Posts Tagged ‘Bracketology’

Bracketology: The Results

March 15, 2021 Leave a comment

Dave2015With great appreciation for the season played and the tournament ahead, one question remains: How did this year’s bracket projection measure up?  Here are the results (Updated following a second review today):

  • Correctly selected 67/68 teams (36/37 at-large bids) – missed Louisville vs. Wichita St;
  • Correctly seeded 48 teams on the actual seed line;
  • Had an additional 13 teams within one of actual seed
  • For 2021: Correctly selected 3/4 replacement teams (First Out, again swap Wichita and Louisville)
  • Paymon Score: 358

For comparison purposes, this year’s results show well, having 62 teams either correctly seeded or within one.
More importantly, it was another great season for interaction with you, college basketball and NCAA tournament fans.  Your ongoing interest and support is incredible.  Thank you.

Selection Sunday: Bracket Bits

March 14, 2021 Leave a comment

Dave2015Welcome to Selection Sunday.  This morning’s Bracket and Seed List are posted.  Beyond that, today’s first Bracket Bit is that my Twitter feed was temporarily Locked this morning and access for posting hasn’t yet returned.  Apparently, including a note about a list of bubble teams upset an algorithm.  Oh well, we’re moving on.  I will miss the interactions, as that is one of the best parts of this little adventure.

What’s in play on Sunday:

  • Cincinnati can “steal” one more at-large bid with a victory over Houston in the American championship.  Part of the afternoon will be spent preparing an alternate bracket should such a scenario occur.
  • As usual, Saturday’s developments affected a handful of teams.  This year’s group most likely includes Drake, Utah State, Colorado State, Boise State, Wichita State, Saint Louis and Ole Miss.  Entering Saturday, the bracket offered hospitality to four of them; this morning it was down to two.  It could yet be one.  Could that group include Louisville, Syracuse or UCLA?  Sure.  Historical precedent tends to favor power-conference teams, however, fair or unfair.
  • Final update will be posted later this afternoon.

Bracketology: Positioning Day

March 12, 2021 Leave a comment

Dave2015Saturday is known as Moving Day at The Masters.  Friday of Championship Week is much the same for college hoops – we’ll call it Positioning Day.  From the Big Ten to the SEC to the Big 12 and Pac-12, today will help decipher how a few key junction points might unfold – such as the final two seed and top three seed; or the narrow bridge between being a five or six seed on Sunday evening.

Seed List

It’s also a Positioning Day along the cutline.  Ole Miss faces LSU in the final SEC quarterfinal game tonight.  We also have a showdown between Colorado State and Utah State in the Mountain West; with Nevada trying to play its way into the MWC title game.  The American Conference quarterfinals feature three additional bubble teams: Wichita State, Memphis and SMU.  If all survive, Saturday’s semifinals may well determine whom joins Houston in the Field of 68.  At least one bid thief will be viable from the Big East this weekend, with Georgetown and Seton Hall playing for a right engage in the tournament championship.

Saturday is also a Scrub the Seed List day – as more teams complete their profiles.  The underlying unknown in all of this remains the potential impact of COVID testing.  It’s been a rough week for the ACC tournament; we’ll see if those developments ultimately impact the bracket.

Bracketology: A bubbly week ahead

March 8, 2021 Leave a comment

Dave2015Expect a Championship Week filled with bubble turmoil.


Over the years, I’ve learned not to overanalyze nor overly agonize about the last couple of teams in and the first couple of teams out on the Monday before Selection Sunday.  There are simply too many variables in play; it’s more about defining parameters.  What we do know is that Drake is finished and begins a lengthy wait, hoping its profile holds up.  We also have a tightly bunched trio from the Mountain West.  It’s seems unlikely that all three will join San Diego State.  Then we have Ole Miss and Syracuse, who have both seen their chances improve as teams around them fall.

Will someone from the American upset Houston?  Could BYU or Gonzaga lose tonight in the WCC?  Will St. John’s or NC State catch fire in their league tournaments?  And how will the Selection Committee handle a team like Maryland if the Terrapins fall in their Big Ten tourney opener to Michigan State?  A loss would leave the Terps at 14-13 overall.  A team with that type of overall mark has never before earned an at-large bid.  Perhaps is apropos that we see the Committee wrestle with unprecedented profiles during an unprecedented season.

Bracketology: Illinois joins No. 1 seeds

March 3, 2021 Leave a comment

Dave2015Fresh off an impressive victory in Ann Arbor, Illinois retains its position as a No. 1 seed in today’s bracket update.  The Illini now own nine Quadrant 1 wins and have a chance at Ohio State this weekend to solidify a spot on the top line heading into the Big Ten tournament next week in Indianapolis.  No changes elsewhere: Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan lead Regions 1-3.

Seed List

Bubble teams continue to ebb and flow, which is nothing new.  The latest Bubble Talk outlines 30 teams with “Work to Do” between now and Selection Sunday. with a projected 16 spots available.  With conference tournament play underway or starting soon, bubble teams will be hoping several leagues stick somewhat to script.