Bubble Bits: Georgetown takes down Butler

Georgetown went into Hinkle Fieldhouse on Saturday and exited with a road victory over Butler.  It was arguably the day’s biggest victory amongst teams positioned along the cutline – i.e. the Bubble.

For resume purposes, it marked the Hoyas’ first victory in what the NCAA Team Sheets designate as the upper tier of Quadrant 1.  Games within Quadrants 1 and 2 are broken into two tiers as delineation. That it came on the road is even better.  Although Georgetown now sits at 15-10, the Hoyas own nine Quad 1/2 wins combined. The only caveat to that: Butler and Creighton would be the two tournament-worthy wins within that grouping.

Looking ahead, there’s no let-up on Georgetown’s schedule.  Next up: Providence. Remaining games include Marquette, Xavier, Creighton and Villanova.

Bracketology: Diving into the Bubble

It’s been an interesting week for Bubble teams.  Texas Tech, Virginia and Mississippi State posted key wins.  Many others lost; some to good opponents and others to not-so-strong opponents.  Amid the chaos, a deep dive was required, with more than twenty team resumes parceled apart, trying to separate nuances. The result?

Bracketology

About what you would expect – a quagmire of mediocrity with some good, some bad, and a whole lot of average.  Ten people, such as the Selection Committee, could view the same material and develop different responses as to how teams might be placed on the Seed List.  Not so sure about today’s outcome?  Wait until Monday.

It was a particularly rough week for Stanford, which lost at California on Sunday and at home last night to Oregon State.  Those results leave the Cardinal without a Quad 1 win and two Quad 3 losses.  And with just three Quad 2 wins (only one of which is in today’s bracket) Stanford’s light resume became even lighter.  Every year we have a team whose NET rating doesn’t seem to match its profile.  For now, Stanford fits that bill.

Bracketology: Baylor strengthens its grip on the No. 1 overall seed

Baylor continues to strengthen its grip on the No. 1 overall seed.  The Bears won their fifth true road game (5-0 in opportunities) of the season at Florida on Saturday.  They are No. 1 in the NCAA’s NET ratings, 6-1 in Quadrant 1 games and 10-1 against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents combined.  Baylor hasn’t lost since November 8, a nearly three-month stretch of perfection.

Bracketology

Elsewhere, the top line remains in tact.  There’s room for debate across lines two through four. It’ll be interesting to see how the Selection Committee views the profiles of teams like Florida State, Louisville and Duke in the weeks ahead.  Unless something changes, there will be fewer Quad 1 opportunities in this year’s Atlantic Coast Conference.

Tracking the Bubble is going to keep you busy.  It’s several lines deep into the bracket today.  The margins between a nine seed and an 11-seeded play-in team are minimal.  And that’s not factoring in the next 8-12 teams knocking on the door.

Quick Takes: How will Florida finish?

How will Florida finish its season?  That’s a huge question for the Gators, who face a tough closing stretch and an ultra-competitive SEC tournament.  Why does it matter?  Because for all of the Gators’ quality wins, they are sliding.  Their record is sliding, their RPI is sliding, and their perception as an NCAA team is sliding.

Since winning at Kentucky on January 20, Florida’s two wins of note are Baylor and LSU, both of which reside along the cutline.  The Gators are 3-6 during that stretch (their other win was South Carolina).  And here’s what lies ahead … Auburn (home), Alabama (road), Kentucky (home).  With a record of 17-11, their margin is sliding, too.  If the Gators win both home games, tensions ease.  That would put them at 19-12 heading into the SEC tournament with enough Quadrant 1/2 wins to easily make the NCAA tournament.  But what if they finish 1-2 in those last three?  Or, gulp, 0-3?  In those scenarios, Florida would enter its conference tourney at 18-13 or 17-14.  Vanderbilt snuck in last year with a loss-heavy profile – largely due to it overall strength of schedule.  But do the Gators want to test that theory again?  How will Florida finish?  It’s a huge question for the Gators to answer these next two weeks.

Bubble Bits: Syracuse, Pitt tussle in ACC

It’s fair to say that neither Syracuse nor Pittsburgh is safely in the Field of 68, which makes Wednesday’s early tip at the ACC tournament worth following.  Although the Panthers won both regular season meetings against the Orange, the loser will be nervously awaiting their fate on Selection Sunday.

It’s especially timely given what we’ve seen thus far in Championship Week.  As potential bubble slots disappear, the value of every win increases.

Additional bubble action on Wednesday (March 9) ..

• Washington (vs. Stanford) – The Huskies need a lengthy stay to get back in the conversation; they may need to win the Pac-12 tourney.
• Georgia Tech (vs. Clemson) – First game of the ACC tourney for the Yellow Jackets who are back in the mix after winning 5 of 6 down the stretch.
• USC (vs. UCLA) – Beating their rival may not be required, but it would certainly help ease the Trojans’ nerves. USC has lost 6 of 8 games, and a poor record away from home could become an issue.
• Oregon State (vs. Arizona State) – While overall power numbers help the Beavers, they have not beaten a tournament team away from home. Losing to ASU a second time might not be the best message to leave the Committee.

Although likely above the bubble, it would still be nice to see Texas Tech beat TCU (Big 12) and Colorado beat Washington State (Pac 12).  A lot could still change between now and Saturday night.