Bubble Banter will officially launch on Tuesday, February 1. In preparation and ahead of our newest bracket projection on Monday (Jan. 24), here is an overview of how Bubble Banter is shaping up …
ATLANTIC 10 – With Temple falling behind the pace of early leaders Duquesne and Xavier, there are no secure spots in the A-10. Xavier has a history of winning the regular-season title, with the Owls grabbing the tourney title and automatic bid. It might be the only way the A-10 earns multiple bids.
- Locks: None
- Should Be In: Temple
- Bubble: Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, Duquesne
ACC – It’s pretty much Duke and everyone else. Now, the ACC will earn more than two bids, but exactly who fills those spots is a long way from being determined.
- Locks: Duke
- Should Be In: North Carolina
- Bubble: Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Maryland Read more…
While a number of teams are trying to play their way onto or off the NCAA bubble, let’s give a quick congrats to the following schools who’ve put themselves into the Dance … Xavier, Richmond, Baylor, Texas A&M and Tennessee are now Locks. We also recognize … Maryland, Oklahoma State, Clemson and Marquette for vaulting forward as part of those who Should Be In. In all, 33 teams are now securely in the Field of 65. A lot more will be added during Championship Week.
Overall, there are 31 automatic bids and 34 at-large spots available. A quick break down of our Bubble Math reveals that 54 spots in the Field of 65 are taken. That leaves 11 remaining spots for 29 bubble teams. We may lose a few more bubble teams by this weekend. We might also add one or two in the coming week as conference tournments gain momentum.
The Big East (5) and Atlantic 10 (4) have the most bubble representatives. Several play each other this week and upcoming weekend. I will try and update the Bubble picture again Friday night into Saturday. You can follow conference tournament action under Conference Tourneys. Previews of larger conference tournaments will be posted early next week once the brackets are finalized. Rebounds are always welcome.
The one problem with updating Bubble Banter is that it’s always a few hours away from being outdated. That said, the latest edition is now available for review – for games played through Tuesday, February 23.
Both the Big East and Atlantic 10 continue to offer the most questions. We clearly have two well defined groups in each league. You have the Big East heavyweights and then a large group (7) of teams whose future remains uncertain. Certainly, Connecticut helped itself the most with recent wins over Villanova and West Virginia, but the Huskies can’t let up. In the A-10, Temple, Xavier and Richmond are in great shape. Then you have an interesting group comprised of Charlotte, Dayton, Rhode Island and St. Louis. Should be an interesting A-10 tournament. The ACC has five (5) teams on the bubble, but at this point there isn’t the quite the same sence of urgency.
Overall, we are projecting 20 locks and another 8 teams that should be in. There are 36 teams currently on the bubble. Depending on this week’s results, we could see some drastic changes in how those numbers look by next Wednesday. Several teams are close to moving up (and off) the bubble, while others are close to falling off. Take a look. Rebounds are always welcome.
Teams often play their way out of NCAA Contention. It’s just not always this early in February. After a less-than-stellar week for many bubble teams, we start Week 2 of Bubble Banter with 38 teams on the Bubble. Of course, that can – and will – change.
Let’s look at changes from last week … Teams that moved up to Locks: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Temple, Butler, Gonzaga … Teams moving to Should Be In: Richmond … Teams moving onto the Bubble: Cornell (down), Seton Hall (up), St. Louis (up) … Teams leaving the Bubble: Minnesota, Northwestern, Virginia, VCU, South Carolina, Tulsa. The Bracket Math looks like this …
- Locks: 18
- Should Be In: 11
- There are 31 automatic bids. We have to subtract 11 knowing that some of the locks will be automatic bids. That means if you add the 20 remaining automatic bids (likely one-bid leagues) and the 18 locks, we have 38 of 65 bids taken. If you add in the 11 teams that Should Be In, we’re now at 49. Subtract 49 from 65 and you have 16 spots available. We currently have 38 teams on the Bubble. So less than half will ultimately make the Field of 65.
Is this the year the Big East breaks the 8-team barrier? Perhaps, but there is a developing separation in the Big East standings; not a good thing for team’s below the breakline. If the Big East number reaches or surpasses eight (8) it will be because two or three teams currently below the breakline put winning streaks together.
It’s looking more and more like five (5) max from the Big 10. Minnesota lost at Northwestern who subsequently lost to Penn State at home. Again, there is a clear breakline between the top and bottom tier. The SEC is much less defined. Whether or not teams like Ole Miss and Mississippi State can slide up remains a question. It doesn’t help that Arkansas leads the SEC West. Florida continues to live on the edge, too. In the Mountain West, once solid UNLV has slipped. Yet, the real question remains San Diego State. Plenty of possibilities from the Colonial, too. Old Dominion has the best profile, William & Mary has a stronger non-conference effort, and Northeastern co-leads the conference. How about the Atlantic 10? Rhode Island, Charlotte and Dayton are losing league ground the upstart St. Louis.
Count on some interesting moments in conference tournaments … and in this weekend’s BracketBuster games. Remember, teams earn bids, not conferences. What matters is having one of the best 34 at-large resumes come March 14.
The NCAA Tournament bubble is expanding right now. That’s probably not a big surprise. History suggests it might even become more fluid in the next seven days before teams play their way in or out heading into conference tournaments. More on the tournaments to come.
The latest version of Bubble Banter at Bracketville has been updated through Games on February 8. Most notably, Georgetown has fallen on the bubble and joined Notre Dame as once highly regarded NCAA teams who’ve fallen on hard times. Several other teams including Cincinnati and Kansas State have been added. Then we have the Mountain West where the top four teams are all on the bubble.
Our next Bubble Banter update will be Sunday, February 13. In between, we’ll offer Bubble Banter tidbits as different posts or in our Around the Rim columns.
Bubble Banter provides information about teams – insight into their road ahead – power numbers (RPI and SOS) – and upcoming schedule. We’ll offer some Bracket Bits in Around the Hoop. These will become frequent now that we’re into February. Have thoughts? Send us a rebound – Dave the Bracketguy.
It wasn’t a good couple of weeks for some NCAA hopefuls. And we’re not just talking about Georgetown and Notre Dame. Miami-FL, Kentucky, and Baylor have all taken swoons onto the Bubble here at Bracketville.
You can keep up with the latest bubble news in Bubble Banter.
As we hit and pass the midpoint of the conference season, league pecking order becomes more important. As such, the teams above have significant work ahead. They must either stay above the fray or climb above it. There are certainly bids to be had – and someone will get them – but name recognition alone won’t be enough. Have bubble thoughts? Send us a rebound – Bracketguy.