Archive

Archive for the ‘S-Curve’ Category

Bracketology: Virginia reigns over Field of 68

March 11, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015While plenty of questions remain for a handful of teams on the bubble, this much we know: Virginia will be the overall No. 1 seed when the 2018 NCAA tournament bracket is revealed tonight.  The Cavaliers completed a remarkable season Saturday night by beating North Carolina in the ACC title game.  That appears to leave the No. 1 line as it was yesterday – Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, and Xavier.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

The underlying story today is Davidson, which plays Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 championship.  If the Wildcats pull off an upset, one unlucky team will be bounced from the Field as Davidson would arrive as an automatic qualifier.

Other potential variables in play today (for seeding) include results in the SEC tournament (Tennessee vs. Kentucky) and the American (Cincinnati vs. Houston).  The Committee could build alternate brackets or decide each team’s body of work is basically complete.

However it works out, we’ve reached another Selection Sunday.  Here’s to an incredible journey through the Madness of March.

Advertisements

Bracketology: Kansas move up, bubble tightens

March 10, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015My how things can change, right?

Kansas moves into the Midwest Region courtesy of the Jayhawks’ win over Kansas State and Xavier’s loss to Providence.  The Musketeers remain the fourth No. 1 seed this morning, shifting to the West Region.  Close behind, now, is North Carolina, which beat Duke for a second time. If the Tar Heels beat Virginia in the ACC title game, they could find themselves as a No. 1 seed come Sunday morning.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Elsewhere, the bubble has tightened thanks to some upsets – particularly in the Mountain West.  Nevada is a likely at-large candidate, meaning their loss to San Diego State opens the door for SDSU or New Mexico to grab a seat, courtesy of the league’s automatic bid.  That’s bad news for teams along the cutline.

We still have more questions than answers, but as of this morning, Arizona State slides into the First Four and hopes to hang on.  If the Committee considers the non-conference season as important as the conference season, it’s hard to ignore ASU’s wins over Kansas, Xavier, and Kansas State (not to mention San Diego State and St. John’s).   Read more…

Bracketology: So many bubble questions

March 9, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015So many bubble questions.  Where do we start?

Long waits are underway for teams like Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Baylor, and Notre Dame.  So too, now, for Middle Tennessee which exited the Conference USA tournament after an overtime loss to Southern Miss in the quarterfinals.  Thus, the Blue Raiders add themselves to what was already an intriguing group of quality at-large candidates.

Bracketology    |    Seed List

Depending on what happens today in the SEC and Pac-12 tourneys, in particular, we have about 12 teams in play for four spots.  That it’s the first year for the NCAA’s new Quadrant system only adds seasoning to the pot.  Will the Committee reward the overall excellence of Middle Tennessee who has multiple Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 wins – even if those wins aren’t power conference names?  How will the Committee handle the RPI situation of a team like Oklahoma State?  And will that same RPI effect benefit a team like Louisville?  Depending on your take, you can make legitimate cases for and/or against any of the 12.

As with the Committee, it’s time to dig beneath the surface of the bubble contenders during the next 48 hours. Come Sunday, our vantage point may change.

Bracketology: Virginia holds No. 1 overall seed

March 5, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015Welcome to Championship Week!

Whether it’s a seed line position or a position in the final Field of 68, there’s a lot on the line in the next six days.  If there’s one confident bet it’s this: Virginia will be the No. 1 overall seed come Sunday night.  Villanova and Xavier also look like good wagers, although there are scenarios in which only one of them ends up being a No. 1 seed.  Kansas retains its No. 1 slot out West, with Duke very much in the mix (No. 5 on the seed list).  How Kansas, Duke, Villanova, and Xavier fare in their conference tournaments may well determine how the final one-line looks this weekend.  We can say the same for the two-line with teams like Cincinnati, Auburn, Tennessee, and North Carolina (as examples).

Bracketology   |    Seed List

As for the bubble, let’s just say its highly unsettled.  Multiple teams have an opportunity to play their way in or out come Sunday morning.  Frequent updates this week as teams punch their tickets to the 2018 NCAA tournament and push for a spot in the bracket.  Enjoy.

Bubble Talk: A lot at stake in conference tourneys

March 3, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015As another Championship Week arrives, we wrap up Bubble Talk with this nugget: some 30 teams have work to do before Selection Sunday.  The amount of work for those teams, varies, obviously, but the sheer volume indicates there’s a lot at stake this weekend and at conference tournaments across the country.

Bubble Talk

It’s also that time of year when we start keeping tabs on potential bid thieves – teams that can snatch an unexpected bid and shrink the available at-large pool.  It’s go-time, folks.  Madness has arrived.

Bracketology: Madness as March arrives

February 28, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015Madness prevailed on Tuesday night, as odd results engulfed college hoops.  March starts tomorrow, you say?  Okay, maybe that explains it.  If so, buckle up.  The next twelve days could get bumpy.

Bracketology    |     Seed List

The No. 1 seed line remains stable.  Other than that?  Seed lines are up for grabs, especially in the middle of the bracket.  Along the bubble, teams have a lot on the line between now and Selection Sunday.

Quick note … a couple of teams had their true seed line altered to fit bracketing principles.  Here’s the latest …

Bracket Bits: What’s next for Texas?

February 27, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015What’s next for Texas?  It’s an important question for the Longhorns, who fell to 17-13 (7-10 in Big 12) after losing at Kansas on Monday.  The loss – especially without Mo Bamba – was almost predictable, but it does create a scenario in which the Longhorns face a 14-loss campaign unless they win Saturday at home against West Virginia and sweep through the Big 12 tournament.  Neither of those options is guaranteed, or even likely.  So, what’s next for Texas?  There’s no definite answer until we see how the next two weeks play out.  At quick glance, it would be best for the Longhorns to find two more wins, however they arrive.

Seed List  Read more…