Seed List
Below are two tables that display the Seed List (at the time of publication) – a tool used for my bracket projects and by the actual Selection Committee to seed teams into the bracket.
A couple of things to note:
Teams listed in BOLD are conference champions and awarded an automatic bid. Now that we’ve reached conference tournament play, bold will not
The Seed List is not a poll. It is a ranking of teams based on the overall field at the time of publication. Whether it’s RPI, KenPom or some other metric, a variety of factors go into the Seed List at any given point in time. The Seed List reflects the 68-team field – and next contenders – not the entire college hoops landscape.
Updated: March 12, 2017 | 5:06 p.m. (ET)
To make it easier to follow, I didn’t use an actual “S” shape on the table; rather the highest seed on each line is to the left.
| MARCH 12 SEED LIST RANKINGS | 1-68 | |||
| 1. Villanova | 2. Kansas | 3. North Carolina | 4. Gonzaga |
| 5. Duke | 6. Kentucky | 7. Arizona | 8. Oregon |
| 9. Louisville | 10. Baylor | 11. UCLA | 12. Florida State |
| 13. Notre Dame | 14. Florida | 15. Butler | 16. West Virginia |
| 17. Purdue | 18. Cincinnati | 19. Virginia | 20. Iowa State |
| 21. Minnesota | 22. SMU | 23. Wisconsin | 24. Michigan |
| 25. Creighton | 26. Saint Mary’s | 27. Maryland | 28. Virginia Tech |
| 29. Miami | 30. Arkansas | 31. Northwestern | 32. South Carolina |
| 33. Seton Hall | 34. Dayton | 35. Oklahoma St | 36. VCU |
| 37. Wichita State | 38. Marquette | 39. Vanderbilt | 40. Michigan State |
| 41. Mid Tennessee St | 42. Xavier | 43. Rhode Island | 44. Providence |
| 45. Nevada | 46. UNC-Wilmington | 47. Kansas State | 48. Wake Forest |
| 49. USC | 50. Vermont | ||
| 51. E. Tennessee St | 52. Bucknell | 53. Princeton | 54. Winthrop |
| 55. Fla Gulf Coast | 56. New Mexico St | 57. Iona | 58. Kent State |
| 59. No. Kentucky | 60. North Dakota | 61. Jacksonville St | 62. Tx-Southern |
| 63. Troy | 64. So. Dakota St | 65. Mt St. Mary’s | 66. NC-Central |
| 67. New Orleans | 68. UC-Davis | ||
This is where the FIRST OUT at-large teams begin. While Illinois State (in this case) isn’t rated lower than NC-Central, automatic qualifiers have to be ranked within the Field of 68. That’s why I’ve compiled the s-curve this way. Other sites choose to compile the list differently. Either way is fine. To me, it’s just easier to see the clear break from which teams are IN and which are close but in the next tier.
| SEED LIST RANKINGS | 69 – 79 |
|||
| 69. Illinois State | 70. Syracuse | 71. California | 72. Iowa |
| 73. Indiana | 74. Illinois | 75. Georgia | 76. Alabama |
| 77. Monmouth | 78. TCU | 79. Colorado State | |
Thanks for you continued interest. Please share your thoughts. That’s a huge part of the fun as we work toward Selection Sunday
Ok state should be in one of the toughest schedules almost all of their losses were close and vs good teams and have beaten so very tough teams and have one of the premier stars in juwan Evans
You’re correct about Oklahoma State’s strength of schedule. Related to OSU’s wins: TCU and Arkansas are very bubbly right now, as is Georgetown and Texas Tech. OSU moved just back in today, but they are still 3-6 in league play, which will need to be improved. I like the Cowboys, but their profile is very much around the cutline. As to Evans, “stars” are not an official consideration for the Selection Committee. Thanks!
Hi Dave,
I’m a Memphis fan, and I see we are the 11th team out at this point, which with the mess Pastner left us with is something that really couldn’t be fathomed at the start of the season. The fact that we are even in the hunt is a credit to Tubby, although Pastner seems to have changed his coaching philosophy and is doing well at GA Tech, go figure, but I digress. The Tigers only have 1 top 50 win at this point, with South Carolina (No. 20). We only have two top 50 opportunities remaining with Cincy and SMU…we also only have 1 win over teams 51-100, so my question is what would there be a lot of value if Iowa (#103), Tulsa (#107), UCF (#110), and maybe even UAB (#131) moving into the top 100? We also still have games remaining with Temple (#80) and Houston (#68).
