Bracketology

64-thumbWelcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology.

This is where you will find bracket projections for the 2018 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication (update) the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape currently stands.  Thank you for your continued interest.

UPDATED:  March 11, 2018   |   5:30 p.m. (ET) – FINAL

FIRST FOUR – DAYTON
MIDWEST REGION Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
SOUTH REGION Texas vs. USC
EAST REGION CS-FULLERTON vs. LIU-BROOKLYN
SOUTH REGION NC-CENTRAL vs. TX-SOUTHERN

SOUTH Atlanta                      EAST – Boston               
Charlotte Pittsburgh
1) VIRGINIA 1) VILLANOVA
16) NC-CENTRAL / TX-SOUTHERN  16) CS-FULLERTON / LIU-BROOKLYN
8) Providence 8) Virginia Tech
9) Alabama 9) Kansas State
Boise San Diego
5) Houston 5) Clemson
12) DAVIDSON 12) MURRAY STATE
4) Texas Tech 4) KENTUCKY
13) CHARLESTON 13) BUFFALO
Nashville Wichita
6) Ohio State 6) Miami-FL
11) Texas / USC 11) LOYOLA-CHICAGO
3) Tennessee 3) West Virginia
14) BUCKNELL 14) WRIGHT STATE
Detroit Detroit
7) TCU 7) Rhode Island
10) Creighton 10) UCLA
2) CINCINNATI 2) Purdue
15) PENNSYLVANIA 15) IONA
WEST – Los Angeles MIDWEST – Omaha
Pittsburgh Wichita
1) Xavier 1) KANSAS
16) RADFORD 16) UMBC
8) Missouri 8) Nevada
9) Florida State 9) NC State
San Diego Boise
5) GONZAGA 5) Wichita State
12) SOUTH DAKOTA ST 12) SAN DIEGO STATE
4) ARIZONA 4) Auburn
13) MARSHALL 13) UNC-GREENSBORO
Dallas Dallas
6) Arkansas 6) Florida
11) NEW MEXICO STATE 11) Oklahoma / Arizona State
3) MICHIGAN 3) Michigan State
14) S.F. AUSTIN 14) MONTANA
Charlotte Nashville
7) Seton Hall 7) Texas AM
10) St. Bonaventure 10) Butler
2) North Carolina 2) Duke
15) LIPSCOMB 15) GEORGIA STATE

BUBBLE NOTES
Last 4 Byes   Last 4 IN        First 4 OUT Next 4 OUT   
Butler Texas Saint Mary’s Oklahoma State
Creighton Oklahoma Louisville Syracuse
St. Bonaventure Arizona State Marquette Notre Dame
UCLA USC Middle Tennessee Baylor

TOP SEED LINE: Virginia is the No. 1 overall seed – followed by Villanova, Kansas, and Xavier

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (8): VIRGINIA, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, NC State, Florida State

SEC (8): KENTUCKY, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, Texas AM, Missouri, Alabama

BIG 12 (7): KANSAS, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma

Big East (6): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler, Providence

Big 10 (4): MICHIGAN, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State

Pac 12 (4): ARIZONA, UCLA, Arizona State, USC

American (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston

Atlantic 10 (3): DAVIDSON, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure

West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s

Mountain West (2): SAN DIEGO STATE, Nevada

ONE BID LEAGUES: MARSHALL (C-USA) LOYOLA-CHI (MVC), IONA (MAAC), GEORGIA STATE (SBELT), PENNSYLVANIA (IVY), MONTANA (BSKY), WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON), S.F. AUSTIN (SLND), UNC-GREENSBORO (STHN), CS-FULLERTON (BWEST), BUFFALO (MAC), LIPSCOMB (ASUN), MURRAY STATE (OVC), CHARLESTON (CAA), RADFORD (BSO), NC-CENTRAL (MEAC), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUM), NEW MEXICO ST (WAC), UMBC (AEAST), BUCKNELL (PAT), LIU-BROOKLYN (NEC), TEXAS-SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Bracketing principles: read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.

