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Bracketology: New list of No. 1 seeds

November 29, 2022 Leave a comment

home-tournament-64-thumb.jpgFresh off an incredible Feast Week of college hoops, we have a new group of teams on the No. 1 seed line: Arizona, Virginia, Purdue and Texas.  Early projections are always a mixed bag, but finding a collection of November resumes better than Arizona, Virginia and Purdue is a tough task.

Bracketology
Seed List

Houston opened the season on the top line and may well return.  To date, however, the Cougars best wins are Oregon and Kent State.  It’s not Houston’s fault the Ducks have staggered out the gate, but it’s reality.  Putting it another way, Houston hasn’t done anything to fall, but several other teams put passed them with stronger early profiles.  Soon enough, the Cougars host Alabama and travel to Virginia.  Opportunity awaits.

Keep in mind, it’s still November.  Current standing is not necessarily an indicator of future results. Some teams have yet to be truly tested.  Others have quality losses.

QT: Maui and Mississippi State

November 22, 2022 Leave a comment

QuickTakesCreighton and San Diego State posted key wins at the Maui Invitational on Monday.  The Bluejays passed their first test of the season against Texas Tech.  The Aztecs took down Ohio State, adding the Buckeyes to an early victory list that includes BYU and Stanford.  Today: Creighton squares off against Arkansas; SDSU gets Arizona.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech is now in an unenviable spot.  By losing to Creighton, the Red Raiders face Louisville and the winner of Cincinnati-Ohio State on Wednesday.  If it’s UC, TTU could end up facing two team with losing records.

Mississippi State, the final at-large team selection in Monday’s (way too early) bracket projection, edged Marquette to move to 5-0 on the season.  MSU’s other notable win came against Akron in Philadelphia; the Zips throttled Western Kentucky Monday in Grand Cayman.  The Bulldogs could well be 10-0 before their schedule picks up. Read more…

SL: Fallout from a wild Saturday

February 27, 2022 Leave a comment

SeedListGraphicWhat a Saturday!

In nearly two decades of projecting NCAA Tournament brackets, never have all four No. 1 seeds lost on the same day – and in succession.  Furthermore, of the top seven teams on Saturday morning’s seed list, six of them absorbed defeats.  Baylor rallied past Kansas in a showcase between two teams who could both still end up as top seeds when the Selection Committee releases its 2022 tournament bracket.  The Bears and Jayhawks split their season series, each winning at home.

Seed List

Where does that leave us?  For starters, with an interesting and heated race for exactly how the No. 1 and No. 2 seed lines emerge on Selection Sunday.  It matters for regional placement, and it matters for pod location preference, potentially.  March is two days away. Read more…

Bracketology: Arizona in position for a No. 1 seed

February 15, 2022 Leave a comment

Dave2015If one were hedging bets, Arizona as a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday would be worth a long look. While the Pac-12 doesn’t offer the type of NET victories found in the Big 12, Big 10 or SEC, it also offers much less resistance.  Take a look at the Wildcats’ schedule between now and the Pac-12 tournament: there’s a strong possibility that Arizona enters post-season play with a 28-2 record. WIth that resume, and an elite NET rating, there is almost no scenario in which the Wildcats would not be a top-line seed, even with a loss in the league tourney.

Bracketology
Seed List

Who else is in the No. 1 seed discussion?
For many of the same reasons given about Arizona, Gonzaga feels like a near lock, too.  Thus, the real battle might be for the West Region.  Here are the other No. 1 seed candidates this morning: Auburn, Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue and Baylor.  We’ll have to see how the season-ending injury to Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua impacts the Bears in the closing weeks.  Prayers for a full recovery.  Duke is still in the conversation but will likely need help – and more dominant play – to move past the others.  If the Blue Devils sweep the remainder of their regular-season games, they would enter the ACC tournament at  27-4.  Stay tuned.

Bracketology: Stretch run for No. 1 seeds

February 4, 2022 Leave a comment

Dave2015As we head into the first weekend of February, Auburn and Gonzaga are the strongest bets to retain No. 1 seed status a month from now.  That leaves two positions open for the stretch run.  This morning, those spots are occupied by Baylor and Kansas.  While possible, it’s unlikely both ultimately end up on the top line together.

Bracketology
Seed List

Who are the other contenders?  Let’s take a quick peek (in no particular order):

Purdue – The Boilermakers own favorable metrics and performance numbers, and are the loss at Rutgers away from being on the No. 1 line today.  The Big Ten also allows for plenty of Quad 1/2 opportunities between now and Selection Sunday. Read more…