Thanks for following along! To your question, yes, those teams moving up would help to a point. Honestly, Memphis is being helped by the overall list of mediocre profiles out there. We have so many teams under consideration with sub-500 league records that eventually, winning still has to matter. Memphis needs to keep winning and avoid a bad loss; then see what happens around them. Could also still have another shot at Cincy or SMU in the AAC tourney.
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?
First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.
Thanks Dave, I really appreciate the time and effort you took into getting that response. It was clearly well thought out. I actually agree with your assessment.
I don’t see how Wichita State gets an at large bid this year even if they win out and then lose to Illinois State in the MVC finals. If they make it…it will be based on name alone. They have 0 top 100 RPI wins. If they win out they will have 1 top 100 RPI win. Their best non conf win was at home vs Tulsa. They beat LSU who stinks, Colorado State who is not good, Oklahoma who has a losing record. All losses were “good” losses but you have to beat someone. I pull for the mid majors as much as anyone but they do not deserve a bid based on their resume. Not sure how their KP rating can be so high when they have beat no one.
How can Illinois State be one ahead of Wichita state, after they just lost to Wichita by 41?
It can seem odd, but two quick things. Illinois State was several spots higher on the Seed List before the game. While the margin was certainly notable, Wichita State lost by double-digits at ISU three weeks ago. Based on how auto bids are chosen, ISU retained the MVC auto bid. They also have one other T100 win and hadn’t lost (prior to Saturday), since Dec. 23. Either way, both teams are right at the cutline as at-large contenders – at least for now. Thanks for your interest!
Would Creighton have been a 1 or 2 seed if Maurice Watson hadn’t got hurt ? Do you think they could possibly have won it all ?
I’m not sure Creighton could have been a 1 seed, but a 2-seed certainly if Watson had stayed healthy. Could easily have been a Final Four sleeper.
I changed my tune on Wichita State. Their resume says out but their play says in. The problem I have is will the committee actually take them with such a bad resume ? They were a hot debate last year in or out and ended up in. I think if they lose in the conf tournament they will be a hot debate again.
Minnesota as an 8 seed? How is that possible with their rpi and sos? I know it seems like the big ten is weak, but the gophers are a couple overtime games from being a top 4 seed.
Two quick things … Minnesota is the Top 8 seed, so one spot from a 7. Another solid week and the Gophers’ profile will even back out. The Committee made it clear on their first reveal that the Big Ten (at least then) didn’t have the same cache it’s had in the past. As of this morning, the Gophers had 4 wins vs. teams in the Field and two (Arkansas, Michigan) would still be bubble teams. It’s going to be tough for a Big Ten team to move above the 4 line. We’ll see how it plays out. Right now, those wins over Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, and even Vanderbilt aren’t helping as much as anticipated. If that changes, it helps the Gophers.
Blind test- Team A: RPI 62, SOS 42, 3 Top 50 wins, 4 wins vs Top 100
Blind test- Team B: RPI 47, SOS 3, 4 Top 50 wins, 10 wins vs Top 100
Wouldn’t you say Team B clearly is the better resume team???
But yet you have Kansas State in and Vandy out.
The committee is gonna have a tough debate with Vandy. They have a lot of losses, but they have a super strong resume.
Jesse,
Your points are valid and there will be tough debates across the board. As you noted, the issue for Vandy is its sheer volume of losses. With 13 already, one more gives them 14, the most losses ever, I believe, for an at-large team. Could they get in with 15 losses? We’ll see how the next three weeks play out. Kansas State held its spot (barely) because of road wins at Baylor (potential 1 seed) and Oklahoma State, and a win over West Virginia. They also had that loss at Kansas when an obvious traveling call was missed. Ultimately, none of these bubble teams are overly worthy. Let’s hope Vandy, K-State or someone does enough to play their way in. That would be nice to see. Appreciate your time and interest.
