charlotte Charlotte
1) WISCONSIN 1) Duke
16) COASTAL CAROLINA 16) LAFAYETTE / MANHATTAN
8) San Diego State 8) Dayton
9) St. John’s 9) Purdue
Jacksonville Portland
5) Wichita State 5) Providence
12) BUFFALO 12) S.F. AUSTIN
4) North Carolina 4) NORTHERN IOWA
13) GEORGIA STATE 13) NEW MEXICO ST
Columbus Omaha
6) Michigan State 6) SMU
11) Mississippi 11) Indiana
3) Oklahoma 3) IOWA STATE
14) UC-IRVINE 14) NO DAKOTA ST
Portland Seattle
7) Xavier 7) Utah
10) Davidson 10) LSU
2) ARIZONA 2) GONZAGA
15) TEXAS-SOUTHERN 15) UAB

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kentucky is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin. Next in line: Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Indiana, Texas, Colorado State, Boise State, Temple

First Five teams out (at large): BYU, Miami-FL, Texas AM, UCLA, Connecticut

Next five teams out (at large): Tulsa, Old Dominion, Murray State, Illinois, Rhode Island

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 10 (7): Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas

ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State

Big East (6): Villanova, Georgetown, Providence, Butler, Xavier, St. John’s

SEC (5): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss

Mountain West (4): WYOMING, San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State

Pac 12 (3): Arizona, Utah, Oregon

Atlantic 10 (3): VCU, Dayton, Davidson

American (3): SMU, Cincinnati, Temple

Missouri Valley (2): NORTHERN IOWA, Wichita State

West Coast (1): GONZAGA

ONE BID LEAGUES: UAB (C-USA), GEORGIA STATE (SBELT), HARVARD (IVY), EASTERN WASHINGTON (BSKY), VALPARAISO (HZN), S.F. AUSTIN (SLND), WOFFORD (STHN), UC-IRVINE (BWEST), BUFFALO (MAC), MANHATTAN (MAAC), NORTH FLORIDA (ASUN), BELMONT (OVC), NORTHEASTERN (CAA), COASTAL CAROLINA(BSO), HAMPTON (MEAC), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), NEW MEXICO ST (WAC), ALBANY (AEAST), LAFAYETTE (PAT), ROBERT MORRIS (NEC), TEXAS-SOUTHERN (SWAC)

  1. Friar Fran
    January 2, 2015 at 3:40 pm

    No Providence in your field? Don’t sleep on the Friars

  2. t-dogs
    February 27, 2015 at 9:31 am

    Any chance of Chattanooga beating Wofford in the SoCon finals and that becoming a 2 bid league?

    • Dave Ommen
      February 28, 2015 at 6:49 am

      Remote chance. I wouldn’t say impossible, but a variety of scenarios would likely have to unfold.

  3. March 2, 2015 at 12:39 pm

    Dave, love most of your projections. Were close on almost every team. My question would be on Xavier and why you have them at a 9 seed. I’m seeing a team with 12 losses, best wins are at Georgetown and home vs. Providence. Bad losses. Losses at Auburn, At DePaul, Creighton, LBSU (N), UTEP (N), and At Seton Hall. And only a 8-9 Big East record. Doesn’t this scream 11 seed or play-in game to you?

    • Dave Ommen
      March 2, 2015 at 6:11 pm

      Rocco … thanks for checking in. On the surface, yes, a 9 seed seems a bit high. But the entire landscape has to be considered – teams behind them, etc. In another year, they might be an 11 seed (or Play-in). I do think you might be shortchanging XU’s Top 20 SOS and out-of-conference wins against Cincinnati (road/rival) along with Murray State, Stephen F. Austin, and Alabama. Are they great wins? No. But Northern Iowa only beat SF Austin by two points. Subtle things, but ones that make a difference. For example, if you change the category to Top 70, Xavier has seven wins against that group. All that said, Xavier is still a “bubble” team at this point. Looking okay, but I wouldn’t want lose to Creighton and then drop the first game of the Big East tourney. We have a lot of teams with double-digit losses, some of them will make it in. It’s also worth noting that Xavier has 14 Top 150 wins. By comparison, Tulsa, a current First Four member, has 5 Top 100 wins (instead of 9) and just 7 wins vs. Top 150, and an SOS around 120. There’s always not a lot of difference between a low 9 seed and the highest 11 seed.

  4. March 2, 2015 at 6:56 pm

    Good explanation there. It always helps to hear the method behind the projections. Not saying I disagree with any of it. This is a really tough year to differentiate seeds 8 thru 11/play-in. So I like to take a committee approach and discuss it with other bracketologists to come up with my final take. Really appreciate your detailed response and Im very curious to see how these bubble scenarios play out. I have a strong feeling that between A10/American/MWC/Pac12 Tournaments, that at least two bids will be stolen. Welcome to March. Cheers!

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