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Posts Tagged ‘NCAA Bubble Teams’

Bracketology: So many bubble questions

March 9, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015So many bubble questions.  Where do we start?

Long waits are underway for teams like Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Baylor, and Notre Dame.  So too, now, for Middle Tennessee which exited the Conference USA tournament after an overtime loss to Southern Miss in the quarterfinals.  Thus, the Blue Raiders add themselves to what was already an intriguing group of quality at-large candidates.

Bracketology    |    Seed List

Depending on what happens today in the SEC and Pac-12 tourneys, in particular, we have about 12 teams in play for four spots.  That it’s the first year for the NCAA’s new Quadrant system only adds seasoning to the pot.  Will the Committee reward the overall excellence of Middle Tennessee who has multiple Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 wins – even if those wins aren’t power conference names?  How will the Committee handle the RPI situation of a team like Oklahoma State?  And will that same RPI effect benefit a team like Louisville?  Depending on your take, you can make legitimate cases for and/or against any of the 12.

As with the Committee, it’s time to dig beneath the surface of the bubble contenders during the next 48 hours. Come Sunday, our vantage point may change.

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Bracketology: Big day for Bubble teams

March 8, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s a big day for bubble teams.  Consider these questions: Can Louisville beat Virginia?  Can Marquette beat Villanova?  Can Oklahoma State beat Kansas (for a third time)?  Can Notre Dame beat Duke?  Can Texas beat Texas Tech?  Can Alabama beat Texas AM?  Can Kansas State beat TCU?  These are just a few of the many games to ponder on what could end up being the most crucial day between now and selection weekend. We didn’t even mention Butler and Providence, both of whom could benefit from an opening-round Big East tournament win.

Bracketology     |     Seed List

How will the Selection Committee handle a resume like Oklahoma State’s?  The answer could well depend on the age-old RPI question.  And what about a team like Arizona State – or Oklahoma for that matter – who started out like a whirlwind and finished with very little much air in their sails?

The cutline will likely change, perhaps multiple times, between now and Saturday.  Nothing is locked in place.  Another busy (and likely short) night ahead.

Categories: Current Updates

Bracketology: Virginia holds No. 1 overall seed

March 5, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015Welcome to Championship Week!

Whether it’s a seed line position or a position in the final Field of 68, there’s a lot on the line in the next six days.  If there’s one confident bet it’s this: Virginia will be the No. 1 overall seed come Sunday night.  Villanova and Xavier also look like good wagers, although there are scenarios in which only one of them ends up being a No. 1 seed.  Kansas retains its No. 1 slot out West, with Duke very much in the mix (No. 5 on the seed list).  How Kansas, Duke, Villanova, and Xavier fare in their conference tournaments may well determine how the final one-line looks this weekend.  We can say the same for the two-line with teams like Cincinnati, Auburn, Tennessee, and North Carolina (as examples).

Bracketology   |    Seed List

As for the bubble, let’s just say its highly unsettled.  Multiple teams have an opportunity to play their way in or out come Sunday morning.  Frequent updates this week as teams punch their tickets to the 2018 NCAA tournament and push for a spot in the bracket.  Enjoy.

Bubble Talk: Go-time for SEC, Pac-12, Big 12

February 24, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s go-time for handful of teams in the SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12 as we make a final push toward Selection Sunday.

Bubble Talk

Each of those leagues has multiple teams with work to do, along with the Big East.  The SEC is bunched, with little separating a multitude of hopefuls.  How will Florida and Texas AM, for example, finish out?  And what about Oklahoma?  Can the Sooners end their skid and regain momentum?  There’s a lot left to decide.

Bracketology: Cavaliers stand tall

February 9, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015Yes, Virginia, you are the No. 1 overall seed in today’s bracket. Take a bow, you’ve earned it. The Cavaliers not only keep winning, they’ve just about wrapped up a regular-season ACC title. Think about this … in a deep, talented league, UVA owns a three-game lead on Clemson and a four-game lead on Duke and Miami.  Impressive no matter how you slice it.

Bracketology    |     Seed List

Despite a hiccup each, Villanova and Purdue retain their No. 1 seed positions.  One loss (nor one win) does a resume make.  The Boilermakers can either solidify their spot with a win at Michigan State on Saturday or crack the door further with a loss.

The lower end of the bracket is quirky today with the dearth of ACC teams (10) in the field.  It caused both a procedural bump and a deep dive into the bracketing playbook.

Bracket Bits: The NC SOS / Bubble factor

February 1, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015Welcome to February.  We’ve reached the stretch run; the sprint to the finish line known as Selection Sunday.  The word “Bubble” returns to our regular vocabulary.  We’ll also be reminded of another term – at least if history repeats itself.  That term is non-conference strength of schedule, commonly known among bracket-heads as NC SOS.  On more than one occasion, the Selection Committee has determined that a poor NC SOS is a valid reason to punt a bubble team to the NIT.  With that in mind, here are a few teams that could be at risk if their names remain on the bubble list a month from now …

Houston (NC SOS: 262) – A lot about the Cougars’ profile screams bubble, even a composite of advanced metrics models. Good wins: Wichita State, Arkansas, Providence. Bad loss: Drexel. Reality: Houston’s non-conference schedule includes seven (7) teams in Quadrant 4, none with an RPI better than 200.  Add in South Florida and East Carolina (AAC teams) and 9 of the Cougars’ wins are against Q4. Read more…

Quick Takes: Busy week on the Bubble

February 7, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s a busy week on the Bubble.  For Rhode Island, it’s a double-dip of fun.  The Rams, a member of Monday’s First Four OUT, travels to Massachusetts tonight (Tuesday) and hosts Dayton on Friday.  If URI can handle UMass, it sets up an important resume building opportunity against the Flyers.  The Rams lost a close one at Dayton in early January.  Heading into the week, Rhode Island was 3-7 vs. Top 100 teams, with one NCAA-level (at-large) win: Cincinnati (in November).  It won’t be easy, but a 2-0 week would certainly help the Rams’ positioning.

More of this week’s biggest Bubble games (Bubble teams in Bold): Read more…