Another Selection Sunday is coming to a close. The actual 2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been revealed. So the questions is …. how did our projection end up?
Here are the details (updated)…
- Correctly selected all 36 at-large teams (36/36)
- 44 teams were seeded on the correct seed line
- 21 teams were seeded within one line of correct seed line
- 3 teams were within two seed lines
- Total … 65/68 teams either on or within one seed line
A huge thanks to everyone who visits the site and participates in the process. You are the reason I do this. I love talking brackets and hoops with fellow college basketball fans. It should be a great tournament. The Madness is about to begin.
The final Saturday of the regular season is upon us. Which means Championship Week is officially here. Were it not for NCAA tournament itself, this would arguably be one of the best weeks in sports. So much rides on every outcome, especially for those teams fighting for dance tickets. Friday night gave us a glimpse of the perils ahead, as Ohio Valley Conference favorite Belmont was bounced in the OVC tournament semifinals. With that, here are the latest updates:
As this is Quick Takes, we won’t go in-depth. But here are a few highlights and questions regarding the next eight days… Read more…
Even with a weak bubble that features a host of double-digit loss resumes, a couple of surprising bubble teams have re-emerged: Illinois and Vanderbilt. With improved play and strong SOS numbers, neither should be discounted if they keep up momentum. This morning, both have nine (9) Top 100 wins and Top 20 schedules. In fact, Vandy owns the nation’s No. 5 overall schedule and No. 1 non-conference SOS. Historically, such numbers have given teams a little more leeway when it comes to losses. The question is exactly how much? A team with 15 losses has never received an invitation (unless winning their conference tourney).
Editor’s note: A reader noted my original statistic was derived pre-2011 data, which is correct. It used to be rare for 14-loss teams to receive at-large bids (prior to 2011, it only happened six times). More recently, in 2011, as an example, five teams received at-large bids with 14 losses. Sorry for the confusion. Read more…
The bank was open Wednesday night in Syracuse. John Gillon’s three-pointer at the buzzer lifted Syracuse over Duke at the Carrier Dome and back (again) into the bracket. It’s been a wild month for the Orange who now need to close the deal. It was also a big night for Providence, who used a Kyron Cartwright trey to knock off Creighton in Omaha. And then Dillon Brooks nailed a long-distance dagger to beat California and leave the Bears teetering for bracket survival as February comes to a close. Are we ready for March yet?
No changes on the No. 1 seed line. By a whisker, Villanova holds onto the overall No. 1 seed after its second loss to Butler, a team whose profile is far better than its AP ranking. Kansas, North Carolina, and Gonzaga round out the group. UNC moves up to No. 3 after dispatching Louisville.
If last night was any indication, it’s going to be a fun late-season ride to Selection Sunday.
Road wins are like gold, especially in late February, especially when you’ve spent portions of the season hovering around the bubble. Monday night, Miami and Iowa State grabbed slivers of gold, and in the process, inched closer to wrapping up NCAA tournament bids.
After winning at Texas Tech, ISU is 10-5 in the Big 12 and 8-7 vs. Top 100 RPI teams. This month, the Cyclones have road wins at Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech. With Baylor, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia still on the schedule, the road isn’t easy. But it would likely take an unexpected U-turn for ISU to miss the Field of 68.
Miami’s victory at struggling Virginia was perhaps even more important, regardless of the visual carnage at times. Here’s why: The Hurricanes’ non-conference schedule ranked 250-plus, with their best NC win being Stanford … the win guarantees Miami at least a 9-9 finish in the ACC … and the ‘Canes closing schedule includes Duke at home, followed by trips to Virginia Tech and Florida State. For all those reasons, Miami is now in a better position to either hold on or make a move into the top half of the bracket. Read more…
In the spirit of March, congratulations to the Monmouth Hawks, the first NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball team to clinch a regular-season conference title (MAAC). By do so, the Hawks guarantee themselves a post-season berth. They narrowly missed the NCAA tournament last year as an at-large team. Motivation will be high at the MAAC tournament with another Dance card at stake.
Quick Takes from Thursday:
- Michigan grabbed a critical home win against Wisconsin. The Wolverines close with 4 of 5 on the road, where they’ve managed a 1-6 record.
- Wisconsin likely needs to find wins over Maryland and Purdue down the stretch (including B10 tourney) to secure a Top 5 seed. Otherwise, the Badgers’ top-end profile could relegate them to a slightly lesser seed on Selection Sunday.
- Smooth night out West as Gonzaga, Oregon, and Arizona all roll to wins.
We can identify teams like SMU, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech as recent casualties of weak non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS) numbers on Selection Sunday. The Selection Committee has repeatedly sent messages to teams who schedule heavy doses of non-conference games against the bottom third of the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI): stay clear of the bubble or risk being left out.
With that as a backdrop, here are six teams currently on the Bubble with either potential NC SOS trouble and/or a large number of non-conference games against the bottom end of Division 1. As part of the exercise, each of these team’s record minus those 200-plus NC RPI wins is noted in parenthesis … Read more…