Posts Tagged ‘2009 NCAA Tournament Projections’

Bracketology – 2009 Results

March 17, 2009 Leave a comment

Thanks again to everyone who stopped in and participated in BRACKETVille’s first year online. It was great fun. Here is a quick recap of my performance compared to the actual NCAA bracket …

  • Correctly identified 33 of 34 at-large teams (I don’t count correct predictions of automatic bids). I missed Arizona in favor of Penn State based on several factors, one being that PSU won two meaningful road games (@Michigan State, @Illinois) and Arizona was 2-9 in true road games (@Oregon, @Oregon State).
  • I had 34 teams on the correct seed line.
  • I had another 21 within one seed of actual. That’s a total of 55 teams either on or within one of their actual seed. Those missing by more than one seed line: VCU (13 vs. 11), Boston College (10 vs. 7), Utah (7 vs. 5), Clemson (5 vs. 7), Cleveland State (11 vs. 13), Cornell (16 vs. 14), Xavier (6 vs. 4), Mississippi State (11 vs. 13), East Tennessee State (14. 16).
  • Correctly identified all three top seed lines. I flipped UNC and Pittsburgh in the East vs. South.

I’ll provide some thoughts about the matchups and offer some picks for the actual bracket soon. I’ll also do some blogging updates during the tournament. During the “off-season” I hope to make some upgrades and expand the blog.

If you have suggestions, please send a rebound. – Dave

Categories: Current Updates

Bracketology: Selection Sunday – Final

March 15, 2009 Leave a comment

Just over an hour until the Selection Committee reveals is 2009 Field of 65 and the Madness Begins.  It has been great fun going online for the first time.  I think everyone whose taken a peak, sent a rebound, and been part of the fun.  Hopefully, you’ve enjoyed BracketVILLE ’09.

FINAL BRACKET is now posted in Bracketology.

I will not be surprised nor disappointed at the results.  How each committee member evaluated several flawed teams will be interesting.   Here are the my final results …

LAST 5 IN: Dayton, Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Penn State

LAST 5 OUT: Creighton, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Arizona, Auburn

Mississippi State took a final spot by beating Tennessee in the SEC title game.  I ultimately stuck with Penn State because of its 6 wins over Top 50 RPI teams (most on the bubble) and two big road wins that no one else had.  This overcame a horrible non-conference SOS. 

Over the years, I’ve been pretty successful – missing more than one at-large team only once in seven years.  But it’s truly more about the journey.  I have great respect for the men and women who make the decisons and do not necessarily try to predict what they will do.  Have thoughts – please Send a Rebound.

I’ll provide my tournament picks this week.  And a recap either later tonight or Monday.  – Dave the Bracketguy.

Categories: Current Updates, Team News

ATR: Morning update – Selection Sunday

March 15, 2009 Leave a comment

It’s finally here.  Selection Sunday.  One wild ride ends and another is about to begin.  Here are some quick takes as we enter the day, and some thoughts on the tight bubble picture …

  • Mississippi State is the only wildcard left.  They have to win to get in.  The final bubble team – whomever that is – will be rooting hard for Rocky Top Tennessee today.
  • Akron (MAC), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC), Cal-Northridge (Big West), Temple (Atlantic 10), and Utah State (WAC) all locked up automatic bids.  Utah State’s victory relieves some real pressure on the Committee to make a tough decision with the Aggies.
  • Louisville locked up a No. 1 seed by winning the Big East tourney and Big East regular season titles. Indianapolis or Memphis?  That’ll be a subjective call for the Committee.
  • Southern Cal took an at-large spot after a stirring rally to beat Arizona State.  That spot may very well have belonged to Arizona.
  • I won’t be shocked if Memphis is a No. 1 seed in the West, but clearly the body of work favors Connecticut.  The only real argument is whether you believe the loss of Jerome Dyson has hindered the Huskies to a point they are no longer the same team.

What about the Bubble?  How do you decide among Creighton, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Penn State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Dayton, Arizona, and Auburn?  It comes down to what each individual person values most.  What’s most important?

  • Road wins?  Eliminate Arizona, Maryland, and perhaps Wisconsin
  • Quality wins?  Favors Penn State, Arizona, Maryland (Top 50)
  • Schedule strength? Favors Wisconsin and Arizona
  • Last 12 games?  Favors Creighton (11-1), San Diego State (8-4), Auburn (9-3)
  • In-conference SOS?  Favors Maryland (9), Auburn (33), Wisconsin (47)
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin?  Favors San Diego State (9.5), Auburn (8.8). Creighton (8.5)
  • Number of sub-100 wins?  Hurts Dayton (18), Penn State (15), St. Mary’s (21), Creighton (17), Auburn (15)
  • Consistency?  Favors Creighton, St.Mary’s, Dayton

That’s how cloudy it is.  And it might simply come down to an “eye test.”  Who do you think is better?  Nothing is more subjective than that.  Our final bracket will reflect how we view it, not necessarily what we think the Committee will do.  – Dave the Bracketguy.

Categories: Current Updates, Team News

Bracketology: March 14 update …

March 14, 2009 Leave a comment

Mid-afternoon and bubble teams everywhere are getting more nervous by the minute.  At least one of the teams currently in our projected field will leave once the Atlantic 10 final is complete.  Another could yet be stolen in the SEC (Mississippi State beat LSU to advance to the championship).  There’s also USC in the Pac 10.  Memphis clobbered Tulsa to eliminate the Golden Hurricanes.  Congratulations to Binghamtonwinners of the America East conference – on their first ever NCAA bid.

The latest Bracket Projection (3/14) is now posted in Bracketology.  It was posted at 3:10 p.m. (ET).  I may try to provide an update early Sunday before posting my final bracket late afternoon.   Update … You may see a couple of potential rematches in the first two rounds.   The Committee tries to avoid this, but it’s not a hard-and-fast rule.  Some of this will fix itself come Sunday.  Conference conflicts in the Big 10 have created havoc with so many teams bunched on the S-curve.

Some tweaking will occur as final profiles are available.  It will be easier to more thoroughly evalute seed lines and build the bracket.  More quick hitters to come in Around the Rim (ATR) as the day progresses.  As always … Send a Rebound – Dave the Bracketguy.

Categories: Current Updates

ATR: Nervous times for bubble teams …

March 14, 2009 Leave a comment

Friday the 13th provided all sorts of bad – and potentially worse – news for teams on the 2009 NCAA Tournament bubble.  As of early Saturday morning, theses are nervous times for bubble teams here at Around the Rim (ATR).   Our next projected bracket (March 14) will be out today.  As a quick note … the Conference Tourney page and Schedule page are updated through Friday’s games. 

Who should be nervous?  Several teams from the Big 10 and ACC, Creighton, Arizona, any SEC team not named LSU or Tennessee, Dayton, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, New Mexico, and Utah State if the Aggies don’t win the Big West.  Following is a quick take on the updated bubble picture … Read more…