Bracketology: Alabama leads, Northwestern rising

The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee provided us a glimpse of their Top 16 seeds heading into action on Saturday.  To no one’s surprise, Alabama, Houston, Purdue and Kansas enter the stretch run as No. 1 seeds.  Today’s bracket reflects the Committee’s view with one slight adjustment, Kansas State and Iowa State flipped spots on the seed list due to Saturday’s outcome.

Bracketology

Two of the most notable climbers this morning: Northwestern and Kentucky.

Northwestern blew out Iowa in Evanston Sunday evening, moving to 7-4 vs. Quad 1 teams and 3-0 vs. teams in Quad 1A.  The purple Wildcats’ resume includes a win over Purdue and a sweep of Indiana.  We’ll see if Northwestern can finish strong and hold its position.  Thanks to a myriad of similar profiles from seeds Lines 7 to 9 – it was re-ordered several times – Kentucky’s wire-to-wire victory over Tennessee (and season sweep of the Volunteers) pushed UK into the final spot on the 7-seed line.  The Cats were also helped by Maryland’s loss at Nebraska.  UK has quietly compiled nine wins against Quads 1/2, moving them safely into the Field.

The bubble is rather mundane.  Charleston and North Texas are squarely in the mix as teams like Oregon and North Carolina continue to fade.  If the Tar Heels are going to make a late surge, it has to start immediately.

QT: Wild Saturday, Sunday’s Bracket Impact Games

Another tumultuous Saturday in college hoops.  Desperate for more victories, West Virginia and Wisconsin both lost a home.  Kentucky may have punched its ticket by sweeping Tennessee.  Clemson dropped a can’t-lose game at Louisville, a third Quad 4 loss. Utah State rallied and put away a critical home game against Nevada.  Illinois stumbled late at Indiana and missed a golden opportunity to firm up its seeding potential.

The list could go on-an-on …

Oh, and the Selection Committee revealed its initial Top 16, with Kansas fourth (beyond Purdue and Houston) despite having 12 (now 13) Quad 1 victories.  Things that make you go, hmm.  Purdue hosts fading Ohio State today and closes with three of four at home; the Boilermakers lone road trip is to Wisconsin.

Ahead to Sunday’s Bracket Impact Games:

North Carolina at NC State – If North Carolina is going to make a late push, it starts today in Raleigh.  NC State’s bracket status is okay this morning, but a late slide would not be advised.

Bracketology: It’s a bubbly world for Blue Bloods

We have quite a race developing for a couple of No. 1 seed positions.  It’s also a bubbly world for two of college basketball’s signature programs: Kentucky and North Carolina.

Bracketology

As the bubble percolates, resumes continue to evolve.  When profiles are nip-and-tuck, a key result often has a ripple effect.  Thursday night is a perfect example:  Oregon ran away from USC to climb into the First Four.  It’s a result that also indirectly benefits Nevada.  Wisconsin also moves back into the Field of 68 despite a suspect NET rating.  Given other teams along the cutline, the Badgers collection of wins overshadows their metrics.  Ultimately, these decisions took a toll on North Carolina.  The Tar Heels enter the weekend as the First Team OUT.

Among the final three teams IN (Kentucky, Oregon, USC) – all have own a marquee victory.  It’s a separating factor other bubble teams do not (yet) possess.

Final thought: When providing quick turnarounds, slight resume variances can be missed.  Every few days, a deeper review is needed – such was the case Thursday night.  The good news: we’re now in the stretch run.  Time for bubble teams to make their case.  Just remember, more teams play their way out than play their way in.  Enjoy the weekend!

Seed List: Kentucky, Carolina squarely on the bubble

We’re just over a month from Selection Sunday and two teams who began the season with No. 1 seed aspirations are squarely on the bubble: Kentucky and North Carolina.  Both lost Tuesday night: UK at home to Arkansas and UNC at Wake Forest.  Neither loss was particularly competitive nor inspirational.  A four-month season has turned into a four-week race for the Wildcats and Tar Heels.

Seed List Update

Houston and Kansas are hot pursuit of the final No. 1 seed when Friday’s bracket arrives.  An informal Twitter poll on Tuesday heavily favored Kansas’ overall profile.  The Jayhawks own 10 wins against Quad 1 and the No. 1 overall strength of schedule in country.

More bubble action tonight.  Here’s a sneak peak at Wednesday’s Bracket Impact Games:

QT: Arkansas, Nevada, UK win bubble games + BIG’s

Arkansas beat Texas AM.  Nevada toppled San Diego State.  Important home victories for both on Tuesday.  Kentucky earned a must win at Ole Miss.  West Virginia dropped a close game at TCU.  No harm except this: WVU is going to have to start winning at a greater clip down the stretch.  It’s hard for teams to back their way into the NCAA field via a stockpile of “good” losses.

Elsewhere: Kansas exacted revenge on Kansas State.  Alabama took out Saturday’s frustration at Oklahoma by obliterating Vanderbilt.  Clemson lost an ugly game at Boston College, creating a much more anxious month for the Tigers.

Historically, the Selection Committee has valued quality wins more than bad losses (especially a singularly poor game).  Iowa hopes that trend continues.  With a victory over Northwestern, the Hawkeyes are 5-5 vs. Quad 1 and 8-7 vs. Quads 1 and 2 overall.  The blip against Eastern Illinois is still sitting there, but that blip is losing relevance as the season progresses.