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  1. Steve Richards
    February 16, 2018 at 10:41 am

    if last 4 teams are Washington, Texas, UCLA, and Baylor- why do you have Washington/Texas playing for a 12 seed, while UCLA and Baylor are playing for a 11 seed. Both are Pac 12/Big 12 teams, playing to go up against a SEC team. Shouldn’t the 2 higher teams be playing for a 11 and the 2 lower teams be playing for a 12?

    • Dave Ommen
      February 16, 2018 at 12:36 pm

      Steve … Good Question! It’s actually a bracketing issue. First Four participants play on either Tuesday or Wednesday and thus one winner must be sent to a Thursday-Saturday site (Tuesday’s winner) and the other to a Friday-Sunday site (Wednesday’s winner). Given today’s bracket set-up, there was only one Friday site to coincide with the 11-line – and there were also conference conflict issues. So it’s not uncommon. First Four participants can be placed on any line, theoretically, although 10-12 are most common. Some depends on the Seed List and some on dates/locations as well. Committee tries to keep teams on their true seed line, but there are times that doesn’t work.

      • Steve Richards
        February 16, 2018 at 12:41 pm

        Last year though, both winners went to Friday pods. Kansas St to Sacramento and USC to Tulsa. So I don’t think it’s a hard and fast rule.

      • Dave Ommen
        February 16, 2018 at 12:57 pm

        It’s possible, and I don’t recall of the top of my head honestly – I’ll have to look it up. But as a general rule that would be frowned upon and likely only done if there was an overriding bracketing principle that couldn’t be handled differently. Committee has made mistakes against its own rules before; one time, I believe, they slotted BYU to a Friday-Sunday site when BYU can’t play on Sundays. Thanks for your interest!

  2. Brenan
    February 27, 2018 at 2:27 am

    I’ve yet to figure out why MTSU keeps ending up at 11 seeds in all the brackets. I personally fancy them way better than an 11 seed and it seems like they’re a solid candidate to make it as an at large even if they don’t win the C-USA tourney, but I must be missing something given it’s rather a consensus

    • Dave Ommen
      March 1, 2018 at 7:25 am

      Sorry for the delayed response, Brenan. MTSU is a very good basketball team, and assuming they beat Western Kentucky again tonight, their at-large profile is pretty good. The reason you’re finding the Blue Raiders in the 11-seed range is this: they went 0-3 in their non-league “up” games (Auburn, Miami, USC), meaning that unless W. Kentucky were to make it as an at-large, MTSU would be winless against at-large teams in the Field (as projected now). If MTSU were to lose to someone other than W. Kentucky on the way in, they would have a bubbly profile on paper. That could change, and if MTSU wins out, I think a 9-10 in realistic; in which case I’d take a 10 every day of the week.

  3. dougschloemer
    February 28, 2018 at 2:10 pm

    As Duke & NC keep picking
    up losses, is there any way either drops off the #2 line in your opinion?

    • Dave Ommen
      March 1, 2018 at 7:29 am

      Hi Doug, the short answer is yes. Carolina’s profile is still incredibly strong based on Quadrant 1 wins, just keep that in mind. Losing could still move them down, obviously, as one of them will lose this weekend. They could theoretically get passed by someone depending upon how they fare at the ACC tourney. Based on how the Committee placed them in mid-February, both have an inside track to the 2-line depending upon how they finish. We’ll see.

  4. Diana Holmes
    February 28, 2018 at 5:24 pm

    Arkansas wants DALLAS! Send Florida to Wichita which only holds 10,000 or less people. They ALWAYS send us so far from home! DALLAS

    • Dave Ommen
      March 1, 2018 at 7:27 am

      Hi Diana, you sound like a great Hogs fan! Unless Arkansas can climb into a top three seed (unlikely) they will positioned in the bracket based upon their final standing on the seed list, along with other bracketing principle considerations. They could literally end up in any of the pods. But I hope Dallas works out!

