Thanks again to everyone who stopped in and participated in BRACKETVille’s first year online. It was great fun. Here is a quick recap of my performance compared to the actual NCAA bracket …
- Correctly identified 33 of 34 at-large teams (I don’t count correct predictions of automatic bids). I missed Arizona in favor of Penn State based on several factors, one being that PSU won two meaningful road games (@Michigan State, @Illinois) and Arizona was 2-9 in true road games (@Oregon, @Oregon State).
- I had 34 teams on the correct seed line.
- I had another 21 within one seed of actual. That’s a total of 55 teams either on or within one of their actual seed. Those missing by more than one seed line: VCU (13 vs. 11), Boston College (10 vs. 7), Utah (7 vs. 5), Clemson (5 vs. 7), Cleveland State (11 vs. 13), Cornell (16 vs. 14), Xavier (6 vs. 4), Mississippi State (11 vs. 13), East Tennessee State (14. 16).
- Correctly identified all three top seed lines. I flipped UNC and Pittsburgh in the East vs. South.
I’ll provide some thoughts about the matchups and offer some picks for the actual bracket soon. I’ll also do some blogging updates during the tournament. During the “off-season” I hope to make some upgrades and expand the blog.
If you have suggestions, please send a rebound. – Dave
Just over an hour until the Selection Committee reveals is 2009 Field of 65 and the Madness Begins. It has been great fun going online for the first time. I think everyone whose taken a peak, sent a rebound, and been part of the fun. Hopefully, you’ve enjoyed BracketVILLE ’09.
FINAL BRACKET is now posted in Bracketology.
I will not be surprised nor disappointed at the results. How each committee member evaluated several flawed teams will be interesting. Here are the my final results …
LAST 5 IN: Dayton, Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Penn State
LAST 5 OUT: Creighton, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Arizona, Auburn
Mississippi State took a final spot by beating Tennessee in the SEC title game. I ultimately stuck with Penn State because of its 6 wins over Top 50 RPI teams (most on the bubble) and two big road wins that no one else had. This overcame a horrible non-conference SOS.
Over the years, I’ve been pretty successful – missing more than one at-large team only once in seven years. But it’s truly more about the journey. I have great respect for the men and women who make the decisons and do not necessarily try to predict what they will do. Have thoughts – please Send a Rebound.
I’ll provide my tournament picks this week. And a recap either later tonight or Monday. – Dave the Bracketguy.
It’s finally here. Selection Sunday. One wild ride ends and another is about to begin. Here are some quick takes as we enter the day, and some thoughts on the tight bubble picture …
- Mississippi State is the only wildcard left. They have to win to get in. The final bubble team – whomever that is – will be rooting hard for Rocky Top Tennessee today.
- Akron (MAC), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC), Cal-Northridge (Big West), Temple (Atlantic 10), and Utah State (WAC) all locked up automatic bids. Utah State’s victory relieves some real pressure on the Committee to make a tough decision with the Aggies.
- Louisville locked up a No. 1 seed by winning the Big East tourney and Big East regular season titles. Indianapolis or Memphis? That’ll be a subjective call for the Committee.
- Southern Cal took an at-large spot after a stirring rally to beat Arizona State. That spot may very well have belonged to Arizona.
- I won’t be shocked if Memphis is a No. 1 seed in the West, but clearly the body of work favors Connecticut. The only real argument is whether you believe the loss of Jerome Dyson has hindered the Huskies to a point they are no longer the same team.
What about the Bubble? How do you decide among Creighton, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Penn State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Dayton, Arizona, and Auburn? It comes down to what each individual person values most. What’s most important?
- Road wins? Eliminate Arizona, Maryland, and perhaps Wisconsin
- Quality wins? Favors Penn State, Arizona, Maryland (Top 50)
- Schedule strength? Favors Wisconsin and Arizona
- Last 12 games? Favors Creighton (11-1), San Diego State (8-4), Auburn (9-3)
- In-conference SOS? Favors Maryland (9), Auburn (33), Wisconsin (47)
- Adjusted Scoring Margin? Favors San Diego State (9.5), Auburn (8.8). Creighton (8.5)
- Number of sub-100 wins? Hurts Dayton (18), Penn State (15), St. Mary’s (21), Creighton (17), Auburn (15)
- Consistency? Favors Creighton, St.Mary’s, Dayton
That’s how cloudy it is. And it might simply come down to an “eye test.” Who do you think is better? Nothing is more subjective than that. Our final bracket will reflect how we view it, not necessarily what we think the Committee will do. – Dave the Bracketguy.
