Bracket Bits: Trouble brewing for Texas Tech?

As March arrives, so does a question about the at-large status of Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders lost at home to Texas on Saturday, leaving them with some potentially risky profile numbers.  These include a 3-8 record against Quadrant 1, a 7-11 mark against Quads 1/2, and a sub-.500 total against Quads 1-3 (10-11). TTU’s remaining eight wins are against Quad 4, with seven of those coming at home against teams ranked 235 or worse in the NET.

And … the next week is no picnic.  Texas Tech travels to Baylor before ending the season at home against Kansas.  What if the Red Raiders lose both and head to the Big 12 tournament at 18-13?  Solid NET number(s) or not, that’s tricky business.

The good news: TTU’s final two games are also a blessing in disguise.  Winning could undo much, if not all, of the angst heading to Kansas City.

Quick Takes: Championship Week begins

The final Saturday of the regular season is upon us.  Which means Championship Week is officially here.  Were it not for NCAA tournament itself, this would arguably be one of the best weeks in sports.  So much rides on every outcome, especially for those teams fighting for dance tickets.  Friday night gave us a glimpse of the perils ahead, as Ohio Valley Conference favorite Belmont was bounced in the OVC tournament semifinals.  With that, here are the latest updates:

• Seed List
• Bubble Talk

As this is Quick Takes, we won’t go in-depth.  But here are a few highlights and questions regarding the next eight days…

Bracketology: Tar Heels trek to top line

If today were Selection Sunday, and North Carolina was the ACC champion, the Selection Committee would likely be inclined to reward the Tar Heels with a No. 1 seed over a very good Baylor team whose profile is equally impressive but lacks a conference title. In the world of splitting hairs, we just did.  On that note, two interesting twists await.  First, UNC hosts Louisville on Wednesday, and the Cardinals are No. 6 on the Seed List.  If Louisville wins in Chapel Hill, the Cards could make a strong case for the top line on Thursday.  Second, the Tar Heels close with an incredibly tough slate, going to Pittsburgh and Virginia before finishing at home with Duke.  Baylor can easily play its way back up.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

In the race for No. 1 seeds, Villanova and Kansas are sitting in strong positions as the regular season comes to a close. Should Gonzaga finish unbeaten, it would hard to drop the Zags from their No. 1 perch in the West.  Which leaves, at least for now, one top seed up for grabs, and it could go any number of ways.

Another meh and blah weekend along the cutline.  Should we lose solid mid-major programs like Middle Tennessee State, UNC Wilmington, and say, Monmouth or Illinois State during their conference championships, the Committee will have to heavily weigh a bunch of mediocre power teams versus some solid programs who have fewer chances for marquee wins.

Quick Takes: Potential impact of NC SOS

We can identify teams like SMU, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech as recent casualties of weak non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS) numbers on Selection Sunday.  The Selection Committee has repeatedly sent messages to teams who schedule heavy doses of non-conference games against the bottom third of the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI): stay clear of the bubble or risk being left out.

With that as a backdrop, here are six teams currently on the Bubble with either potential NC SOS trouble and/or a large number of non-conference games against the bottom end of Division 1. As part of the exercise, each of these team’s record minus those 200-plus NC RPI wins is noted in parenthesis …

Bracket Bits: Quality wins eluding the Longhorns

Quality wins have largely eluded the Texas Longhorns, and the ensuing holes have created an NCAA tournament resume that today (Feb. 3) would generate a lot of bubble discussion.

The Longhorns’ current RPI (29), BPI (36) and KenPom (26) ratings are plenty good enough. Texas is also 5-4 away from Austin (road/neutral games), and has an overall schedule ranked No. 12 in the country.  Everyone of the Longhorns’ seven losses has come to a quality opponent.  In fact, Texas has not lost to a team that today would not be a projected at-large team in the NCAA Field of 68.  So where’s the problem?

If you look at the other side of the ledger, Texas is 1-7 vs. Top 50 RPI teams and just 3-7 vs. the Top 100.  The Longhorns’ best wins are West Virginia (home) and Iowa (Neutral).  Unfortunately for UT, early wins against California and Connecticut haven’t held up well.  And within the deep Big 12, Texas has limped to a 3-5 start.

With three of the Longhorns’ next four at home, it’s time to make a move.  Two of those home games are against Texas Tech and TCU.  Those are games UT really needs to win.  The closing stretch includes road games at Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas, and home dates with Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State.

The Big 12 offers plenty of opportunities – but wins won’t come easy, and to this point, Texas has missed on most of its high profile chances.  That will need to change in the next month or there could be some nervous Longhorns on Selection Sunday.