Posts Tagged ‘Bubble Teams’

Bracketology: Battle for No. 1 Seeds

March 14, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015The Battle for No. 1 Seeds revs up today as three candidates take the floor in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament.  Virginia, North Carolina and Duke begin their post-season treks with eyes on the East and South Regions, in particular.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Tomorrow, SEC candidates Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU hit the court in Nashville.  As do Big Ten contenders Michigan State and Michigan in Chicago.

It’s also a busy day along the bubble.  The next 48 hours are critical for a list of teams too long to mention.  Action also continues in the Mid-American Conference, where bubble teams will be rooting for Buffalo to win the league’s automatic bid.

Bracketology: Keep an eye on LSU

March 7, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015Keep an eye on LSU.  The Tigers continue inching their way up the seed list, grabbing the final No. 2 seed this morning, passing Michigan State.  Following last night’s win at Florida, the Bayou Bengals are 9-2 vs. Quad 1 teams, including wins over both Tennessee and Kentucky, and are 9-1 in true road games.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

For various reasons, next week’s SEC tournament in Nashville will be worth the price of admission.  Tennessee and Kentucky are jockeying for No. 1 seeds; and what if LSU wins the SEC tourney, beating Kentucky and/or Tennessee again?  They would have to be in the discussion, right?

It was a mixed night on the bubble, with Seton Hall winning a huge home game against Marquette.  It was an equally rough night for North Carolina State, who lost at home to Georgia Tech.  The Wolfpack are squarely on the cutline heading into the ACC tournament.


Quick Takes: Trouble brewing for Texas, TCU

March 5, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015There’s no other way to say it … trouble is brewing for Texas and TCU.  If either, or both, want to find themselves in the 2019 NCAA tournament bracket, there’s work to be done.

Let’s start with Texas:
It’s easy to look at the Longhorns’ wins over North Carolina, Purdue, and Kansas (as examples) and forget these two other relevant resume factors … Texas has lost to four (4) non-tournament teams (including 2 Quad 3 – Radford, Providence at home) and is 2-8 in road games.  At 16-14 overall, it’s also time to remember that it’s exceedingly rare for a team that is only two games over. 500 to receive an at-large bid (Georgia did it once with a No. 1 SOS), and 15 is the most losses ever for an at-large bid (Vanderbilt, Alabama). Texas is knocking on both doors.
Where does that leave the Horns? … Texas likely has to win at least two more games to finish 18-15.  And that might not be enough.  Keep in mind, we’re likely to lose an at-large spot or two during Championship Week. Read more…

Bracket Bits: Weekend bubble watch

March 1, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s a big weekend for bubble teams.  March has arrived, and time is running short.

Next week, conference tournaments begin for several small and mid-major leagues – leading us into Championship Week.  With that notice in mind, here are some of the weekend’s most notable bubble opportunities …

Memphis at Cincinnati.  The Tigers have crept back into the at-large picture thanks to a stretch of five wins in six games, an improved NET rating, and a currently advantageous bubble setup.  A road win at UC would give them a worthy addition to a profile that includes victories over UCF and Temple, two other American bubble contenders. Read more…

Quick Takes: How will Florida finish?

February 22, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015How will Florida finish its season?  That’s a huge question for the Gators, who face a tough closing stretch and an ultra-competitive SEC tournament.  Why does it matter?  Because for all of the Gators’ quality wins, they are sliding.  Their record is sliding, their RPI is sliding, and their perception as an NCAA team is sliding.

Since winning at Kentucky on January 20, Florida’s two wins of note are Baylor and LSU, both of which reside along the cutline.  The Gators are 3-6 during that stretch (their other win was South Carolina).  And here’s what lies ahead … Auburn (home), Alabama (road), Kentucky (home).  With a record of 17-11, their margin is sliding, too.  If the Gators win both home games, tensions ease.  That would put them at 19-12 heading into the SEC tournament with enough Quadrant 1/2 wins to easily make the NCAA tournament.  But what if they finish 1-2 in those last three?  Or, gulp, 0-3?  In those scenarios, Florida would enter its conference tourney at 18-13 or 17-14.  Vanderbilt snuck in last year with a loss-heavy profile – largely due to it overall strength of schedule.  But do the Gators want to test that theory again?  How will Florida finish?  It’s a huge question for the Gators to answer these next two weeks. Read more…

Bracketology: Kansas returns to the top line

February 19, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015Kansas is back on the top line.  The Jayhawks’ rally against West Virginia, combined with Auburn’s loss at South Carolina, inched KU back into the lead position out West.  Virginia and Villanova remain anchored in the South and East Regions.  They way it looks right now, we have two undecided No. 1 seeds.  We’ll see if that changes.

Bracketology     |     Seed List

The middle and lower portions of the bracket remain very fluid.  There are a lot of similar resumes bunched together.  The next three weeks – including conference tournaments – will hopefully provide some clarity.  If not, it’s going to be bumpy Selection Sunday for the Committee, and for those of us who try to predict what they’ll do.

Bracketology: Cavaliers stand tall

February 9, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015Yes, Virginia, you are the No. 1 overall seed in today’s bracket. Take a bow, you’ve earned it. The Cavaliers not only keep winning, they’ve just about wrapped up a regular-season ACC title. Think about this … in a deep, talented league, UVA owns a three-game lead on Clemson and a four-game lead on Duke and Miami.  Impressive no matter how you slice it.

Bracketology    |     Seed List

Despite a hiccup each, Villanova and Purdue retain their No. 1 seed positions.  One loss (nor one win) does a resume make.  The Boilermakers can either solidify their spot with a win at Michigan State on Saturday or crack the door further with a loss.

The lower end of the bracket is quirky today with the dearth of ACC teams (10) in the field.  It caused both a procedural bump and a deep dive into the bracketing playbook.