I know we say this every year but honestly I think this is the worst bubble of all time. So many teams are under .500 in conf and heading toward 13 or 14 losses and will make it. In some brackets people have Vanderbilt in and they are just 15-13 and no team has ever got an at large bid with 15 losses and for Vandy to avoid 15 losses and get at large bid they would need to win at Kentucky and home vs Florida. When I look at the last 4 teams in right now I honestly don’t believe any have a resume that deserves to be in right now. Heck Syracuse went from out to not even playing in Dayton with just 1 win. If Syracuse had lost to Duke they would been facing a 15 loss season and not making it and now will likely lose 14 and make it. Jerry Palm does not think Wichita State should get an at large bid he is against it because of RPI but with how bad the bubble is I think you have to look beyond the RPI and Kenpom has them at 12. Conf tournaments are going to separate the bubble this year win and in lose and out for some. Will be a shame if Middle Tenn, NC Wilmington, UT-Arlington, Wichita State and Illinois State type teams are left out if they lose in their conf tournaments to these bubble teams.
What do you think Vandy has to do to get in? Would beating Kentucky and Florida this week make them a lock? Would they get in if they split those? Any possible chance they could get in if they lose both and win a couple games in the SEC Tourney? I know they have a lot of losses, but they have the top SOS, and it doesn’t seem like they should move from where they are on the bubble for losing to two top 15 teams. Maybe I’m just an optimist and really want to see them make it in, because I think they could be very dangerous if they make it into the tournament.
Andrew,
Sorry I’m late in responding. Obviously, tonight at UK and this weekend with Florida are huge opportunities. Would winning both make Vandy a lock? That’s a tough one given their loss total. But certainly, winning both of those games, would give them a lot of pull for an at-large bid.
Henry I believe all those teams will make it this year if they lose
At least I believe Middle Tenn, Wichita and UT Arlington will make it
Hi Dave, I’m somewhat new to your site, but I really like what you have done. On the seed list, can you say where the 4 closest auto qualifiers (UNC-W, UT-A, Nevada, Monmouth) stand in relation to the first four out or more in terms of an at-large? Obviously, if any of those auto qualifiers lose, they would take a bad loss and move down. But it would be interesting to know where they stand at the moment. Thanks!
Ryan,
Thanks for following along. Whether any of those four could end up with an at-large bid depends on whom they lost to and how the landscape looks on Selection Weekend. UT-Arlington has the best win (at Saint Mary’s); Nevada and UNC-W have more Top 100 wins, although none against tournament teams. I think all four would be under consideration if they lose in their conference tournament finals.
Louisville has 7 losses, 2 recent. Kentucky has only 5 losses, how is Louisville still ahead of them. Yes Louisville beat Kentucky way back in December but it was AT Louisville and only by 3 points. Kentucky has all good losses. Kansas, UCLA, @Louisville, @Florida, @ Tennessee.
They avenged the Florida and Tennessee losses. ANd the Kansas/UCLA/Louisville losses were like a combined 13 points or something. Kentucky has won like 8 straight, Louisville with 7 losses and 3 recently. I dont understand how you still have Louisville ahead of Kentucky while most others have Kentucky up to a good 2 and Louisville dropping like a rock. just curious man. I like your work!
Sorry I never got back early. As you know now, this has worked itself out. It usually does.
do you see Kentucky going to the south as a 2 seed in north Carolina’s bracket?
Sorry I’m just now getting to return some emails and comments, but yes, I think UK ends up No. 2 in the South.
How can #11 wvu with wins over Kansas, Baylor, Virginia, Iowa state, Oklahoma state,and k state be a 5 seed? Especially ranked behind a few teams that just lost in their conference tourneys. #11 is grounds for a 3 seed, maybe 4, but if they win the big 12 tourney I would think they have to be in line for a 3 or even 2 depending on the other conference tourney results.
Hi Joe,
Thanks for your interest. I’ll be going through 4-5 lines again today, and WVU most likely ends up on the 4, especially if they win tonight. WVU is a tough resume because of its rather paltry non-conference schedule (No. 236) and it’s three sub-100 losses, including Oklahoma at home. Much the same that UCLA will end up now no higher than a 3 because of its non-conference slate of games.