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Posts Tagged ‘Bracket Bits’

Bracket Bits: Bubble brewing in the Big East

March 1, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015It wasn’t a particularly good night for the Big East.  Yes, the league’s top two teams won – Xavier bested Providence at home; Villanova survived at Seton Hall.  But those victories – while good for XU’s and Nova’s No. 1 seed hopes – also impacted the resumes of the Friars and Pirates.  Meanwhile, in New York, Butler lost in overtime to St. John’s – meaning the Bulldogs have lost to both Georgetown (home) and St. John’s (road) in their past four games.  All is not well, as they say.

Here’s a quick peek at the aforementioned Big East trio … Read more…

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Bracket Bits: What’s next for Texas?

February 27, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015What’s next for Texas?  It’s an important question for the Longhorns, who fell to 17-13 (7-10 in Big 12) after losing at Kansas on Monday.  The loss – especially without Mo Bamba – was almost predictable, but it does create a scenario in which the Longhorns face a 14-loss campaign unless they win Saturday at home against West Virginia and sweep through the Big 12 tournament.  Neither of those options is guaranteed, or even likely.  So, what’s next for Texas?  There’s no definite answer until we see how the next two weeks play out.  At quick glance, it would be best for the Longhorns to find two more wins, however they arrive.

Seed List  Read more…

Bracket Bits: Oklahoma needs a U-Turn

February 20, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015With their losing streak now at six games (and 7 of 8 overall), the Oklahoma Sooners need a U-Turn.  The equity they built up by winning 14 of 16 games to open the season?  It’s dwindling.  The cache they built up by the Selection Committee anchoring them as a 4-seed during its mid-February Top 4 seed reveal?  That was three losses ago.  While conference record isn’t the measuring stick it once was, history suggests there are still limits to league under-performance.  Unless the Sooners win two of their last three – and they get Kansas State and Iowa State at home in that stretch – Oklahoma is looking at a Big 12 finish of 7-11 or, even, gulp, 6-12.  That isn’t the type of impression they want to leave on the table come Selection Sunday.   Read more…

Bracket Bits: Kansas State’s tricky profile

January 23, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015With a non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) ranked in the 330-range, Kansas State’s NCAA profile presents an interesting dichotomy for those of us in the bracket business.  On one hand, we have a KSU team with “Quadrant 1” wins over Oklahoma and TCU, a 4-2 road record that includes solid (Quadrant 2) wins at Baylor and Iowa State, and a team that has a one-point loss at Kansas and two-point loss to Arizona State on a neutral floor. The only real hiccup is a loss to Tulsa – which certainly isn’t a game-changer.

Several of the metric models mentioned as “under consideration” by the Selection Committee also trend in K-State’s favor.  Examples as of this morning (Jan. 23):

  • BPI (ESPN): 39
  • SOR (ESPN): 35 / Strength of Record
  • Ken Pom: 32
  • Sagarin: 33

Read more…

Bracket Bits: Metrics and the top two lines

January 20, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015So … the NCAA is considering including a variety of new metrics into its selection and seeding process.  As individual members, a wide range of metrics have been available to selection committee members for years; so this is nothing new.  What will be interesting is exactly how the metrics are used and applied.  We’ll all have a learning curve.

As a brief exercise, the table below shows the various metrics and composite for the top eight (8) teams on our seed list as of the Friday, January 19 bracket.  I’ve included the metrics noted by the NCAA:  RPI, BPI (ESPN), SOR (Strength of Record), KPI (Ken Pom), SAG (Saragin), COMP – Composite average. Read more…

Bracket Bits: Western KY and mid-major at-large hopefuls

January 13, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015If you’re looking for an early mid-major team that could potentially steal an at-large bid on Selection Sunday, look no further than Bowling Green, Kentucky.  That’s the home of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.  Think back to the Bahamas: WKU left Atlantis with victories over Purdue and SMU, and a respectable loss to Villanova.  Since, SMU has dropped a bit, but it remains a viable non-conference win, nonetheless.  Here’s a quick peek at WKU’s current situation:

Resume Builders: 

  • Wins over Purdue and SMU (as noted) on a neutral court;
  • Top 25 NC SOS
  • Road wins at Old Dominion and Marshall (solid league W’s)
  • One-point loss at Wisconsin in a somewhat controversial finish

Read more…

Bracket Bits: Top 5 matchups of New Year’s weekend

December 28, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015New Year’s weekend is a cornucopia for college sports fans – bowl games on the turf and bracket games on the hardwood.  Whether because of rivalry or projected importance, here are my Top 5 matchups of New Year’s weekend …

Arizona State at Arizona (Saturday, Dec. 30) – The Pac-12 title could end up being decided by these in-state rivals.  ASU has been this season’s biggest surprise. Arizona stumbled out of the gate, but has since righted the ship, winning seven straight against teams that include UNLV, Texas AM, and Alabama.  Thus, the winner gets an early leg-up in what could be a two-horse Pac-12 race.  The return game in Tempe is February 15.  Circle that one, too. Read more…