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Quick Takes: Carolina pushing for No. 1 seed

February 19, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015North Carolina is pushing for a No. 1 seed.  So is Louisville, for that matter.  And Baylor remains firmly in the mix despite four losses in six games, the most recent a two-pointer at home to Kansas in one of Saturday’s best games.  If you’re up for Round 3 of KU-Baylor in the Big 12 tournament, raise your hand.  I thought so.  We also have to keep track of the Pac-12 race.

Bubble Talk debuted on Saturday morning.  We’ll update it again next Saturday, if not before.  There’ll be a new bracket on Monday, along with a Seed List update.

More Quick Takes from Saturday … Read more…

Quick Takes: Monmouth captures MAAC title

February 17, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015In the spirit of March, congratulations to the Monmouth Hawks, the first NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball team to clinch a regular-season conference title (MAAC).  By do so, the Hawks guarantee themselves a post-season berth. They narrowly missed the NCAA tournament last year as an at-large team. Motivation will be high at the MAAC tournament with another Dance card at stake.

Quick Takes from Thursday:

  • Michigan grabbed a critical home win against Wisconsin.  The Wolverines close with 4 of 5 on the road, where they’ve managed a 1-6 record.
  • Wisconsin likely needs to find wins over Maryland and Purdue down the stretch (including B10 tourney) to secure a Top 5 seed.  Otherwise, the Badgers’ top-end profile could relegate them to a slightly lesser seed on Selection Sunday.
  • Smooth night out West as Gonzaga, Oregon, and Arizona all roll to wins.

Read more…

Quick Takes: Potential impact of NC SOS

February 14, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015We can identify teams like SMU, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech as recent casualties of weak non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS) numbers on Selection Sunday.  The Selection Committee has repeatedly sent messages to teams who schedule heavy doses of non-conference games against the bottom third of the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI): stay clear of the bubble or risk being left out.

With that as a backdrop, here are six teams currently on the Bubble with either potential NC SOS trouble and/or a large number of non-conference games against the bottom end of Division 1. As part of the exercise, each of these team’s record minus those 200-plus NC RPI wins is noted in parenthesis … Read more…

Bracketology: Committee delivers ACC message

February 13, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015If we learned anything after Saturday’s sneak peak into the 2017 Selection Committee’s thinking – at least in mid-February – it’s this: Quality RPI wins still matter and the Atlantic Coast Conference is the top game in town.  The road to Selection Sunday is far from over, but as of Noon this past Saturday, ACC teams gobbled up five of the 16 seed lines released (31 percent).  The Big 12 and Pac-12 each took three (19 percent each).  The Big East and SEC two each (12.5 percent).  The Big Ten?  A discussion point, but not worthy, and that was before Wisconsin lost at home Sunday night to Northwestern; a huge win for the Wildcats, by the way, who are poised to make their first-ever appearance in March Madness.  Cincinnati and SMU (American) were also on the outside looking in at the top four lines.

Bracketology  |  Seed List

Now, take a breath.  If college basketball has taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.  Although the very top of the bracket is certainly taking shape, nothing is set in stone.  Based upon the Committee’s seeding, three ACC teams (North Carolina, Louisville, Florida State) are still in play for a No. 1 seed.  One could say the same for an eventual Pac-12 champion, especially if say Oregon or Arizona wins the regular season and P12 tourney titles.  As for Gonzaga?  With their trip to Saint Mary’s in the rearview mirror, it’s looking more and more likely the Bulldogs will wrap-up a perfect season.  If they do, a No. 1 seed awaits.  If they were to stumble, we’ll see.  The Committee is not as enamored with their perfect record as compared to the number of power wins by say a team like Kansas or Baylor.

There’s nothing new to report along the bubble.  It’s as messy as ever.  Stay tuned.

 

Quick Takes: Busy week on the Bubble

February 7, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s a busy week on the Bubble.  For Rhode Island, it’s a double-dip of fun.  The Rams, a member of Monday’s First Four OUT, travels to Massachusetts tonight (Tuesday) and hosts Dayton on Friday.  If URI can handle UMass, it sets up an important resume building opportunity against the Flyers.  The Rams lost a close one at Dayton in early January.  Heading into the week, Rhode Island was 3-7 vs. Top 100 teams, with one NCAA-level (at-large) win: Cincinnati (in November).  It won’t be easy, but a 2-0 week would certainly help the Rams’ positioning.

More of this week’s biggest Bubble games (Bubble teams in Bold): Read more…

Bracketology: Villanova leads march to Madness

February 6, 2017 2 comments

Dave2015With the Super Bowl behind us, Selection Sunday awaits, along with the Madness of March.  Between now and then, college basketball is sure to provide us enough plot twists to hold our attention.  Exhibit A is this past Saturday … when eight of the top 16 teams on the Seed List added a loss to their resume.  Meanwhile, teams along the cutline meander like a river without direction, and the bubble club numbers 30-plus members.  In other words, fasten your seat belt and enjoy what should be a wild four-week ride.

Bracketology  |   Seed List

If you’re returning for the first time post-football, reigning NCAA champion Villanova remains entrenched as the overall No. 1 seed.  Regarding the rest of today’s No. 1 seeds, Selection Committee member value a team’s full profile over a single result (or two).  Although in a different order from last Thursday,  Gonzaga, Kansas, and Baylor continue to lead the West, Midwest, and South regions.  That said, the margins for the Jayhawks and Bears are waning.

It would take hours of conversation and pages of words to wrangle through the bubble and the process in making the final decisions for at-large spots this morning.  From eight seeds on down, every resume has holes to fill and issues to solve ahead of Championship Week.

Quick Takes: Florida, Big 12 States headline wild Saturday

February 5, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015What a Saturday in college hoops – and it’s February!

Four of the top eight teams on Saturday morning’s Seed List lost, two at home and two in blowout fashion on the road.  Another two lost in slots 9-12, and another two in slots 13-16.  Simple math equates to eight of the top 16 teams on the Seed List losing Saturday.  The flip side, of course, is that eight other teams (the winners) posted signature or marquee victories on their resumes.  My initial takeaways are that Florida and three Big 12 “States” benefitted most from a wild Saturday.

Florida’s win over Kentucky added an important piece to the Gators’ otherwise solid profile: a victory over a sure-fire NCAA team.  Prior to Saturday, Florida had nice wins against Arkansas, Seton Hall, and Miami-FL, among others.  But are you confident all of those teams will reach the final Field of 68?  See bullet-point below about the Razorbacks loss at Missouri.  On a related note … with South Carolina’s win over Georgia, the SEC title chase is up for grabs. Read more…