  5. Ian Nolan
    March 4, 2018 at 10:37 am

    Hey, I run a blog about St. Bonaventure hoops…would love to do a quick Q and A with you about their chances for our site. Shoot me an email if interested! Ianrobertnolan@gmail.com

    • Dave Ommen
      March 6, 2018 at 6:26 pm

      Hi Ian,
      Sorry I’m just not now getting to some emails. Let me check my schedule tomorrow. I’d love to connect if I can fit it in. Dave

  6. Kevin
    March 4, 2018 at 9:28 pm

    At this point entering post conference tournaments is there any way that Villanova, Xavier, or Virginia can get knocked off the #1 seed line? It seems to me those 3 are locks and Duke, Kansas, etc are fighting for the 4th spot.

    • Dave Ommen
      March 6, 2018 at 6:25 pm

      Kevin, Virginia will be the No. 1 overall seed on Sunday. I feel confident of that. I also feel pretty confident that either Villanova or Xavier stay a No. 1. If Kansas wins the Big 12 title and Duke wins the ACC, I could see a scenario in which both the Jayhawks and Blue Devils are No. 1 seeds, meaning either Villanova or Xavier drops a line – depending upon who wins the Big East tourney. Best I can estimate right now.

  7. Juan
    March 5, 2018 at 11:41 am

    Does Marquette have to beat Villanova to stay in the tournament or does a win over DePaul in the big east keep them in?

    • Dave Ommen
      March 6, 2018 at 6:22 pm

      Juan, DePaul only helps Marquette tread water. To feel better, might need to be Nova. Until we know what else happens this week, hard to say. Beat the Blue Demons first, then swing for the fences.

  8. Don
    March 5, 2018 at 4:20 pm

    What do you think is Butler’s chance of making the NCAA tournament with a loss to Seton Hall in the Big East tournament this Thursday? Or, maybe a better question, what would need to happen to the other bubble teams behind Butler in order for Butler to still make the NCAA tournament? Obviously, losses by all bubble teams behind Butler would be awesome, but not realistic. So I’m curious what would need to happen for them to stay in the NCAA tournament with a loss to Seton Hall (which other bubble teams could win, which bubble teams would need to lose, etc.). Unfortunately, with Butler’s play as of late, I have more confidence in teams behind Butler losing than Butler beating Seton Hall….

    – A very nervous Butler fan

    • Dave Ommen
      March 6, 2018 at 6:21 pm

      Don, as a Butler grad myself, nervous times. If it matters – and we’ll see – the metric models tend to like the Bulldogs. Way back in November, I thought the Bulldogs might be a bubble team – new coach, loss of some key pieces – but they’ve had a solid season. That said, another loss to Seton Hall leaves them more vulnerable, no question. Win and I think in. Lose and it’s wait and see what else transpires.

  9. March 6, 2018 at 4:46 pm

    As long as Texas picks up a win over Iowa State on Wednesday night, are they pretty safe to at least be a last four in team?

    • Dave Ommen
      March 6, 2018 at 6:16 pm

      I would think so, yes. No guarantees if things get really quirky, but I would like the Longhorns’ chances if they beat Iowa State. Might still get in without a win, but could get more risky.

  10. Kevin Polpolus
    March 6, 2018 at 6:06 pm

    Do you think the BIG 10 champs Michigan could get higher/lower than a 3 seed? Depending on other conferences obviously.

    • Dave Ommen
      March 6, 2018 at 6:15 pm

      Hi Kevin,
      I think Michigan’s seed could end up as a 3 or 4 depending upon what happens this week. Not much chance to get to the 2-line. I think 3 is the ceiling and 5 at the lowest if the Committee ends up balking at the Big Ten overall. But I think the 3/4 line is a pretty good bet.

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