Mid-afternoon and bubble teams everywhere are getting more nervous by the minute. At least one of the teams currently in our projected field will leave once the Atlantic 10 final is complete. Another could yet be stolen in the SEC (Mississippi State beat LSU to advance to the championship). There’s also USC in the Pac 10. Memphis clobbered Tulsa to eliminate the Golden Hurricanes. Congratulations to Binghamton – winners of the America East conference – on their first ever NCAA bid.
The latest Bracket Projection (3/14) is now posted in Bracketology. It was posted at 3:10 p.m. (ET). I may try to provide an update early Sunday before posting my final bracket late afternoon. Update … You may see a couple of potential rematches in the first two rounds. The Committee tries to avoid this, but it’s not a hard-and-fast rule. Some of this will fix itself come Sunday. Conference conflicts in the Big 10 have created havoc with so many teams bunched on the S-curve.
Some tweaking will occur as final profiles are available. It will be easier to more thoroughly evalute seed lines and build the bracket. More quick hitters to come in Around the Rim (ATR) as the day progresses. As always … Send a Rebound – Dave the Bracketguy.
Friday the 13th provided all sorts of bad – and potentially worse – news for teams on the 2009 NCAA Tournament bubble. As of early Saturday morning, theses are nervous times for bubble teams here at Around the Rim (ATR). Our next projected bracket (March 14) will be out today. As a quick note … the Conference Tourney page and Schedule page are updated through Friday’s games.
Who should be nervous? Several teams from the Big 10 and ACC, Creighton, Arizona, any SEC team not named LSU or Tennessee, Dayton, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, New Mexico, and Utah State if the Aggies don’t win the Big West. Following is a quick take on the updated bubble picture … Read more…
Wow! What a Thursday. The Big 12 fell apart (except for Missouri), Connecticut and Syracuse went six overtimes, Louisville moved up to a No. 1 seed, and several more bubble teams took a tumble.
Our March 13 bracket projection is now in Bracketology.
As we head into today’s action. Michigan State and Duke are still alive for potential No. 1 seeds. Oklahoma is likely now out of the running. Connecticut could also drop. They are very strong, but not quite the same without Jerome Dyson. Our last team in today: San Diego State. Our first team out: Arizona.
Bubble Banter is also updated. As is today’s Schedule. More to come later in an Around the Rim column. Frequent updates this evening and early Saturday. Send a Rebound if you like – Dave the Bracketguy.
Mike Singletary of Texas Tech scored 29 straight points in the second half to help Texas Tech rally and upset Texas A&M in the Big 12’s opening round late last night. How does the loss affect A&M? Right now, the Aggies’ non-conference wins over LSU and Arizona, combined with league wins over Missouri and Oklahoma State (split with OSU) are helping – as is an RPI of 34. However, losing so early (when not a lock) could prove costly. The picture will be more clear after quarterfinals today in the Big East, Mountain West, and Pac-10, and opening rounds in the Big Ten and ACC. Several other potential bubble teams play. If they all keep winning, resume comparisons change.
Also of note last night … Portland State (Big Sky) and Robert Morris (NEC) punched dance cards.
Several key games ahead today … please check Schedule to see the list.
Notre Dame officially says goodbye to the NCAAs and hello to the NIT. The Irish had to beat West Virginia. The Big 10 will be especially noteworthy today. Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State (all bubble teams) play opening round games. Northwestern and Penn State are most at risk. Minnesota will be sweating, too, if they lose to Northwestern in the 8-9 game. In the Mountain West, the UNLV–San Diego State game is likely an elimination. The game is on the Rebels’ home floor.
The latest bracket projection will be updated today (later) – as will Bubble Banter. Thanks, and as always – Send a Rebound: Dave the Bracketguy.